MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Great post. Thanks!
Maybe next time you should put the old MS on the TN, and let it earn you a new one.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
There are three possible problems.
1) Economically viable mining in third world countries that lack the rule of law.
2) Economically viable mining in industrialized democracies where there is regulation up the wazoo.
3) There is no mineral to mine.
Cobalt's problem is the first two. Those problems can be resolved. The last one can not. Plus, batteries with cobalt will definitely be economic to recycle.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
IMO a true Tesla competitor is a sedan or CUV in the $35k-$150k price class that is competitive with the ICE vehicles in its price class, stocked and sold at every dealership or store of the brand,supported by a marketing campaign equivalent to other equivalent cars in the brand's portfolio, and will be made in quantities that meet demand. Not quantities that meet government mandates.
In a normal market sedans that start at ~$68k and CUVs that start at ~$88k are not volume leaders. This is an abnormal situation because of a lack of compelling vehicles in the mass market price section of the market. Vehicles in the price class of the eGolf and eUP! should be the market leaders.
That is the kind of thing I wrote in English class when I didn't read the book. What exactly did you clarify with that?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
What did you not understand about my original post?
Because I did not imply there were no problems with extracting enough Cobalt to ramp up production enough to transition the world to sustainable transportation.
Just that the physical material being there was not the problem.
3Victoria
Active Member
My understanding is that Tesla established sources for their raw materials. Also, if cobalt is a problem for Tesla (not likely), then it is a bigger problem for the other battery makers, since they use more of it.
What I think will happen is cobalt, which is already up 50% in a year, will prolly continue up. It is interesting that Tilson pics had all of the other non problematic materials and left out the most concerning. Avoid the temptation to hope that there is no risk.
3Victoria
Active Member
Huh? There is always risk. One estimates the risk relative to all the other risks. AFAIK, Tesla has established contracts for materials.
I should have said the first all-electric competitor. Tesla has ICE competitors, but they can never measure up to the benefits the electric driveline offers. (Some hybrids might come close on some areas, but they are terrible in other areas.)
The first all-electric competitor to Tesla should have an all electric range greater than 200 miles, room for a lot of luggage, seat at least five, have AWD (and preferably tow hitch, here in Norway), and have a high-end interior.
The currency changes haven't been kind. Teslas have gotten about 50% more expensive since the end of 2014 in Norway. (And Tesla didn't fully adjust pricing according to the exchange rate until the end of 2015.) There's nothing Tesla can do about it other than getting the European factory up and running as soon as possible. But I do expect sales in 2017 to exceed those of 2016, due to greater availability of the Model X.
Also, I would like to say that Tesla seling 4,000 cars per year in the Model S/X price range in Norway is borderline absurd. When Tesla started out, I had hopes for *maybe* 2,000 Model S per year, which is also extremely good (10% of the planned production for a little country like Norway!)
You can look at the top 20 most sold cars in 2016:
1. Volkswagen Golf 13,148
2. Mitsubishi Outlander 5,687
3. Toyota Rav4 4,955
4. Volkswagen Passat 4,813
5. Toyota Auris 4,419
6. Toyota Yaris 4,247
7. Nissan Leaf 4,162
8. BMW i3 3,953
9. Skoda Octavia 3,795
10. Volkswagen Tiguan 3,233
11. Audi A3 3,018
12. Mazda CX-5 2,655
13. Mazda CX-3 2,286
14. Mercedes-Benz B-class 2,271
15. Volvo XC60 2,259
16. Tesla Model S 2,051
17. Nissan Qashqai 2,021
18. Skoda Superb 2,012
19. Toyota Prius 1,985
20. BMW 2-series 1,883
On that list, the Model S is the most expensive car, by a *wide* margin, most cost around 1/3 as much. When Tesla sold 4,000 Model S per year in Norway, they were far beyond what any other car in the same price range has ever achieved. We might never see anything similar ever happen again. The Model 3 should do way better than the Model S ever did, but that's not strange, given it's price.
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How does that make it borderline absurd? There simply is no competition in the Norwegian luxury market segment around 100k as far as I understood it?
The Model S currently starts at 600k NOK, and tops out at around 1.35 million NOK. If you look at only the 1-1.35 million NOK range, you can buy cars like the Porsche Macan, Porsche Cayenne, Porsche Panamera, Porsche Cayman, Volvo XC90 T8, BMW 7-series, Mercedes GLS, Audi Q7, etc. The list goes on.
Things were much better back when a Model S cost 400-800k NOK. Back then, there weren't really any cars that could in any reasonable way be compared to the Model S. This price range is mostly occupied with cars like the Passat, Accord, Rav4, BMW 5-series, etc.
Gerardf
Active Member
The current count of MS/MX in Norway is a whopping 13.885 !! (12.326 + 1.559)
In a country with a population of 5 Million that is ludicrous in my book.
4k per year would a crazy high % of the market for 100k cars there and was not expected to be repeated every year. Actually I feel 2k / year is insane. A good part of the Norwegian market probably also preferred the -X, I would not be surprised to see 2017 sales going obove 3k in Norway for MS/MX
BTW: the counter for January 2017 is already at 188 (62 + 126).
For comparison : July-16 was 68 total and oct-16 was 124 for the full months.
Source : Tesla Registration Stats
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Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Good to see some of the presentation from Elon and JB. My first thought was we will never the leaders of the current ICE manufacturers giving a presentation in this level of detail on engines let alone batteries. This is Elon's first principles thinking and the understanding that the batteries are where the real value will be created in the supply chain for EV's and energy storage.
RationalOptimist
Member
Indeed. This is the kind of post that could persuade a bunch of shorts to shift. ...and a bunch of longs to double down. The recorded Musk/JB Q and A is incredibly convincing in terms of the vision to truly, truly disrupt traditional auto manufacturing by means of first principles, vertically integrated alien dreadnought design. I'd heard snippets from the Q/A, but when you hear the whole thing it's quite remarkable. (wish it was better recorded)
N5329K
Active Member
"Enthusiasts who love and adore a product will buy it again or another from the same company even if that product has a flaw or they've had a bad experience."
FIFY. Ferarri's business model is based on this truism.
Of course Tesla's made mistakes. It's a tribute to their engineering that they've made as few as they have. Most have been of the "teething" variety. Some have been self-inflicted. All have been met with a great deal of good will from buyers.
But good will is a perishable quality. Maintaining it is key to the success of the Model 3 and the success of the Model 3 is essential to the survival of the company, and the survival of the company is what moves the needle in the transition to electric automobiles. Tesla has done a pretty terrific job of dealing with problems for the relatively small number of vehicles it's sold, but it will face an entirely different challenge if, say, the door handles on every Model 3 need to be replaced.
That's why I really hope they rein in their natural technological exuberence a little, and keep the 3 as simple and as reliable and as repairable as possible.
We'll all know fairly shortly.
Robin
FIFY. Ferarri's business model is based on this truism.
Of course Tesla's made mistakes. It's a tribute to their engineering that they've made as few as they have. Most have been of the "teething" variety. Some have been self-inflicted. All have been met with a great deal of good will from buyers.
But good will is a perishable quality. Maintaining it is key to the success of the Model 3 and the success of the Model 3 is essential to the survival of the company, and the survival of the company is what moves the needle in the transition to electric automobiles. Tesla has done a pretty terrific job of dealing with problems for the relatively small number of vehicles it's sold, but it will face an entirely different challenge if, say, the door handles on every Model 3 need to be replaced.
That's why I really hope they rein in their natural technological exuberence a little, and keep the 3 as simple and as reliable and as repairable as possible.
We'll all know fairly shortly.
Robin
Gerardf
Active Member
I wonder what Mark B.S. thinks about this.
It was Tilson who publicly shared that he considered shorting TSLA (again) after seeing his presentation.
Valuewalk was actually the same website where Mark B.S. '"Tesla is a Zero" presentations was shared
Mark Spiegel - Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Is A Zero [Slides]
He has not Tweeted about TSLA for well over 9 hours while he already send NINE tweets that where non-TSLA !
Edit : three --> nine.
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