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bdy0627
Active Member
I hear you and can definitely see how things can get ugly in terms of being over-leveraged with a prolonged dip as you start to pick up more shares/LEAPs even with modest drops. The difference right now is that I would not be doing this if Tesla wasn't at such a historic position in the near to medium term. The way I view things with Tesla is that if it doesn't do extremely well over the next 12 months, there is a very serious problem with my perspective or the market in general. The probability of those things being true is definitely not zero but much less I think than the probability of Tesla arriving where we all know it is going.There will be lots of volatility along the way of course.
As for buying this dip, maybe split it up. If Elon announces the M3 reveal next week you may wish you had bought this dip. If it goes down further, you will wish you had waited. So, consider a modest buy now and then wait for the next trend to develop.
Repost from two weeks ago today (#10823),
"Market drops of 20% or more are not at all uncommon. We haven't had one for over 8 years... my understanding is that we have now moved into record territory for time since the last such drop compared tot the last 120 years (not saying this means some mechanical fated drop in the next few months, but, it's very unlikely we won't have at least one 20% drop or worse in the markets before the mid-next decade, a timeframe many of us use with Tesla). Drops of 30%, 40%, 50+% happen (wasn't the '08 drop more than 33%?). Tesla being a stock that has soared, would likely drop more than the market if we get to something in the 20+% range for the market. While I'm highly confident all of this would be temporary, that would be of little help to someone forced out of their position with a margin call."
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Well said. To add to that, even though TSLA is a high growth company with new promising products coming out, remember Apple in 2008, fresh after the iPhone release and ATH in late 2007, dropped from $28 to $17 in early 2008, recovered by mid 2008, and dropped from $25 to $12 in late 2008. The happy ending is that by mid 2009, none of that mattered.
T3slaTulips
Member
So far it's 8.5% (ATH 386.99 > 354.10 low of day as of now). 10% will be 348.29; 20% will be 309.59.
Without at least a correction in Nasdaq AND something REALLY bad happening to Tesla, I would say the chance of down 20% is slim near future (3-6 months). 10% looks so close now. Being optimistic, I'd say SP is more likely back to $370 territory, than down there first.
Very good example. If you are able to have high confidence of where things have a high probability of heading long term, just ride this stuff out. To do so, you need to remeber to use your funds in a way that allows you to ride these things out. If you plan well enough, a down move becomes an opportunity to add more core or some trading shares (as long as the move is not related to a change in the company's prospects).
I'm still agnostic as to whether we are at the start of a 20+% selloff... the point is making investments that can do well whether or not we are.
Fwiw, there's only two companies I've had that kind of confidence forecasting long-term (5-10 year) very high probability large gains. Tesla is only the second individual stock I've invested in over the last 17.5 years.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yes. It was basically a 50% fall. I put the "wasn't it more than 33%" part in there because the comment I was responding to had implied something less concerning.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
I went to go buy 100 shares at $355, but it never quite got there. If this is the bottom, I will have missed out on a nice buying opportunity. If it drops further, I'll go ahead and make that purchase.
No leverage. Buy and hold. TSLA makes up ~15% of my net worth.
No leverage. Buy and hold. TSLA makes up ~15% of my net worth.
Well everything's in free-fall, but the great news for us is that TSLA has a M3 reveal just around the corner along with a ramping production. I expect any losses now to be very short-lived indeed.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Agreed in all ways.
One lesson from above example is that market often peeks before the product is out! Do not discount possibility that we've seen local max for awhile. Do not bet too heavy on recovery.
Another lesson is that fall can be deep and prolonged, so even '19 leaps are not absolutely safe, though probably quite safe. In '16 I lost on leaps that were bought about a year before expiry date.
And final lesson, if you can sit out the fall, nothing matters. Just make sure you can sit out deep, prolonged fall.
I think it might be worth looking up the price history of Tesla's "release the D" tweet from Elon and the days after the announcement. This time, I have no idea whether the market thinks it already has more than priced in the 3 or not. Maybe with the reality of the event happening, it goes up sharply, maybe it drops considerably. I'm holding all my core shares, because whichever unpredictable way the market sees it in the next month, I'm very confident the stock is undervalued for what the next decade will bring.
Again, a couple of unedited and complete rerun comments from two weeks ago,
#10811
"I don't think anyone can have very much confidence as to just what mix of the following has led to this run into the $380s, most of these items running for months now,
- "market" bidding the stock up on anticipation of the Model 3 launch and some gems in the past few months (i.e. 3 or 4 more GFs to be announced, probably this year)
- "market" as a whole rallying for tech/growth stocks
- a fundamental reassessment of Tesla's value over the last 6+ months by the market as a whole
- traders exaggerating the move. by traders, I don't mean Tesla lovers or haters, but lovers of the opportunity to trade the momentum in either direction that super high volatility like TSLA currently offers
- some amount of short-covering rally
- "market" absorbing Elon's comments last week that were quite suggestive of a much much more bullish aspiration for vehicle sales business (think Toyota volumes, or possibly far more, with Porsche margins) despite a near media blackout in mentioning, let alone thinking through the implications of the ~ultimately 10 to 12 maybe 20 GFs~ comment
- other I'm sure you all can remind me of
My confidence in teasing out what is driving this is so minimal I think of the stock price with a +/-$50 next to it. Only, I'm not so sure if it is currently a $383 +/-$50, $433 +/-$50, or $333 +/-$50 (and that's not even including the range that a potential market selloff would bring, though, not a lasting impact on TSLA).
So what do I do? Same as I did when it galloped from $40 to $90 in days, and then on up to $180 a few months later in 2013. I've sold my trading shares $70 ago, but, as to my core shares, have not let go of a single one as the stock is still below the valuation on future earnings I have modeled... that is precisely I why I held all core shares through 2013 with stock prices that made me a little hyper, and is keeping me holding every one of them now, a bit hyper again, but less so than 4 years ago."
And #10989
"I've seen some discussion of "buying the dip" here,
I think it's worth remembering that our low 3 weeks ago today was $307.81.
As I said yesterday, I have little idea whether the stock price currently is $383 +/-$50, $433 +/-$50 or $333 +/-$50. The bit in those figures I have by far the most confidence in is the +/-$50, and by price, I mean what we will see quoted, not my valuation of the company.
To be clear, I think the shares are currently undervalued for a long term investment (hang onto any core shares!), but, I have seen repeatedly with Tesla and my previous individual stock investment, Celgene, that what seems like a bargain sale/dip, weeks later, sometimes only days later, actually comes to look like the upper realms of the high riding days."
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I like that double bottom at $355 fib level and bounce on the 1 min chart.
Saving buying power in case we see lower bollinger band at about $343.9 during the next days and some just in case we see even lower figures.
Added to mid term calls and leaps during the day.
Thoughts?!
Saving buying power in case we see lower bollinger band at about $343.9 during the next days and some just in case we see even lower figures.
Added to mid term calls and leaps during the day.
Thoughts?!
bdy0627
Active Member
Just looked at those charts and AAPL clearly followed Nasdaq and markets into the bearish drop. Good reminder that no matter how strong Tesla may seem, it's not likely to buck a bearish market. You have to have a bull market going to propel TSLA. I need to keep that in mind. The J19 LEAPs are likely pretty safe but definitely not as safe as stock if the market rolls over for a while. Man that would be rough timing with Tesla's upcoming catalysts. Sure hope that's not the case. A 10% or so correction isn't such a big deal.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
When did you start to have the $350 level in mind? When the market dropped to $355 and you just wanted a little bit more? The market has an uncanny ability to take advantage of our greed
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