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No, it doesn't. Not at all.
Uber doesn't provide the cars. The driver provides the car. A large percentage of the money going to the drive is really *rental payment for the car*. It should be obvious to you that Tesla owners will not rent their cars out for substandard rates... to people who might leave cigarette burns in the interior, etc.
Well, if you go out far enough in the future, *the government will start actually charging truckers for the damage they do to the roads*, at which point the railroads will become much, much, much, much cheaper than trucking. There's a long-standing and major political issue here with the massive government subsidies to truckers. They're cross-subsidized by drivers through the gasoline tax and they're subsidized by general fund (income tax, sales tax, property tax) funding. This has been going on for decades but Congress is starting to realize that it's unsustainable.
Do you know *anything* about the transportation industry? I know a great deal about it.
I bought a few weekly lottos at $355 but waiting to buy more shares LEAPS at $332 (hopefully we don't get there)
I did add some Sept puts yesterday but they are hardly making an impact on my overall TSLA positions on a day like today.
I am not a good market direction predictor but for those who are the swings we have seen this week are things that make or lose people a ton of $.
Definitely NOT advice
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm applying the 80% gross margin to only Tesla's 25%. The "rental payment for the car" is the 75% the owner of the car is getting.
Nice one at buying at the lowest point of the day! How did you do that? Good to see that TSLA has been at 355 and above for some time.
No explanation other than 'luck'. With weeklies it is almost all luck IMO unless you posses some news that the market has not gotten wind of yet.
I see you are new to posting here. Welcome.
I like how you view weeklies as lottos! I have always avoided weeklies but I guess that mentally helps.
Thanks for welcoming and I really appreciate everyone's contribution here. It's been fun reading the posts.
P.S. I really don't get Elon's tweets about floors... I do like his randomness though. I still think a ceiling is simply a floor from "above".
bdy0627
Active Member
You wouldn't have known it by the market but there was a bullish note out today:
Tesla has ‘near-monopolistic opportunity’ in auto industry due to complacency on EVs from automakers, says report
Tesla has ‘near-monopolistic opportunity’ in auto industry due to complacency on EVs from automakers, says report
Elon Musk on Twitter said:
Elon Musk on Twitter said:
Obviously he is hinting that there is only one way to go now, and that is up
Waiting4M3
Active Member
But don't forget that the Silevo tech is based on the quantum-mechanical tunnel effect ...Obviously he is hinting that there is only one way to go now, and that is up
so, may still fall through and hit a wall. Figuratively speaking of course. Maybe goes through the roof. But that would hurt the tiles. Elon seems to be in good mood.
The least we can say is that there is no bad surprises concerning the M3 until now
Dynastar
Member
Obviously he is hinting that there is only one way to go now, and that is up
I think all those random tweets are "good mood" tweets, but it's really hard to tell this time.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
It was his birthday yesterday, looks like Amber wasn't around, so maybe Elon found other ways to celebrate
It was his birthday yesterday, looks like Amber wasn't around, so maybe Elon found other ways to celebrate
Yes
, I also know that an Elon being in good mood on Twitter doesn't mean the SP is going to jump and everything is alright.But I think, at least, no major unexpected issue arose.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
After further discussion with @neroden and others, I'd like to be more conservative on Tesla Network, even though I still believe the above scenario is the more likely outcome.
Therefore, the math now is:
Tesla Network: 35% owner participation x $2 per ride x 2 rides per hour x 10 hours x 365 days x 25% revenue share x 80% gross margin =
~$50 billion in annual gross profit just from Tesla Network by 2025. Tesla network now makes up one-third of my intrinsic value estimate. Number of daily rides ~380m in 4Q25.
Arguably, the decrease in owner participation from 50% to 35% and number of hours from 15 to 10 should increase the avg price per ride to something higher than $2 due to less competition among owners, but I'm keeping the longer term avg price per ride at $2 to be conservative.
Note that if the launch of Tesla Network (which requires wide release of level 4/5 autonomy) is delayed from my current expectation of 2Q18, my intrinsic value estimate of Tesla would not be affected by much, because the number of cars participating in the service only really starts ramping up in 2021 as additional Gigafactories start producing in meaningful quantities.
Note that Tesla's Supercharger v3 network will serve as a strong moat vs. uber/lyft and other competitors.
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