JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Actually we don't until Tesla and other OEM's have EV's sitting unsold on lots. We have a long way to go until that time.
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larmor
Active Member
I'm not so sure. Most medical professionals are conservative in thought process, and nothing to do with either party or peotus either. Many people i know well are also medical professionals, and just see no value in tesla, they are happy with an s-class, mb GL or lexus. They can be shown safety records, features, etc, but they won't buy in- no matter what you show them.
The real market are all the kids around us. I always get waves and squeals from kids walking by and from other cars. They are also the future buyers.
Should have seen one of the last places I worked. All big earners and all racist numnuts who had greats women and spent lunch screwing strippers.
racer26
Active Member
So we're either on track for record production, or a record VIN delta by your metric.
I was attempting to judge it based on production start dates landing within a quarter, and throwing out the few outliers on the ends.
Yep, the folks with extreme views (bias confirmation) just suck-up data to solidify their preconceived position - It requires a long-term sustained effort to sway them, (my father-in-law is one of them), just keep feeding him the facts, it will make a difference. BTW: It was Bush Cheney that signed into law the program that loaned TM the money to grow more quickly, this post provides the details: Tesla Repays Department of Energy Loan Nine Years Early
I reject this... it's a lack of critical thinking. For example, if someone says Tesla receives a lot of subsidies, the logical question is what is a lot? What is normal, or the control? If every company was "subsidized" by 25% based on, say, tax credits, and Tesla received 40%, then sure... we can say Tesla receives a lot of subsidies. But if Tesla received 20%, then no, they didn't... it's below average. And the commonly referenced LA Times article on government subsidies for Tesla/SpaceX/Solarcity is definitely a hit piece because it doesn't put the numbers into proper context. If a government contract is considered a subsidy, then what does it look like for Boeing or Lockheed Martin or ULA? Since Nissan and GM are volume EV leaders, how much in federal tax credits did they benefit? What is the economic benefit for each EV sold by Chevy or Nissan in terms of ZEV credits?
And further, these government programs were put in place to be utilized... CA CARB ZEV credit program was made well before Tesla was created and the point is that CA wanted ZEVs to be made available for sale. So Tesla should be held in distain for obliging?
This applies to everything... you hear some news, and the critical thinking cap needs to go on and see the credibility of the source and whether or not the source put the data into context and weighed against a control. It is remarkable to me the number of people I run across in science and engineering related fields that don't apply scientific experimental principles to basically everything. Even in sports, people talk about DVOA:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness
What constitutes average or normal, and is the reported information outside of such average or normal? Therefore, is it a systemic issue like no manufacturing tax credits should be offered to everyone, or is it specific that a company is sucking on the government teat to an excessive degree? What about 100% defense contractors that receive all their money from government contracts? Do we want no one to offer services to the government? If a launch provider is 100% dependent on the government, but is undercutting ULA by 50% for the same services, is the point of view that this is bad and such launch services shouldn't be offered?
I find this very frustrating.
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Yes, production lines up well with VIN assignment. This time around the question really is, was Tesla able to sell every car they produced by the end of the quarter?
European numbers so far seem to indicate they will be weaker by about 1K relative to Q3. As far as I can tell, China will have about 2K additional deliveries relative to Q3. So net we have 1K surplus. The very big question mark is US. InsideEv numbers look quite very bearish. They may or may not be reliable but unfortunately that is all we have.
Remember this?
Tesla hilariously finishes dead last in mystery shoppers study, salesmen found to act like ‘museum curators’
Suddenly the "museum curator" job is switched to an actual sales job this quarter. Were the sales people adequately trained to do the sale?
On the positive side, this is holiday season. Maybe there are enough wealthy people, that will buy Teslas as "presents" by shopping on the spot.
larmor
Active Member
Also, imho, to reach the med professional market is to provide the MX with a huge safety advantage. Still waiting for nhtsa report. MX was debuted in it presentation with safety slides first, not ev nor performance not space.
Yea, I do not consider this to be very precise metric, because several different approaches yielding different results can be used. My approach is based on assumption that date of issuing VIN number is correlated with the start of production, so it is logical to use these numbers when the comparison (delta) is made to the production within a quarter.
Ford to develop several Tesla killers over the next 5 years. At least I'm sure that's what the bears are thinking...
Ford Adding Electrified F-150, Mustang, Transit by 2020 in Major EV Push; Expanded U.S. Plant to Add 700 Jobs to Make EVs, Autonomous Cars | Ford Media Center
Ford Adding Electrified F-150, Mustang, Transit by 2020 in Major EV Push; Expanded U.S. Plant to Add 700 Jobs to Make EVs, Autonomous Cars | Ford Media Center
I do not think that InsideEV numbers can provide ANY guidance, bearish or bullish. They reflect delivery of the Q3 pipeline cars and sales of inventory/demo cars. It is absolutely clear that deliveries in December will dominate and decide the quater. So InsideEV data are marginal for any conclusion: classic case of "not enough information"
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Having just shopped for a Model X last month, one thing Tesla did this quarter was load up on inventory cars, both Gen 1 and Gen 2 Autopilot. The Gen 1s had sizable discounts, the Gen 2s none at all.
The thinking was with both uncertainty over the future of the tax credit in 2017 plus the impending end of free Supercharger access, demand would be high for cars that could be delivered before end of year.
When we were shopping mid December, Tesla had over 100 cars inventory stored just outside of Seattle ready for sale. They held a couple weekend "Inventory Events" where they held test drives and had lists of cars ready for immediate delivery. Within a week they were nearly all gone.
Multiply that times the number of major US metros and I think the numbers for Q4 will be just fine. We'll see soon enough.
The thinking was with both uncertainty over the future of the tax credit in 2017 plus the impending end of free Supercharger access, demand would be high for cars that could be delivered before end of year.
When we were shopping mid December, Tesla had over 100 cars inventory stored just outside of Seattle ready for sale. They held a couple weekend "Inventory Events" where they held test drives and had lists of cars ready for immediate delivery. Within a week they were nearly all gone.
Multiply that times the number of major US metros and I think the numbers for Q4 will be just fine. We'll see soon enough.
In our neighboring area of Oak Brook/Hindsale I know no other demographic buying more Teslas than physicians. Please re-check your gut feelings.
I think pretty low. Tesla has said they will release these numbers within three business days. The SP should tank if Tesla doesn't provide the numbers as promised.
Here in Miami, at the hospital parking garage , the reserved parking area for doctors , looks like a tesla
Car dealership. Tons of them.
Car dealership. Tons of them.
Kenriko
Former Vendor
I was excited about a EV F-150 and Mustang... then I read it's just Hybrids.. really? Yawn Move along.. same old, same old.
Kenriko
Former Vendor
I was hoping the positive numbers would come out today followed by the GF event tomorrow for a one/two punch to send the stock up over two days. There is only so much the stock can really jump in a single day and I think having both bits of news at the same time will water down the effect.
Thumper
Active Member
I have a friend with 3 5.0 Mustangs plus a daily driver. After informing him of all the benefits of Tesla S ownership, he sighed and said "yeah but it's not my dream". You can't really argue with that. Sadly he is locked into a hardware dream. He should have dreamed functionality not hardware.
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