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Tesla Is Testing Self Driving Cars on California Roads
Again bullish headline, bearish data
Waymo had a much lower rate of disengagements in 2016, improving to about 0.2 disengagements per thousand miles from 0.8 a year earlier. Chief Executive Officer John Krafcik first shared the data during a speech at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit last month.
Based on that metric, Tesla disclosed a rate of about 330 disengagements per thousand miles, although the company’s vehicles traveled much fewer miles than Waymo’s on California public roads last year.
Again bullish headline, bearish data
Waymo had a much lower rate of disengagements in 2016, improving to about 0.2 disengagements per thousand miles from 0.8 a year earlier. Chief Executive Officer John Krafcik first shared the data during a speech at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit last month.
Based on that metric, Tesla disclosed a rate of about 330 disengagements per thousand miles, although the company’s vehicles traveled much fewer miles than Waymo’s on California public roads last year.
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I've been thinking about the boldfaced bit there
Sooooo, I figured the diff from Q3 car deliveries to Q4 car deliveries was about 2300 cars. At an ASP of 90K (Wild Ass Guess) and 20% margins (WAG), that's about a $41 million gap.
Tesla Energy delivered 80 MWh at Aliso. If they delivered another 40 Mwh, that's 120 Mwh. At an ASP of $400/kwh and 50% margins (WAG), that's about $24 million.
SolarCity recorded $53 million in GAAP profits in Q3 (although I know the accounting is completely hinky and that doesn't mean much). The way SCTY has been accounted for, every sale looks like a loss now (and a profit years in the future) so a sales slowdown generates accounting profits. Until the accounting changes which should happen soon (not sure sure).
Even with integration costs and R&D possibly rising for Q4, I'm thinking it's very likely that Tesla reports a narrow GAAP profit in Q4. SCTY and batteries should more than offset the miss on the car deliveries.
It's been mentioned on here in the past that SCTY accounting would start looking better in 2017 with changes to GAAP. Could tesla adjust to those changes early in Q4?
I'm not 100% sure, but the last source I found said "no"....
...OK, found a more recent source. The revenue recognition rule MUST be adopted starting in 2018, and CAN be adopted "early" in 2017. It cannot be adopted in 2016.
So Tesla doesn't *have* to adopt the more sensible accounting standard which makes their balance sheet and their P&L statement look better until Jan 2018. I suspect they'll adopt it earlier though.
racer26
Active Member
Are your sources conclusive on whether its a report issued in 2017 (like the 4Q16 report, for example) or a report on 2017 data (meaning earliest could be 1Q17) that can follow the new rule?
Haha, if there is some grey area here Tesla should do it. How much trouble could they get in for adjusting to new financial regulations a little early?
China plans to destroy an ancient Buddhist city to get the copper buried there
China plans to destroy an ancient Buddhist city to get the copper buried there
Cobalt is not mentioned in the article, but I'm suspicious that's one of the goals, as it's frequently co-located with copper. China has been securing cobalt all over the globe. And here is an extended US geological paper on the site that does indicate cobalt is likely present.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1204/pdf/02A.pdf
It seems like between this and the child labor issues in Congo, the supply chain of cobalt is a good target for a load of 'Just how ethical is Tesla anyway?' Of course they are stipulating North American supplies eventually but no one has any idea how as the mines here are small or undeveloped.
John Petersen is how *I* got introduced to the subject but of course his take was the apocalyptic market failure supply shock version. So far, we have indeed seen an exponential ramp in price. Lithium Ion batteries are already the majority of the global demand for cobalt and we haven't even begun to see the real BEV liftoff.
As an aside: There are apparently large deposits of cobalt under the ocean in certain types of ridges but they have defied economic extraction. After Elon is done building tunnels, some heroics in this department might be advised.
China plans to destroy an ancient Buddhist city to get the copper buried there
Cobalt is not mentioned in the article, but I'm suspicious that's one of the goals, as it's frequently co-located with copper. China has been securing cobalt all over the globe. And here is an extended US geological paper on the site that does indicate cobalt is likely present.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1204/pdf/02A.pdf
It seems like between this and the child labor issues in Congo, the supply chain of cobalt is a good target for a load of 'Just how ethical is Tesla anyway?' Of course they are stipulating North American supplies eventually but no one has any idea how as the mines here are small or undeveloped.
John Petersen is how *I* got introduced to the subject but of course his take was the apocalyptic market failure supply shock version. So far, we have indeed seen an exponential ramp in price. Lithium Ion batteries are already the majority of the global demand for cobalt and we haven't even begun to see the real BEV liftoff.
As an aside: There are apparently large deposits of cobalt under the ocean in certain types of ridges but they have defied economic extraction. After Elon is done building tunnels, some heroics in this department might be advised.
Perhaps a joint project between the Boring Company and Tesla Submarine mode?
Humorously I saw a Waymo behave strangely in Mountain View couple days ago, where it was proceeding through a light as it turned yellow, and then a pedestrian or something head-faked it and it stopped directly under the red light on the far side of the intersection, before the crosswalk, and just sat there a longish time with no pedestrians in front before proceeding on. Maybe in the Tesla version of this incident, the driver would have engaged.
please read the chart with the caveat that some are EV, some are PHEV, (gas plus electric) and the gas/electric ones, like the Prius, etc barely get out of the neighborhood before their battery runs out, 20 miles or so
Well, there were 0 disengagements per thousand miles on the 20 miles driven in November
Tesla Disengage Report 2016
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On a positive note, I believe Tesla's development model for FSD is very different.
Tesla is aiming to be able to drive pretty much anywhere or at least in the environments it's familiar with. But other firms are going after one block at a time type solution.
In other words if Tesla is able to do flawless autonomous driving in CA, it will naturally be able
to do that in AZ. But a google car or an Uber needs to be trained in each and every road independently.
In yet other words, Tesla is working on a highly scalable solution, while others are not.
At least this has been my understanding as to why I think Tesla might leap frog everyone out of nowhere.
I hope Musk confirms this some point this year.
Tesla is aiming to be able to drive pretty much anywhere or at least in the environments it's familiar with. But other firms are going after one block at a time type solution.
In other words if Tesla is able to do flawless autonomous driving in CA, it will naturally be able
to do that in AZ. But a google car or an Uber needs to be trained in each and every road independently.
In yet other words, Tesla is working on a highly scalable solution, while others are not.
At least this has been my understanding as to why I think Tesla might leap frog everyone out of nowhere.
I hope Musk confirms this some point this year.
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mmd
Active Member
Well, there were 0 disengagements per thousand miles on the 20 miles driven in November
Tesla Disengage Report 2016
From the table, looks like Tesla stopped testing in Nov and Dec. Am I reading it right? Is it due to winter weather? There is a long way to go for autonomous driving to drive in all conditions.
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Mike Smith
Active Member
Here is Lou Whiteman of Thestreet.com telling a direct lie:
"The company is estimated to have sold only 1,650 units in January"
Tesla sales may have really been awful in January
You can't lie and then tell the truth later in the actual article as if that makes it OK. I've noticed pretty much everything Thestreet says about Tesla is negative. Must be the Jim Cramer connection.
"The company is estimated to have sold only 1,650 units in January"
Tesla sales may have really been awful in January
You can't lie and then tell the truth later in the actual article as if that makes it OK. I've noticed pretty much everything Thestreet says about Tesla is negative. Must be the Jim Cramer connection.
Looks like it, somewhat disappointing:
Tesla had 4 self-driving Model X prototypes last year and drove over 500 autonomous miles on public roads
I highly doubt Tesla Energy has 50% margin currently. You need very high volume for that. I'd be surprised if the margin was higher than 10% right now. Of course we won't know the actual margins for a while.
They are all going to flip on the day TSLA goes to 0. Smiegel guarantees it.
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