So Tesla gets "ridicules amount of free coverage"? and "love form the greentards*" So where do we get the form to ridicule Smiegel?
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I am not sure if this is true. My spreadsheet shows total of 5,522 more cars produced than delivered in 2015 and 2016. This is pretty close to the quantity of cars in transit at the end of Q3 that were going to specific customers (5,065). The conclusion is that over last 7 quarters there were 457 cars added to the fleet of demo/inventory cars, which would be very modest increase if one takes into account new stores that were opened during this period of time, necessitating increase in total fleet of cars.
All of the demo and inventory cars are ultimately sold to the customers. Based on total quantity of stores there is probably a fleet of 2-4k of demo and inventory cars, which is being constantly refreshed. Cars from this fleet are continuously being sold to the customers. Implying that there is a pile of "thousands" of cars accumulating in unsold inventory just does NOT square with reality.
The member cryptyk apparently vetted them as actual cars in existence. He was shopping for P100D for himself. He found a lot more than that but I just wanted to give those few as examples. He said they were "for sale" however, they do not show up without using the full URL of the link. Cars sold or taken off of inventory will not appear if you use their original URL. He had a thread on the large amount of P100D inventory since he was hunting through it for a perfect match to what his goals were. he got one too and said it also had a reasonably good discount.
Here is data back to 2012.
Model S Vins
Qtr Vins built sold
2012 12-Q3 1280 352 252
Q4 2400 2,750 2,400
2013 13-Q1 6,200 5,000 4,934
Q2 7,004 5,400 5,150
Q3 6,500 5,900 5,501
Q4 6,900 6,587 6,892
2014 14-Q1 9,272 7,535 6,457
Q2 9,178 8,763 7,579
Q3 10,435 7,200 7,785
Q4 12,091 11,627 9,834
2015 15-Q1 12,259 11,160 10,045
Q2 12,315 12,807 11,532
Q3 14,769 13,091 11,603
Q4 13,383 13,530 17,192
2016 16-Q1 13,019 12,851 12,420
Q2 13,267 12,145 9,764
Q3 14,715 14,730 16,047
Which, in support of Vgrin's data, leaves just over 5,000 as in-transit and loaner/demo fleet....
Again, relevance, why is this material...more D&D theories?
If you keep refuting Bonaire's conspiracy theories with hard data and rational thought, he will cease responding to you and go back to seeking out threads on TMC with unhappy owners/owners to be to feed their unhappiness....likely has the Korean celebrity on speed dial.
I find it hard to believe they would host an event to say "we are late, we have never made a cell, we will in April." To me the fact that they are having an event at all is to say the are making cells. (probably very low volume, with poor yield, and going directly to engineers for stress/qual testing). Then talk about the building stuff since there is a lot to update, and probably say they are on schedule for the 3 ramp which is an easy thing to say at this point. Bonus would be giving guidance on TE product deliveries with new cells, but they might hold those cards close for now.
What is your point? I have similar spreadsheet going back to 2012. I am not sure where you got your data for cars produced in Q3 2014, Q3 23013 and Q2 2013 - I was not able to locate data for these quarters (shown in yellow shading below). But if I just copy your data, over all these years there were more 9,887 cars built than sold. So the grand total difference between these and pipeline of customer produced cars in Q3 2016 was 4,822 (which is about 5.9% of all Ms and MX cars produced by the end of Q3 2016). This is more or less in line with my original post.
So once again what is your point?
erthquake
Active Member
I would say so, but the problem is the shorts continue to question demand in order to support their positions, hence the focus on deliveries.
dennis
Model S Plaid
What is the basis of your current obsession with the number of cars that Tesla has in inventory? Do you know what the "right" number should be? How does it compare with the inventory carried by other manufacturers and their dealer network compared to the volume that they sell quarterly? Even specialty manufacturers like McLaren (<4000/year) who primarily build to order have inventory cars at the dealers to capture the buyer who is unwilling to wait.
I'm not concerned that Tesla is stacking up inventory cars because they don't have enough demand to match the capability of the factory to produce. Multiple reasons why:
1) CFO Jason Wheeler is focused on cash and has been since he got to Tesla. He's not going to allow extra cash to be tied up in excess inventory.
2) Tesla chose to not build any US custom orders from December for Q4 delivery, planning to deliver them in Q1 instead. They have plenty of demand.
3) Lead times for custom orders in Q4 and now Q1 are back to historic highs. No reason to build inventory cars that aren't going to be sold when customers are having to wait 3 months for delivery. They have plenty of demand.
What I think happened, partly due to the AP1 to AP2 switchover and partly based on success with inventory sales in Q3 is that Tesla ran several sales "experiments" in Q4. One was to build inventory cars early in the quarter and have them available for customers to purchase late in the quarter when the lead times for custom orders stretched out. The other was to build high margin P100D's for inventory and attempt to capture the 4th quarter bonus crowd rewarding themselves with a $150K holiday present. We don't know yet how these programs worked out, but there are a couple of hints from reading the tea leaves:
- Sales of delivery-only miles inventory cars was very successful in Q4, in all geographies, with a multi-fold increase over prior quarters, including Q3
- Sales of discounted AP1 inventory cars was successful in the US (only 10 left in ev-cpo) but not so much in Europe, with around 300 still available in ev-cpo
I assume that Tesla has reviewed the results of these Q4 programs and factored them into its Q1 production plan. We can now crowd source info from the VIN watching, ev-cpo analyzing and delivery spreadsheet divining members here (including you and me) over the next 90 days and speculate on what that plan might be. I believe that whatever plan Tesla comes up with it will result in a sequential increase in deliveries from Q4 to Q1.
Tesla Q4 2016 Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla delivered approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4, of which 12,700 were Model S and 9,500 were Model X. When added to the rest of the year, total 2016 deliveries were approximately 76,230.Our Q4 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.
Tesla delivered approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4, of which 12,700 were Model S and 9,500 were Model X. When added to the rest of the year, total 2016 deliveries were approximately 76,230.Our Q4 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.
Tesla Q4 2016 Production and Deliveries
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 01/03/17 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) produced 24,882 vehicles in Q4, resulting in total 2016 production of 83,922 vehicles. This was an increase of 64% from 2015.
Tesla delivered approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4, of which 12,700 were Model S and 9,500 were Model X. When added to the rest of the year, total 2016 deliveries were approximately 76,230.Our Q4 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.
Because of short-term production challenges starting at the end of October and lasting through early December from the transition to new Autopilot hardware, Q4 vehicle production was weighted more heavily towards the end of the quarter than we had originally planned. We were ultimately able to recover and hit our production goal, but the delay in production resulted in challenges that impacted quarterly deliveries, including, among other things, cars missing shipping cutoffs for Europe and Asia. Although we tried to recover these deliveries and expedite others by the end of the quarter, time ran out before we could deliver all customer cars. In total, about 2,750 vehicles missed being counted as deliveries in Q4 either due to last-minute delays in transport or because the customer was unable to physically take delivery. Even where these customers had already fully paid for their vehicle, we still did not count these as deliveries in Q4.
In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 6,450 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2017.
Vehicle demand in Q4 was particularly strong. Q4 net orders for Model S and X, which were an all-time record for us, were 52% higher than Q4 2015 and 24% higher than our previous record quarter in Q3 2016.
Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
Source: Tesla Motors, Inc.
News Provided by Acquire Media
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 01/03/17 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) produced 24,882 vehicles in Q4, resulting in total 2016 production of 83,922 vehicles. This was an increase of 64% from 2015.
Tesla delivered approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4, of which 12,700 were Model S and 9,500 were Model X. When added to the rest of the year, total 2016 deliveries were approximately 76,230.Our Q4 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct.
Because of short-term production challenges starting at the end of October and lasting through early December from the transition to new Autopilot hardware, Q4 vehicle production was weighted more heavily towards the end of the quarter than we had originally planned. We were ultimately able to recover and hit our production goal, but the delay in production resulted in challenges that impacted quarterly deliveries, including, among other things, cars missing shipping cutoffs for Europe and Asia. Although we tried to recover these deliveries and expedite others by the end of the quarter, time ran out before we could deliver all customer cars. In total, about 2,750 vehicles missed being counted as deliveries in Q4 either due to last-minute delays in transport or because the customer was unable to physically take delivery. Even where these customers had already fully paid for their vehicle, we still did not count these as deliveries in Q4.
In addition to Q4 deliveries, about 6,450 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q1 2017.
Vehicle demand in Q4 was particularly strong. Q4 net orders for Model S and X, which were an all-time record for us, were 52% higher than Q4 2015 and 24% higher than our previous record quarter in Q3 2016.
Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
Source: Tesla Motors, Inc.
News Provided by Acquire Media
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