2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Buddyroe]

All of you clicking the "Disagree" icon to my post, please tell me how I'm wrong. Please tell me HOW in the he!! the X is even close to a success. All over this website, there are posts riddled with people who have gotten their X replaced due to lemon laws. Hardly an owner out there has an X that hasn't been in for warranty work. And 90% of those repairs? FWDs!

So please, stop hiding behind a disagree button and tell me WHY you disagree. Be a man.

 

[TrendTrader007]

What jumps out at me from the 4th quarter report is the piss-poor sales of the Model X. How can a full-size luxury sedan, which is a car class whose sales as a whole have been on a massive downward spiral, outsell a luxury SUV, which is in a class of cars whose sales are shooting to the stars.

Just a TERRIBLE mistake by Musk and everyone gives him a pass. Take those FWDs away and the car comes out a year sooner, costs a billion dollars less to design, and sells twice as many, at twice the profitability.

I'm the biggest Tesla and Elon fan there is, but he needs to be held responsible for that massive blunder called the "X". And more importantly, he needs to fix it so Tesla can actually start taking advantage of the SUV market. The S was and is a grand slam. The X, no matter what any current owners says, is a MASSIVE failure and is detriment to the future of Tesla.

Come on Elon - FIX IT!!

I'm sure you can do it better than Elon
Please give it a try!

 

[TrendTrader007]

All of you clicking the "Disagree" icon to my post, please tell me how I'm wrong. Please tell me HOW in the he!! the X is even close to a success. All over this website, there are posts riddled with people who have gotten their X replaced due to lemon laws. Hardly an owner out there has an X that hasn't been in for warranty work. And 90% of those repairs? FWDs!

So please, stop hiding behind a disagree button and tell me WHY you disagree. Be a man.

Sorry! I choose not to be a man

 

[Buddyroe]

I'm sure you can do it better than Elon
Please give it a try!

So, because I most likely CAN'T do it better than Elon, we should just allow him to continue to manufacture a car that is crushing the company?

Total stupidity. SMH.

 

[KLC13]

All of you clicking the "Disagree" icon to my post, please tell me how I'm wrong. Please tell me HOW in the he!! the X is even close to a success. All over this website, there are posts riddled with people who have gotten their X replaced due to lemon laws. Hardly an owner out there has an X that hasn't been in for warranty work. And 90% of those repairs? FWDs!

So please, stop hiding behind a disagree button and tell me WHY you disagree. Be a man.

Please dont respond to this. Post your question in the other thread and you shall see a lot more people offering their explanation.

 

[Buddyroe]

Sorry! I choose not to be a man

I stand corrected.

As a society, we REALLY need to develop some way of saying, "stand up for what you believe" without having to throw out the "man" word. The "man" word in this case, I was trying to say, "a strong person" - not a gender.

My apologies.

 

[Papafox]

All of you clicking the "Disagree" icon to my post, please tell me how I'm wrong. Please tell me HOW in the he!! the X is even close to a success. All over this website, there are posts riddled with people who have gotten their X replaced due to lemon laws. Hardly an owner out there has an X that hasn't been in for warranty work. And 90% of those repairs? FWDs!

So please, stop hiding behind a disagree button and tell me WHY you disagree. Be a man.

Buddyroe, I didn't disagree but I'll state what lots of TMC members are thinking. Tesla was production constrained in Q4, and with the autopilot change affecting numbers early in the quarter, lots of vehicles were not delivered. There's no problem with demand, it is production and delivery that kept the 4Q numbers from being better. Why so many more S than X? One opinion that has been common on these pages is that Model S has a better margin and can be made quicker than X, and so Tesla favored S over X during Q4 to achieve the best financial performance.

To bring this post within the umbrella of market action, let me guess that if we see a dip on open we see it bottom out 20 minutes later.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What jumps out at me from the 4th quarter report is the piss-poor sales of the Model X. How can a full-size luxury sedan, which is a car class whose sales as a whole have been on a massive downward spiral, outsell a luxury SUV, which is in a class of cars whose sales are shooting to the stars.

Looking at Tesla's Q4 '16 press release from Jan. 3, 2017, Tesla's delivered 12,700 Model S and 9,500 Model X. I'd hardly call that a poor showing. Also, the 5-seat version with more flexible fold down configuration had just started shipping.

I think I know why the Model S continues to sell even as large sedans as a segment are in decline. Model S is really a HATCHBACK. It has a huge storage area opening and cargo area. When the rear seats are folded down, the S can swallow bikes, flat screen TVs, and IKEA furniture boxes. The frunk is bonus space. A large sedan with trunk is not nearly as useful.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I stand corrected.

As a society, we REALLY need to develop some way of saying, "stand up for what you believe" without having to throw out the "man" word. The "man" word in this case, I was trying to say, "a strong person" - not a gender.

My apologies.

Lighten up dude! I was just Kidding with you
You're alright
If you believe in Tesla as you obviously do cut Elon some slack
Just how many dudes that you know are sending humanity to Mars and running one of the best growth companies on earth
I couldn't care less about MX sales
All I know is that if I do nothing else in my life but just bet on all of Elon's ventures I'll do extremely well
So second guessing the biggest tech visionary of our time is not the best use of anyone's time
I sincerely am not aiming this quote at you but just saying:
The biggest fool can ask more questions than the wisest man can answer
Bottomline: pessimists sulk
Optimists laugh their way to the bank
Enough said

 

[JRP3]

At this stage, people are interested in the interiors and details of Model 3. You seem to be answering about spy shots, that we weren't talking about.

Right, because each Tesla employee with a 3 is going to be instructed to attack anyone approaching them in public with a camera Seriously, this is the best you can come up with?

 

[JRP3]

FIX THE X!!!

Fix what? The development costs and delays are all in the past. Now the X is simply one of the most compelling SUV's on the planet, you want them to incur more costs in re-development and more delays? Makes no sense.

 

[Krugerrand]

Does this include S,X and 3? Then how much is it per week for Model 3 part? Seems like 2.5k-3k a week. So, there isn't a way to reach 50k M3 this year, even in this very optimistic scenario.

Did you listen to the ER? It was quite clear the 5k/wk was Model 3 ONLY.

 

[30seconds]

Tesla needed the X to be a money maker. SUVs are where the money is right now (and maybe for a LONG time). Show some flash somewhere else. Every other car company is making MASSIVE profits on SUVs right now and Tesla is sucking hind tit.

We all know the M3 won't be a massive money maker. The high-end luxury cars were suppose to make the money and carry this company. Unfortunately, the X has been a drain. Spin it how you want, but that makes you no different than the morons on TV saying Tesla loses money on every car sold because they have a net loss.

Until we ALL (including Elon) accept that the X was, and is, a massive failure, Tesla will be a company at risk.

I know several families, including my own, who are in the market for a luxury SUV, but would never consider the X due to its complexity and continued need for repairs.

You can make yourself feel better by calling the X an advertising car for Tesla, but the truth it, no car company is making money on mid-size sedans, and neither will Tesla in the long run.

FIX THE X!!!

While I agree that the FWD are holding back X sales, it is hardly a failure as overall S+X growth and revenue is higher than a S only scenario. Since the X is a cash flow positive investment, and Tesla could not make the Model 3 until the GF reduced battery costs, the X has had a positive impact on the comapny's overall position prior to Model 3 launch.

Tl;dr - S+X > S alone even is X is not optimal

 

[geneclean55]

I am all for a bit of banter or cogent bear arguments.

For example, Wheeler leaving seems unfortunate as he seems competent and yet hasn't been there for too long. So whats up with that?

But bear arguments such as the thousands of invisible model 3 employee cars driving around borders on the embarrassing.

 

[Ulmo]

Good point. I'm thinking that they have over 500,000 deposits for the 3. No way do they still have $100mil in deposits and payments for S and X vehicles that haven't been delivered yet.

My dashboard shows deposits for PowerWall, too.

So, deposits don't count the $3,000 for Full Self Driving? Those would be under a category like "undelivered", right?

 

[TrendTrader007]

So, because I most likely CAN'T do it better than Elon, we should just allow him to continue to manufacture a car that is crushing the company?

Total stupidity. SMH.

Yes

 

[JRP3]

So please, stop hiding behind a disagree button and tell me WHY you disagree. Be a man.

I already did, in the other thread, where you posted the exact same question....

 

[KLC13]

What jumps out at me from the 4th quarter report is the piss-poor sales of the Model X. How can a full-size luxury sedan, which is a car class whose sales as a whole have been on a massive downward spiral, outsell a luxury SUV, which is in a class of cars whose sales are shooting to the stars.

Just a TERRIBLE mistake by Musk and everyone gives him a pass. Take those FWDs away and the car comes out a year sooner, costs a billion dollars less to design, and sells twice as many, at twice the profitability.

I'm the biggest Tesla and Elon fan there is, but he needs to be held responsible for that massive blunder called the "X". And more importantly, he needs to fix it so Tesla can actually start taking advantage of the SUV market. The S was and is a grand slam. The X, no matter what any current owners says, is a MASSIVE failure and is detriment to the future of Tesla.

Come on Elon - FIX IT!!

I disagree with your blame on Musk. Personally, I think the styling is off on the Model X. I fell in love with the Model S the moment I saw it, but not so much with the X. I know styling is a personal choice but a lot of the people I spoke to did share similar viewpoints...

Now this is where I think the falcon wings saved the X. Thankfully Elon insisted on having those dual hinged doors. The car almost transforms and looks MUCH better with those doors open. It is like a moving advertisement for Tesla and leaves people in awe.

I agree those doors lead to a year long delay and quality problems, however without Elon's insistence on those doors, the Model X may be a much tougher sell.

 

[jhm]

Happy they somewhat lowballed guidance and did it just for 1H17.

Lowball indeed. This is at the same level as 2H16. Bears will mock Tesla for being demand constrained.

 

[JRP3]

While I agree that the FWD are holding back X sales,

What leads you to this conclusion? I'm sure some people are turned off by them, but I'd also bet an even higher number of people are turned on by them. I'd think most people looking to spend Model X kind of money on a vehicle appreciate a vehicle which stands out from the crowd.