2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[32no]

Short interest 31,352,589 --> 31,584,047 on 4/13

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

So we have our answer, shorts have not received Elon's message about stormy weather, and if Q1 is as good as Elon has let on, they will run for the exits.

The story of the shorts is quite interesting over the last 6 months or so. Short interest bottomed out at 26,213,855 shares on August 31, 2016 at ~$210 and was rising for a couple months (some of the rise is likely due to SolarCity shorts continuing to short Tesla) before peaking on November 30th with 35,687,317 shares at ~$180 (this is the period that jesselivenomore is referring to as the period of "irrational depression" due to uncertainty about the Solarcity acquisition). Then, as Tesla rallied, bears were rational and exited their positions, realizing that they had their time in the green during the extended downtrend in Tesla. So short interest went down to 31,012,918 shares on February 28, 2017 at ~$245. Since then, shorts seem to have held and even added to their positions as short interest has slightly swelled to 31,584,047 on April 15 while Elon warned of stormy weather and Tesla has blown past $300. Seems like a set-up for a light squeeze.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Compact Entry Level RWD/AWD Luxury Sedans.
Mercedes Class
BMW 3 Series
Cadillac ATS
Lexus IS

Compact Entry Level FWD/AWD Luxury Sedans
Audi A4 (tarted up Jetta)
Acura ILX (tarted up Civic)

Midsize Entry Level Luxury FWD/AWD Sedans

Lexus ES(tarted up Camry)
Acura TLX (tarted up Accord)

Midsize Luxury RWD/AWD Sedans.
BMW 5 Series
Mercedes E Class
Cadillac CTS
Lexus GS


Compact Luxury sedans totaled 516k in 2016 in the USA.
Midsize Luxury sedans totaled 308k in the 2016 in the USA.
Mainstream Midsize sedans totaled 2.1M in 2016 in the USA.

Total Auto Market in the USA was 17.5M in 2016 in the USA.

There are also Volvo S60, Infinity Q50/Q60, Jaguar XE, BMW 2 and 4 series, Audi A3/A5, Mini, maybe even Buick Verano

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Short interest 31,352,589 --> 31,584,047 on 4/13

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

The storm warnings have been issued, they've been told to seek cover (pun intended) but, based on Twitter activity and those stats, have largely ignored the warnings...

 

[RobStark]

There are also Volvo S60, Infinity Q50/Q60, Jaguar XE, BMW 2 and 4 series, Audi A3/A5, Mini, maybe even Buick Verano

That is why I gave a few examples then the total market sales.

Not meant to be exhaustive list.

 

[AudubonB]

THIS is one big reason I always take Pearlie May to a Lexus dealership for her annual Safety Inspection. Exposure. Really high-quality conversations with Car People. Lots of "light bulbs over their head" moments, every time...

Did you just tell us that Pearlie May needs a Safety Inspection every single Saturday morning?

 

[Curt Renz]

The storm warnings have been issued, they've been told to seek cover (pun intended) but, based on Twitter activity and those stats, have largely ignored the warnings...

View attachment 224430

Over four years ago Elon warned of a “Tsunami of Hurt” coming to short sellers. Two and a half years ago he conceded to CNBC and Bloomberg reporters that the TSLA share price was at that time too high. More recently he has warned of “Stormy Weather in Shortville”. You’d think the shorts would consider that Elon might possibly know something. Apparently the most stubborn of them still do not.

 

[Crowded Mind]

On Friday, Musk is doing a TED talk in Vancouver, likely most relevant to Neuralink. The session he is a part of is "Session 11: The Future Us".

TED2017: The future you

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Elon put it in writing, that he expects TSLA's price to reach $3000 in 5 to 10 years. Shorts think Elon is just making empty promise to hoax the employees.

We the long term holders know it's the contrary. He understands those employees may come to him in 10 years and ask where is the 10 fold? Elon would not make that prediction if he doesn't have the confidence and reasons.

Just a quibble. Elon never said that he expected the SP to reach $3000, only that a 10,000 euro investment would increase to 100,000 euro. Stock splits, dividends, and all-stock-purchases (ala SCTY) would make Elon's statement true while making yours false.

 

[AudubonB]

Audie-on-the-road on Friday. I'd better be able to listen to that TED Talk!

 

[Crowded Mind]

Audie-on-the-road on Friday. I'd better be able to listen to that TED Talk!

From what I can gather, it may be some time before we see it surface, sadly. Tickets to this thing are apparently $8,500.

 

[MitchJi]

EGEB: Wind turbine ‘blade’ technician, Trump’s credibility hurting Department of Energy, 140GWh of renewables curtailed, more

Electrek Green Energy Brief
California oversupply volumes grow, ISO curtails more renewables – Rothleder said the ISO curtailed about 60,000 MWh in February and about 80,000 MWh in March – 140,000MWh at about $0.029/kWh (rough average wholesale California electricity rate) equals about $4 million in lost revenue to these generators. If the electricity curtailing was equal daily – it’s not – that’d be 2,300MWh/day to buy, hold and resell at the peak of the duck curve. Anyone taking bets on the duck curve beginning to decline by 2020?

How a Cold Day in Texas Exposed the Value of Grid Flexibility – Around 8 a.m. prices jumped to nearly $5,000 per megawatt-hour, more than 100 times the average price of electricity. In 2014, a handful of these bellwether events provided about 20 percent to 25 percent of net revenues for one typical Texas combined-cycle plant. Two things here that interest me – $5,000/MWh (equals $5/kWh just to scare you) and the second item – that these days equal 20-25% of revenue and all of profit. These are the systems that some major CEOs think won’t be built again in the USA after 2020 because of batteries.

Trump’s ‘credibility problem’ threatens to undermine DOE baseload power review
These credibility problems have to do with outspoken support for certain groups based upon a political logic, and not a scientific are market logic. Our energy infrastructure is about math – not whims alternative facts.

 

[DurandalAI]

Just a quibble. Elon never said that he expected the SP to reach $3000, only that a 10,000 euro investment would increase to 100,000 euro. Stock splits, dividends, and all-stock-purchases (ala SCTY) would make Elon's statement true while making yours false.

10x increase in value. What was the range he gave for it hitting that? (If any.) Just curious, not being nit-picky.

 

[geneclean55]

TESLA

Check this out (before it gets taken down maybe).
He says he is there for 7.5 weeks to install/test the kuka robots for the M3 line. 467 of them....

So M3 line ready to manufacture on June 16?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

10x increase in value. What was the range he gave for it hitting that? (If any.) Just curious, not being nit-picky.

5-10 years. Should be do-able, after all, although the SP increased 10x in value (since Nov 9' 2012), the market cap increased 14.3x in value in that same time frame.

 

[jhm]

Also in that vein, every time I'm in "pole position" at a red light, I take the opportunity to educate other drivers on the benefits of electric

This is the sacred duty of all Tesla drivers: rightly apply the accelerator of knowledge.

 

[SPadival]

Check this out (before it gets taken down maybe).
He says he is there for 7 weeks to install/test the kaka robots for the M3 line. 467 of them....

Downloaded all the photos.. on my work laptop!! I wouldn't visit that site again from work. Why are the robots mounted so high ?? (Page 2 pic). Alien Dreadnaught 0.5 ?

 

[geneclean55]

Downloaded all the photos.. on my work laptop!! I wouldn't visit that site again from work. Why are the robots mounted so high ?? (Page 2 pic). Alien Dreadnaught 0.5 ?

Good question.
Regarding line assembly, I assume the robots are one of the last things to be fitted into the line? Looks like you can see some of them in place on the actual line in one of the photos.

 

[tslagreen]

In response to David Einhorn's - he of the Greenlight Capital 1.3% hedge fund return in the first qtr, - snarky comment that "the market has regained enthusiasm for profitless companies (i.e. Tesla) that aren’t at risk of paying taxes," why would anyone listen to this boob?
I get that if you look at companies, or anything for that matter, in a vacuum, that that logic would make sense. Why invest in a company that isn't profitable? Duh? Conversely, why would you invest in a company, say GM as he has, that has slow, minimal growth? He also invests in gold, which is fine (I have for a short time in the past), but gold traders, if I can stereotype (see douche Peter Schiff), in my view tend to be a conservative, risk-averse, build the bunker type of mentality that would consider driving a Tesla akin to driving a Vespa through the streets of Dallas. I get that many Tesla investors, such as myself, sometimes overemphasize the Tesla product while downplaying the stock flaws, but many of us have seen and lived the Tesla story for several years, both in the financial product and the car, and have seen first hand how the convergence of the idea and reality has reaped sweet rewards.

 

[Navin]

From what I can gather, it may be some time before we see it surface, sadly. Tickets to this thing are apparently $8,500.

There will be replays of the ted talk including elon's interview replayed this Sunday at theatres nationwide. Check the Ted talk website and/ your local theatre. I'm seeing it Sunday at 3pm in Lincolnshire, IL IMAX if anyone wants to get together and do a toga tesla party around the theatre

 

[DurandalAI]

Good question.
Regarding line assembly, I assume the robots are one of the last things to be fitted into the line? Looks like you can see some of them in place on the actual line in one of the photos.

Hopefully this guy didn't violate any NDAs with his photos. And if so, hopefully they don't fire him until he's done!