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Musk stated on the CC that to get to 10K/week they'll have to move S/X pack integration to the Gigafactory.

Martin Viecha - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.

Hey. This is Martin. I have just two very quick questions. The first one is on the battery production for S and X. Is there any plan to move it to the Gigafactory?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

For pack production.
 
The cash payments will generally lag from the installation and set up of factory equipment. The negotiated terms with the equipment suppliers will determine this. Many times they are anywhere from 15 days to 3 months. On the earnings conference call there was some passing reference to this, but it was when a few people were talking so I don't think it was really made clear.

I think I remember 60 days, but I might be wrong
 
What's your estimate how soon these Gigafactories can start coming online?

Gigafactory 1 broke ground in 4Q14 and started production Jan 2017, so two years, but next round may be more efficient.

I think Model Y production may start in 2Q19 in very small units at Gigafactory 1 & Fremont, and scale up at Gigafactories 3-6 by end-2019.

Similar to how Tesla is starting Solar Roof production at Fremont then Gigafactory 2 after two quarters.
That is not going to happen! They are clearly planning to build the MY using a scaled down version of alien dreadnaught production technology. Why and how would they build a mini production line at Fremont first?
 
Tesla opens Gigafactory to expand battery production, sales

Most immediately, Tesla needs the batteries for its fourth car, the Model 3 sedan, which is scheduled to go on sale at the end of next year. At a starting price of around $35,000, the Model 3 will be Tesla's least expensive vehicle, partly because of battery cost reductions. The batteries for Tesla's current vehicles, the Model S sedan and Model X SUV, are made in Japan.

Tesla unveiled the Model 3 at the end of March. Within a week, more than 325,000 people had put down a $1,000 deposit to reserve the car. After seeing that level of demand, Tesla moved its production plans forward. The company now says it will make 500,000 vehicles per year by 2018, two years earlier than scheduled.

To meet that goal, Gigafactory construction is proceeding at a furious pace. Inside the factory, Tesla's partner, Panasonic Corp.—which has invested $1.6 billion into the factory—is installing machines in sealed, humidity-controlled rooms that will start making battery cells before the end of this year.

Panasonic is also shipping cells from Japan to the Powerwall business, which is operating in another section of the factory. Robots are used to place battery packs into home and office units, which store energy from solar panels and allow users to tap it during peak periods. Musk said the Powerwall business will initially make up about one-third of the Gigafactory's output, but eventually could expand to around half.
 
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That is not going to happen! They are clearly planning to build the MY using a scaled down version of alien dreadnaught production technology. Why and how would they build a mini production line at Fremont first?

OK. Now that you stated my prediction has zero chance of becoming reality with absolute certainty and bolded words (similar to our Model 3 ASP discussion), what is your estimate of Model Y timeline/strategy?
 
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Musk stated on the CC that to get to 10K/week they'll have to move S/X pack integration to the Gigafactory.

Martin Viecha - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.

Hey. This is Martin. I have just two very quick questions. The first one is on the battery production for S and X. Is there any plan to move it to the Gigafactory?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

For pack production.

Context matters:

Martin Viecha - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.

Hey. This is Martin. I have just two very quick questions. The first one is on the battery production for S and X. Is there any plan to move it to the Gigafactory?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

For pack production. <- Should have been a question mark.

Martin Viecha - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.

Yes.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

(74:07) production? We do not – in the short term, we will not be moving it. So sometime next year, we may move it sometime next year in order to make space for additional production volume of Model 3. That's one of the things under consideration. But in the short term we're keeping it here in Fremont. But it is going be tricky to squeeze in all the space for increased Model 3 production. Particularly, if that run rate goes above 10,000 units a week then we're going to have to move more stuff out.

Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. And it may just be worth a reminder also that the cells for S and X are actually still 18-650 lithium-ion and those are coming from a different production pathway in Japan. Very similar technology. Yes. Almost same technology.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. Internal source actually.

Jonathan McNeill - Tesla, Inc.

Yes. But different supply chain. Different set of geography.
 
OK. Now that you stated my prediction has zero chance of becoming reality with absolute certainty (similar to our Model 3 ASP discussion), what is your estimate of Model Y timeline/strategy?

my 2 c.
Chances of Model Y Osbourning Model 3 is there. So as long as Model 3 is selling as hot cakes, doesn't make sense to expedite ModelY.
I think that is why we have the Semi first - as an in-between move.

that said .. I think as Model 3 ramp up is complete and we have the target run rate for like 2 quarters(say 3Q/4Q 2018) we will see Model Y announcements. Also since Model Y will be based on Model 3 architecture, time to market will be a lot quicker.
 
my 2 c.
Chances of Model Y Osbourning Model 3 is there. So as long as Model 3 is selling as hot cakes, doesn't make sense to expedite ModelY.
I think that is why we have the Semi first - as an in-between move.

that said .. I think as Model 3 ramp up is complete and we have the target run rate for like 2 quarters(say 3Q/4Q 2018) we will see Model Y announcements. Also since Model Y will be based on Model 3 architecture, time to market will be a lot quicker.

Incremental revenue/profit from Model Y would be multiple times of any Osborne on Model 3.
 
Alright guys, here is my speculation (not that I was much right in the past).

I work in the periphery of the bond markets. My prediction is that the bonds will get priced very favorably. Based on standard ratings, the bonds would be so called non-investment grade. However, the debt market has been very hot for a few years now, thanks to near infinite liquidity by central banks around the world. Per my estimation the bonds will get priced around 5% coupon.

Secondly, I believe there will be an unexpected amount of demand for these bonds. Globally there are 100s of billions of $s looking for so called green investments. They generally look for bonds (as opposed to equity). Don't have references handy but you can search them up. I see no issue of these bonds taken up what so ever. Pricing might even come in better than expected as well.

Roadshow is Aug 7 to 10. I think either 10th evening or 11th pricing comes out. My speculation is that the stock will rally hard on the news.
 
Tesla opens Gigafactory to expand battery production, sales

Panasonic is also shipping cells from Japan to the Powerwall business, which is operating in another section of the factory. Robots are used to place battery packs into home and office units, which store energy from solar panels and allow users to tap it during peak periods. Musk said the Powerwall business will initially make up about one-third of the Gigafactory's output, but eventually could expand to around half.
Might have been their plan in 2016.

I believe that they are currently using only cells produced at the Gigafactory for all TE and M3 packs.
 
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Do we have an understanding of where Tesla is spending the ~$2B(?) in second half cap-ex?

They presumably have the Model 3 production line already in place. Construction seems to have paused on the Gigafactory. They're still building Superchargers. Parts for Model 3? What else?

I recall running across some supercharger figures in the 10Q. Something along the lines of 235 million for current superchargers (not sure if it's what it is valued at or costs). If they triple the superchargers then that value/cost would be approx 750 million, so I am making the assumption that they will be putting at least 0.5 billion into helping to build out the superchargers.
 
OK. Now that you stated my prediction has zero chance of becoming reality with absolute certainty and bolded words (similar to our Model 3 ASP discussion), what is your estimate of Model Y timeline/strategy?

Tesla certainly has a problem in terms of Demand being 10x greater then Supply. Its a good problem to have, but solving this problem will be what separates the men from the boyz, or women from the girlz if that suits you better.

VA's thought is not completely out the question. The reason being that its going to take a lot of time to find/build a factory and put in things like stamping presses that already exist in Fremont. In theory, they could build what VA is alluding to in any large building with parts from Fremont to facilitate the alpha/beta and RC process as well as some of the initial production ramp issues WHILE they build the actual manufacturing facility and install the $50 Million stamping presses. Ideally this new temporary facility would be close to Fremont and could even be a new building on the same campus. This would allow them to shorten the time to market because they do not have wait until the new factory is completely built out to start building release candidates. New robots go to the new facility and are installed based on what was learned on the prototype line. This would speed that part of the ramp.

The prototype line can then be re-purposed for the Tesla Truck or Roadster or some other vehicle.
 
my 2 c.
Chances of Model Y Osbourning Model 3 is there. So as long as Model 3 is selling as hot cakes, doesn't make sense to expedite ModelY.
I think that is why we have the Semi first - as an in-between move.
I have a similar but slightly different take.

It makes sense to expedite the Model Y, because it'll be in greater world-wide demand than the 3, but it doesn't make sense to talk about it or promote it too soon.

To put it bluntly, Tesla would rather have someone buy a Model 3 for a year, then sell it to buy a Model Y, rather than just have them wait and only buy a Model Y.

So, I'd be surprised if we see an early Model Y reveal event that implies a 2+ year lead time vs. a 1+ year Model 3 reservation time. I think Tesla will instead go guns blazing with a secretive 6-12 month Model Y reveal to production.
 
OK. Now that you stated my prediction has zero chance of becoming reality with absolute certainty and bolded words (similar to our Model 3 ASP discussion), what is your estimate of Model Y timeline/strategy?
I didn't disagree with your projected numbers. I disagreed with your statement that Tesla would build production MY's on a pilot production line at the Fremont factory. You did answer my question, why would they do that?

No idea. I haven't even thought about that. Wild guess would be sometime in 2019. Based on thinking that Tesla just completed a very agressive two year ramp of the M3, which started after the reveal. I guess it's possible that they have already build MY's without doing an associated reveal. But I don't believe that they can start negotiating a suppliers and keep it secret so...
 
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That's pretty close to correct. Basically, the Company drafts a stock plan requesting X amount of shares as a pool to grant. This plan has to be filed with the proxy and approved by a majority of stockholders. If approved, Tesla can grant up to that amount of shares to employees, but no more. If they want to grant more, they must come back to shareholders with another request for more shares and a majority must approve, otherwise they can't issue more shares to employees.

One key point is that forfeited shares (99% of the time) are permitted to come back into the plan. So, you'll see tons of grants and expenses, but many of these get reversed out when people terminate before the grant is vested. Tesla grants deep into its workforce, it's a very high turnover company and just about everyone is leaving behind equity when they quit/get fired, so the grant figures you are seeing greatly overstate what's actually going out to employees.

Thus, you'll typically see companies come back to seek stock plan approval (often requesting more shares) about every 5 years (though that's mainly for Code Section 162(m) purposes, I won't get into that unless you want me to).

You can see all past share approvals on Form S-8 in EDGAR if you want to see exactly what has been authorized for grant in the past. Each stock plan share pool has to be registered with the SEC, there's a filing fee, a prospectus has to be drafted for participants, etc. There's nothing being hidden and you won't wake up one day and find that employee grants greatly diluted the stock or something.
Honestly, I'm going to have to dig through and find out how much has been authorized for the stock plans some time, but it would be awfully convenient if anyone else does so first if they would *post the links and their conclusion*.
 
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I have a similar but slightly different take.

It makes sense to expedite the Model Y, because it'll be in greater world-wide demand than the 3, but it doesn't make sense to talk about it or promote it too soon.
images-2.jpeg

M3 is Osbourning MY
 
Alright guys, here is my speculation (not that I was much right in the past).

I work in the periphery of the bond markets. My prediction is that the bonds will get priced very favorably. Based on standard ratings, the bonds would be so called non-investment grade. However, the debt market has been very hot for a few years now, thanks to near infinite liquidity by central banks around the world. Per my estimation the bonds will get priced around 5% coupon.
That would be awesome. At that rate Tesla should sell all they can!

Secondly, I believe there will be an unexpected amount of demand for these bonds. Globally there are 100s of billions of $s looking for so called green investments. They generally look for bonds (as opposed to equity). Don't have references handy but you can search them up. I see no issue of these bonds taken up what so ever. Pricing might even come in better than expected as well.

Roadshow is Aug 7 to 10. I think either 10th evening or 11th pricing comes out. My speculation is that the stock will rally hard on the news.
 
Tesla short sellers lose almost $800 million as stock rallies after earnings

To show their great dismay over Tesla's "burning massive amounts of cash" to accomplish its goal; short sellers burn their own pallets of cash. I wonder if this is just to show us what it looks like in their eyes. Yeah, we get it. "Burn" cash to build a herculean empire which could forever change the face of human transport, or burn cash to see what a giant pile of ash looks like. What a great comparison. Not. :rolleyes:
 
I have a similar but slightly different take.

It makes sense to expedite the Model Y, because it'll be in greater world-wide demand than the 3, but it doesn't make sense to talk about it or promote it too soon.

To put it bluntly, Tesla would rather have someone buy a Model 3 for a year, then sell it to buy a Model Y, rather than just have them wait and only buy a Model Y.

So, I'd be surprised if we see an early Model Y reveal event that implies a 2+ year lead time vs. a 1+ year Model 3 reservation time. I think Tesla will instead go guns blazing with a secretive 6-12 month Model Y reveal to production.

Y'all at WAY overthinking this. If Tesla could produce 10 million Model 3/Y's in the next three years, there would still be a waiting list.

We all had varying degrees of concern with Model 3 Osborning Model S, and that proved naive. Model Y may slightly Osborne Model X, but not Model 3 or Model S. If Tesla does a nice job with Model Y design (and I expect that they will), it may even increase demand for Tesla's other products, but this is not important.

Tesla's valuation is primarily dependent on supply.

More specifically: how many cars can Tesla produce and sell before Apple builds multiple Gigafactories?
 
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