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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Though it helps to know the rules of the game thoroughly.

Trump's been consistent so far. American jobs first. American industries first. Obviously, being an economist, I don't see things in such black and white terms but I'm just telling you my understanding of the game.

Tesla seems to be a fit.

Tesla = American jobs
Tesla = American manufacturing
Musk on Trump's Team = Lobbyist for Tesla

You can't hate Trump without hate spilling over to Tesla. Like it or not, that is how it is.
 
Trump's been consistent so far. American jobs first. American industries first. Obviously, being an economist, I don't see things in such black and white terms but I'm just telling you my understanding of the game.

Tesla seems to be a fit.

Tesla = American jobs
Tesla = American manufacturing
Musk on Trump's Team = Lobbyist for Tesla

You can't hate Trump without hate spilling over to Tesla. Like it or not, that is how it is.
I'm struggling to understand the general opinion... are Tesla investors now supporting T?
 
As I see it, there is a chance the auto manufacturers will want to slow some things down, simply to wait for Trump to pass on through like some stone in our gut. :)

And how about the anti-trade Bernie wing of the Democratic party congratulating Trump on pulling the USA out of the TPP and trade deals that "support multinational CEOs not American workers"?

Putting Humpty Dumpty back together again will prove very difficult.

TPP is dead. TTIP is dying. Not only Trump but some regional parliament in Belgium retains the power to kill it.

NAFTA is on life support.

Post Trump will Mexico and Canada want NAFTA 2.0?

Will they trust us again and reorient their economies yet again?

Can a post Trump free trade presidential candidate win the White House and get trade deals through Congress? Not a sure thing.
 
The two areas I can see Elon working the Trump angle are deregulation - related to solar permitting, and energy storage, related to grid modernization, energy independence and infrastructure.

If Trump "deregulated" the permitting of solar (made a single, nationally accepted permit, like Germany) and cut soft costs to those similar to Germany's, then Elon has outmaneuvered coal and eventually natural gas as solar + storage - soft costs wins on cost in most places now and in many other places sooner rather than later (see reports by state of solar grid parity by UBS and attached image).
IMG_0330.GIF




You heard a preview of the argument today when Trump discussed all his "friends" that have wanted to build things in the US, only to be denied based on rampant regulations. The growth of Solar jobs, which has doubled in the past 5 years and now surpasses coal and oil and gas exploration (Clean-Energy Jobs Surpass Oil Drilling for First Time in U.S.) is ripe for the Trump story of how deregulation caused the explosion of good paying, American jobs. He will announce the regulation change at his advisor Elon's U.S. Solar factory in his home state of New York.

The Storage angle also works with the infrastructure and grid modernization piece of the Trump infrastructure play he rolled out in broad strokes today. With 11% of Texas power coming from wind and increasing renewable production in the old "rust belt" he will Trumpet a US made, energy independent, modernized grid for all the new manufacturing coming back and to the US. It will allow Trump to keep claiming that he is a Huge Environmentalist, just like he's a huge feminist.

If these changes/investments happen, Elon and Tesla win the long game. I think Elon already believes he's going to win on the electrification of transportation (see Bloomberg video on Peak oil in 2022). He's now going for the energy jugular.

(To out the image in perspective, this is an article from 2015 stating installed costs in Germany in 2013 were about $2/W installed. Anyone know what they are now, with module prices crashing? Solar twice as expensive in US as in Germany)
 
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Here is what I think is going on with the Trump/Musk relationship:

Trump is a businessman and he sees the country as a business. He wants to remove fossil fuel regulations because he sees them as a competitive disadvantage. I also thinks he understands that renewables are the energy of the future, and America needs to position itself now or be at a competitive disadvantage.

I think Trump is coming up with a massive alternative energy based infrastructure program with Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and others. The plan will be an environmental win for the left, a business win for the right, and a jobs win for everyone. At his core I think Donald Trump has a massive ego and he really wants everyone to like him (which is why he cares so much about things like turnout to the inauguration). This plan is what he needs to change the narrative on him.
 
...Tesla investors now supporting T?

I understand that Tesla is a business.

Trump is pro-business.

Thus, it is logical that investors would support Trump.

The problem is Trump is unpredictable with his values and words are in question.

Would you want to do a business with someone who proudly use the law to hurt people by filing bankruptcies 6 times.

Would you want to do a business with someone who turns the words around so easily: One tweet described CIA as Nazi (and often keep the quotation marks for the word "intelligence", another minute he says the press is very dishonest in reporting him as having a feud with CIA...

Would you want to be associated with someone who picks a fight with almost everybody, from the Pope, to judges, Meryl Streep and I mean almost EVERYONE except for one, Putin?

Right now, Trump is winning and there is no question about it.

However, the team is very confusing.

The risk of impeachment is high.

And there goes the credibility and business for those who are associated with him.
 
The two areas I can see Elon working the Trump angle are deregulation - related to solar permitting, and energy storage, related to grid modernization, energy independence and infrastructure.

If Trump "deregulated" the permitting of solar (made a single, nationally accepted permit, like Germany) and cut soft costs to those similar to Germany's, then Elon has outmaneuvered coal and eventually natural gas as solar + storage - soft costs wins on cost in most places now and in many other places sooner rather than later (see reports by state of solar grid parity by UBS and attached image). View attachment 211951



You heard a preview of the argument today when Trump discussed all his "friends" that have wanted to build things in the US, only to be denied based on rampant regulations. The growth of Solar jobs, which has doubled in the past 5 years and now surpasses coal and oil and gas exploration (Clean-Energy Jobs Surpass Oil Drilling for First Time in U.S.) is ripe for the Trump story of how deregulation caused the explosion of good paying, American jobs. He will announce the regulation change at his advisor Elon's U.S. Solar factory in his home state of New York.

The Storage angle also works with the infrastructure and grid modernization piece of the Trump infrastructure play he rolled out in broad strokes today. With 11% of Texas power coming from wind and increasing renewable production in the old "rust belt" he will Trumpet a US made, energy independent, modernized grid for all the new manufacturing coming back and to the US. It will allow Trump to keep claiming that he is a Huge Environmentalist, just like he's a huge feminist.

If these changes/investments happen, Elon and Tesla win the long game. I think Elon already believes he's going to win on the electrification of transportation (see Bloomberg video on Peak oil in 2022). He's now going for the energy jugular.
jesus christ... please save us... you guys are seriously leaning towards Trump positives for Tesla...

I sincerely held a lot of respect for the Tesla investor community based on the solid ideology that (what I considered wild) was based on morals... and now you guys are looking for Trump intricacies that might boost the SP?

please tell me I am misreading this?... are you guys seriously willing to sell out in such a grotesque way?... that would really be disheartening for me.
 
I think we need to remember that SpaceX depends on a large amount of NASA contracts. Musk's long term goal of colonizing Mars may only be achievable in the timeframe he aspires to meet by significant amounts of funding from the U.S.A. If nothing else, he has to have a seat at the table with the Trump administration for the SpaceX side of things.
 
I only have alternative support for the alternative president. If Musk can squeeze some lemonade out of the lemon, I'm all for that.
there's a term for this... it's called "selling out".

""Selling out" is a common idiomatic pejorative expression for the compromising of a person's integrity, morality, authenticity, or principles in exchange for personal gain, such as money."

Selling out - Wikipedia
 
there's a term for this... it's called "selling out".

""Selling out" is a common idiomatic pejorative expression for the compromising of a person's integrity, morality, authenticity, or principles in exchange for personal gain, such as money."

Selling out - Wikipedia

If he needs to support the country his business is in, then I think it's worthwhile. Also, the stakes for what the company is trying to solve is far too important.
 
If he needs to support the country his business is in, then I think it's worthwhile. Also, the stakes for what the company is trying to solve is far too important.
this board and others have spent nearly a decade eloquently describing the importance of business for the betterment of humanity... and now your like &*## it... let's jump on the Trump wagon?
 
Trump's been consistent so far.

We're not a week in, FWIW. Musk and Thiel have decided to deal with Trump by engaging with him. They're both powerful in their own right, and apparently believe they can influence him, and perhaps they can. In any case, the chairman of SpaceX and the CEO of Tesla Motors can't ignore Trump.
 
Knowing Trumps position on EPA and deregulation at the expense of environment, there cannot be positive impact for renewables. I would love to understand what his take is on federal subsidies on solar and California waiver. $200M+ a year adds up with the bottom line for tesla just from ZEV.

Too many burning questions before this feels like a win.
 
I'm struggling to understand the general opinion... are Tesla investors now supporting T?

The biggest Tesla investor of all is on Trump's team. Can we PLEASE not use such broad polarizing terms like "support". We don't have to buy into *everything* Trump says or does. As individuals we have to determine what makes sense.

If you are a Tesla investor, Trump is doing amazing things for you. If you feel strong enough about him being the next Adolf Hitler, the most moral choice is to dump your shares and donate all "ill-gotten proceeds" to causes that oppose Trump.

Benefiting from Tesla's growth and future while trashing Trump with every fiber of your being is hypocrisy.


upload_2017-1-24_20-23-52.png
 
The biggest Tesla investor of all is on Trump's team. Can we PLEASE not use such broad polarizing terms like "support". We don't have to buy into *everything* Trump says or does. As individuals we have to determine what makes sense.

If you are a Tesla investor, Trump is doing amazing things for you. If you feel strong enough about him being the next Adolf Hitler, the most moral choice is to dump your shares and donate all "ill-gotten proceeds" to causes that oppose Trump.

Benefiting from Tesla's growth and future while trashing Trump with every fiber of your being is hypocrisy.


View attachment 211957
and then you post a snap of TSLA SP ramp... please refer to my sellout post.
 
We're not a week in, FWIW. Musk and Thiel have decided to deal with Trump by engaging with him. They're both powerful in their own right, and apparently believe they can influence him, and perhaps they can. In any case, the chairman of SpaceX and the CEO of Tesla Motors can't ignore Trump.

Many Americans do ignore Trump and it doesnt make sense.

upload_2017-1-24_20-30-52.png
 
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