2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[DragonWatch]

Apologies if this was covered before. Why is a country whose bulk of wealth depends on oil wants to be a role model in going away from fossil fuels?

Sure they might care about the planet. But isn’t their daily living going away much sooner with this?

If the outside world is addicted to fossil fuel, what is stopping them from going the opposite direction? The outside world knows little of their country, and probably does not see them on their daily radar.

Germany moved to solar power (panels) since I left there in 1993, and it is only in recent years did we even publicly become aware they were in the process.

Awareness?

 

[avoigt]

Apologies if this was covered before. Why is a country whose bulk of wealth depends on oil wants to be a role model in going away from fossil fuels?

Sure they might care about the planet. But isn’t their daily living going away much sooner with this?

Not sure if caring about the planned is the driver here but likely its more caring about their BIP.

Norway like Saudi Arabia have understood that fossil fuel demand will sooner or later swing into a constant decline and bottoming out in 100 years or so on a much lower level. Renewal energy is going to be cheaper than any energy produced through fossils will cost. Today as they are still very wealthy given their resources they invest in the " day after".

For you guys in the US gas is much cheaper for political reasons as in Europe otherwise the crowd likely would burn the WH down ..... To give you an example: German Gas about 1,60€/Liter so a filled car about 75€ versus an Electric (renewable energy ) charged car (same range) about 70 - 80% less. Thats the reality in German today and will be in the future in other countries as well. I predict that this gap will even increase.

I would call it a smart and good approach to keep the living standards they are used to. Without this making sense economically the entire movement would be a non starter as only rich people and countries would buy an EV or Solar Roof.

 

[JRP3]

The production lines are completely custom and all the parts are hand machined in Japan then shipped here and assembled.

I have trouble believing this. Hand machined, in this day and age? Plus there are plenty of companies here in the US capable of machining items, one of them I expect would be Tesla. I'd also think the GF would have it's own machine shop.

 

[kenliles]

I have trouble believing this. Hand machined, in this day and age? Plus there are plenty of companies here in the US capable of machining items, one of them I expect would be Tesla. I'd also think the GF would have it's own machine shop.

agree- there's no way they are actually hand-machined imo.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This is the part that I find most troubling - that the Gigafactory is potentially having issues with unreliable power from NV Energy. SolarCity's opportunities in Las Vegas and the surrounding areas were disrupted by NV Energy's efforts because of their desire to cling to the existing paradigm which includes significant fossil fuel power production in the state. That issue really reeked to me and I sorely wished the last administration would have called them out on national news for obstructing the growth of clean energy opportunities given Nevada's California-like potential for solar opportunities. Something does not smell good here if there is any truth to this claim. I understand that it will be many years before GF1 is completely off the grid with solar and wind like the original drawings suggested...........but the sooner the better!

Thanks for all you efforts to post this, @zdriver!

You raise a very interesting point. I now, too, wonder if this is the case.

 

[DragonWatch]

Sounds like information is finall rising as to what is happening or causing production delays, if true.

If I am correct, I am hearing major changes happening with the interior of both the S & X, management issues on Panasonic’s side, and PR’s electrical recovery. Probably more too.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t a Chinese or Japanese company recently fold because it failed to rid itself of incompeten employees? It had been an old company too. Meaning it had been around for many years before the dead weight crushed it? Again, if I am correct, this same problem with dead wood/weight is what we saw with the jettisoned four hundred employees by Tesla. The same goes with management. Not all managers are created equal ~ how many times over the years have the bears latched on the loss of key management? So far, each time the Tesla team continues to roll on

There is a very positive note here if the M3 production issue is in fact the battery side. How many existing car companies have recently declared their move away from fossil fuel to EV production and are almost totally clueless as to what it truly takes to produce an EV? I am sure someone can point to other GFs popping up, but really? There have recently been posts or articles about cheap batteries being produced in mass quantities, but how long willf they last once on the street? Word of mouth today is Tesla, and anyone suspected of critical thinking is already owing or buying an S, X, or 3 (waiting list). Who wants to buy a twenty thousand dollar car every three to five years when they can buy a M3 with the newest technology and have it last longer than other cars? The demand created by word of mouth is what will drive demand for Tesla, not silly commercials. Oh, and of course the harder fossil fuel pushes the higher the EV demand.

Once this clears and production finally ramps up, please do not get in its way

Also, until Tesla/Elon finally tell their version, we are only speculating ~ me included!

Full disclosure ~ I picked up 16 more shares Friday I have no clue where this stock is actually going, failed math 102; I am dyed in the wool Tesla for the movement, and I am not talking bowel movement

 

[3Victoria]

I am concerned about the veracity the various rumours we have been hearing in the last week. Fortunately Nov 1st is rapidly approaching so we may settle out a bit after the quarter results.

 

[DragonWatch]

This is the part that I find most troubling - that the Gigafactory is potentially having issues with unreliable power from NV Energy. SolarCity's opportunities in Las Vegas and the surrounding areas were disrupted by NV Energy's efforts because of their desire to cling to the existing paradigm which includes significant fossil fuel power production in the state. That issue really reeked to me and I sorely wished the last administration would have called them out on national news for obstructing the growth of clean energy opportunities given Nevada's California-like potential for solar opportunities. Something does not smell good here if there is any truth to this claim. I understand that it will be many years before GF1 is completely off the grid with solar and wind like the original drawings suggested...........but the sooner the better!

Thanks for all you efforts to post this, @zdriver!

The early on design renderings of the GF included a massive array of solar panels coming from then SCTY. Where are they fitting into this situation? I find it hard to believe Tesla/Elon is totally relying on Los Vegas for power Trying a little humor here. This just does not sound right to me Is he really dancing around this problem ~ get it, night club dancing in Los Vegas

Just as parking. With the total recall, okay, I mean design detail we see of Elon, I find it hard to believe parking was not considered an integral overall part of the architectural layout. I drove out to the GF last year and I was about the only car on the road, granted it was not 0730 Also, there was a manned guard shack with two lanes going into the property. No, drawbridge entry.

I have lived too many years around military posts, and have only once or twice encountered surge back ups of traffic going onto a post. Usually, a surge situation was caused due to an emergency and caused a change in procedures. In all cases, it was rectified quickly.

If actuall physical parking is a problem, then why did Tesla not put in parking garages? Still, why not do it now? They put in garage style parking while I was attending El Camino Community College. So, I think Tesla, and them employees are able to handle it. Where are the drone films of the backed up traffic? There used to be folks that would take the time to film the progress of the GF

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Does anyone here have extensive corporate valuation experience?

 

[mmd]

Does anyone know who is paying for the Puerto Rico Powerpack projects? It isn't as if PR's credit is stellar...

It's a donation for now. Likely will be permanent.
Tesla Restores Power To San Juan Children's Hospital

"As for who is paying for the power system, the head of the hospital tells Nuevo Dia that for now, it's a donation — and that after the energy crisis is over, a deal could make it permanent."

 

[geneclean55]

"Gigafactory 1 currently has four lines of machines, with 14 machines in each line. Each machine is capable of more then 500,000 batteries per month, so all together the equivalent of ~10,000 Model 3s per month, and have been producing at that rate for at least the last two months"


4416 cells are required per long range M3. That equates to enough batteries being produced to fill 6340 long range M3s per month (if each machine produces exactly 500,000).

Tesla Model 3: Exclusive first look at Tesla’s new battery pack architecture

 

[geneclean55]

There has to be some kind of deal in the works for Puerto Rico that we haven't heard about yet.
Half the Gigafactory is currently pumping out batteries for Puerto Rico? I assume thats not all donation...

 

[Fallenone]

Does anyone know who is paying for the Puerto Rico Powerpack projects? It isn't as if PR's credit is stellar...

The hospital project is a donation until the crisis is over. Then they may enter talks on whether to make it permanent and what the payment would be.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

There may not be a problem at GF1 but yesterday there was news on NHK about Japanese industrial quality in general (video) "Made in Japan" Crisis- News - NHK WORLD - English

 

[Cosmacelf]

It's a donation for now. Likely will be permanent.
Tesla Restores Power To San Juan Children's Hospital

"As for who is paying for the power system, the head of the hospital tells Nuevo Dia that for now, it's a donation — and that after the energy crisis is over, a deal could make it permanent."

Thanks. Hmm. PR move. Could be worse I guess.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Btw, there is no charity deduction for businesses. There is no need. All expenses are 100% tax deductible by definition. Donations just reduce/increase profits/losses.

 

[AlMc]

Btw, there is no charity deduction for businesses. There is no need. All expenses are 100% tax deductible by definition. Donations just reduce/increase profits/losses.

Bingo

 

[Waiting4M3]

Thanks. Hmm. PR move. Could be worse I guess.

PR? Do you mean Purto Rico or Public Relations?

 

[EinSV]

It's all about the Model 3 right now but as a longer term data point someone on reddit posted the other day that Tesla has posted positions for 48 roofers in California, which suggests it may be getting prepared to start the initial Solar Roof ramp early next year. 24 are "Lead Roofers" and 24 are "Roofer 1s," so presumably 24 teams to start. Search for Jobs | Tesla (search for "roofer")

Edit: Noticed that there are a few exceptions (Foster City, Milpitas, Sacramento) but most of these positions seem to be in SoCal or other areas that don't get much rain (almost none in the SF Bay Area). I am no expert and speculative but that might suggest they plan to start initially with a focus on SoCal during what would be the rainy season in NorCal (November-March, roughly).

As a quick follow-up to the post above, I did a search for "Energy" on Tesla's careers page and there were roughly ~400 hits. Search for Jobs | Tesla

Interestingly, a large number of the postings are for sales positions, which suggests Tesla will be doing the logical thing and ramping up TE sales efforts as it begins ramping up Model 3 deliveries. Model 3 customers are prime candidates for TE products so this makes an awful lot of sense to me.

Sales hiring seems nationwide (mostly US). Hiring of roofers and electricians mostly in CA suggests Solar Roof rollout will start in CA and branch out from there.

Here are some approximate numbers of the most popular positions (quick hand count/not confirmed):

58 Energy Specialists (Sales)
51 Field Energy Advisors (Sales)
48 Roofers (all in CA)
26 Licensed electricians (all but 2 in CA)
18 Tesla Energy Advisors
17 Energy Advisors

 

[myusername]

Does anyone here have extensive corporate valuation experience?

is this a joke?