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Be careful out there. While futures market does not always follow through into the day the NAZ futures are not good and some longs on margin are hurting. Sell side analysts and shorts are in control (IMO).
I wish I could be short term optimistic but I am not.
EDIT: If you are buy/hold long this too shall pass. (Had to add at least something positive)
This ride down the rollercoaster is my first with significant skin in the game (100% buy and hold). Started accumulating November last year. I knew this is what I was signing up for when jumping in but the thought experiment is certainly different than the actual experience. Basically just trying not to look
If price is a function of incipient slope (two weeks forward looking derivative), then what compares to the Model 3 announcement in July?
The Semi with partner announcement in September. On top of model 3 uptick in production. Should push stock back to comparable price levels.
Not an advice, but a theory.
The Semi with partner announcement in September. On top of model 3 uptick in production. Should push stock back to comparable price levels.
Not an advice, but a theory.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
It's a bear pile on with the crash report news, I expect further bleeding today.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Appreciate if these warnings are posted before (not after) TSLA -17% in a week, thanks
.
fwiw, I've started buying trading shares here in $316s (on top of core shares I've never sold since initiating in 2012). I'm ready to add in bits and pieces down to about $286 plus, then again in $250s and $220s (not saying those will happen by any means... still just as confident here of the stock's underlying considerably higher value as I was 3 weeks ago while trading in the $370s, but I've seen "Mr. Market" temporarily misprice it by amounts even greater than "he" currently does).
my thoughts are little changed from what I wrote here 3 weeks ago yesterday while we were in the $370s (post #10811 below).
what's changed? it looks like the market is currently pricing TSLA at $330 +/-$50 or $380 +/`$50, but, not $430 +/-$50, though, we may be priced there within a few months.
with the last earnings call and the shareholder meeting, something else changed... Elon's comments about 10, 12 maybe 20 GFs, and implication of, at least some GFs, producing 1.25 million to 1.5 million vehicles, among some other very encouraging comments have substantially raised the target I see this company aimed at. With that, I started adding back trading shares here around $316, slightly higher than the $310 or so I sold off the last of my trading shares a few months ago.
my thoughts are little changed from what I wrote here 3 weeks ago yesterday while we were in the $370s (post #10811 below).
what's changed? it looks like the market is currently pricing TSLA at $330 +/-$50 or $380 +/`$50, but, not $430 +/-$50, though, we may be priced there within a few months.
with the last earnings call and the shareholder meeting, something else changed... Elon's comments about 10, 12 maybe 20 GFs, and implication of, at least some GFs, producing 1.25 million to 1.5 million vehicles, among some other very encouraging comments have substantially raised the target I see this company aimed at. With that, I started adding back trading shares here around $316, slightly higher than the $310 or so I sold off the last of my trading shares a few months ago.
Need to short more.(best of luck)
Are you net gains or net Losses like Andrew Luck?
As long as Elon is at the helm - I'm not selling.
I bet you he wrote this directly. This is a full on assault that was likely timed based on the final release of the model 3.
Tesla responds to newly released Model S crash-test rating
I bet you he wrote this directly. This is a full on assault that was likely timed based on the final release of the model 3.
Tesla responds to newly released Model S crash-test rating
what's more, despite the fact I saw almost zero media coverage of it, Tesla made the base Model S and Model X substantially more attractive to performance minded buyers compared to the BMW 5 series and Mercedes E class last week by taking more than a full second off the 0-60 time. that base Model S, is priced competitively with the 5 series when considering fueling savings, is safer, and now far quicker.
perhaps I wouldn't be the only person surprised to find out that the 5 series sells globally in volumes not too far off the 3 series... about 330-370K per year vs. 400-500K the past few years (looking at links below, you can see that while in the US, the 3 series sells about 3-4X as much as the 5 series, for global sales its actually only about 25% more than the 5 series- i.e., those of us in the U.S. may not appreciate how big a part of BMW's revenues and profits the 5 series represents). A potential base Model S rated with ~300 miles of range and able to recharge 80% in 20 minutes within a few years would be very very strong competition for the 5 series or E class. If there's a plateau here for S/X, I don't think it will last long. Yes, by ~2021, 5 series and E class may begin to be offered in all electric, but, will not have the track record, scale of available supply, or charging network of the Model S.
BMW 5 Series - Wikipedia
BMW 3 Series - Wikipedia
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Because the production line maxes out right around 100k. Even if there was demand for 200k, Tesla wouldn't be able to build them.
I'm surprised people keep discussing all this other stuff and are forgetting the tesla imposed supply constraint.
Perhaps after model 3 they will add or update lines, but the plan has been to Max at 100k for several years now and focus on model 3.
Agree. We all know that TSLA is a big swing stock very fast than you can imagine. when some bad news or good news pop up. Macro is definitely is major part of it. Except the short sellers, definitely there are also panic sell, plus I would say some "panic profit taking" sell, who worried if they would make less. My point is that TSLA now is at the best situation with M3 is coming in delivery starting this month. So for long term investors like me, TSLA future is much brighter. I just hold tight and enjoy the ride.
Bought more @ 365.50. Be fearless when others are being plain stupid
Appreciate if these warnings are posted before (not after) TSLA -17% in a week, thanks
His warnings were contemporaneous. The reason I posted this particular tweet is because it is instructive regarding waiting a little more, with specific targets, before playing this sell off.
It is totally worth it to follow this guy on tweeter. Thanks a lot to @geneclean55, who brought up this guy's tweeter account as worthy following.
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DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Thank you for the input! Bottom line lots of room to grow. Yesterday I looked at the numbers and battery sizes of new inventory of Ss & Xs and found only one 100D and three of P100Ds Xs. My point is that I think Tesla under shot the demand for 100Ds. I jumped at the MX 100D basically because of the added range and less range angzity. The speed, well it left my M3 reservation in the dust
I do not buy the less demand issue because there are not enough people willing to drop that kind of cash on a high end car. I think as the M3 rolls out and word of mouth touts the car sales will increase across the board. Anyone that drives my car or rides in it is totally amazed ~ especially the grandkids and rocket grandpa
Just because the 3s are beginning is not reason enough to suggest a slowing of Ss & Xs. There will be a cross over between the two higher end and the one lower end initially which I will say should be expected. Elon even stated it recently 1Q17 reporting, if I am not mistaken the confusion between the S & 3. There will be folks like me that will move up the food chain and there will be those that will move down in the food chain ~ not intended to be derogatory. Buyers will buy what fits their needs. Example if I was still commuting back and forth to Puyallup from Olympia to teach my college computer classes, I would have stayed with the Model 3. Since we are now both retired and downsized our car requirements to one the X made perfect sense. This kind of cross over will be an issue only while the 3s are transitioning from zero available to thousands per month. Add to that the range of the 100D or P100D and sales will continue to grow with the higher end cars
IMHO
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Sold a Jan 18 370 Put for 73$. Time premium is 16$. if it get's exercised, will cost me $300
Hey, wanna buy some more at a better price? I can do you 500 @365, if you want?
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