2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[The Blue Owl]

Number of superchargers will increase 3x by end of 2018.

 

[dalalsid]

You have put numbers around these to realize the scale of cash generation I'm talking about... Words aren't enough.

1M in 2020 @ 50k ASP = 50B * 0.25 = 12.5B gross profit = 2 gigafactories give or take.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

1M in 2020 @ 50k ASP = 50B * 0.25 = 12.5B gross profit = 2 gigafactories give or take.

Gross profit is annual. Your cost estimate for a Gigafactory is 2x too much and over 5 years.

 

[dalalsid]

Gross profit is annual. Your cost estimate for a Gigafactory is 2x too much and over 5 years.

Yeah all numbers for the year 2020 and rounded. My number is not too big if you consider future factories as battery + car production. And as I said before, future timelines will contract. It won't be over 5 years. After 2020, they'll need to pump out a gigafactory+ a year.

 

[everman]

My audio dropped out right when he was going to clarify total Model 3 reservation numbers. What are they?!?

 

[Johan]

My audio dropped out right when he was going to clarify total Model 3 reservation numbers. What are they?!?

518k, 48x(?) after cancelations (net)

 

[Cattledog]

518k, 48x(?) after cancelations (net)

I think around 450 something..

 

[kingjamez]

I think around 450 something..

455k net IIRC with roughly 1800/day net since the reveal.

-Jim

 

[TradingInvest]

Model Y will be based on the Model 3 platform. This is great.

 

[JRP3]

S and X still using 18650, no surprise there.

 

[22522]

Good call.

 

[Alketi]

Model Y re-think is among the best news of the call. Tesla realizes the obvious:

1. Demand is off-the-chain for a desirable ~$35K EV
2. SUV/CUV cars have even more demand than sedans
3. No one else will even compete in this space (desirable/autopilot/performance/world-wide distribution) until 2020 at the earliest.

 

[sub]

I haven't noticed anyone shadow boxing with the trolls? Crickets?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Model Y will be based on the Model 3 platform. This is great.

This substantially de-risks the Model Y. Tesla can basically re-use powertrain, battery, electronics, seats, and some other interior components. Benefits are reliability of proven components and further economies of scale.

Major hardware development is the mostly limited to body (physically taller to accommodate hatch, maybe strengthen for towing) and suspension (to deal with extra weight and different distribution). I'm actually more excited about Model Y than Model 3.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Model Y re-think is among the best news of the call. Tesla realizes the obvious:

1. Demand is off-the-chain for a desirable ~$35K EV
2. SUV/CUV cars have even more demand than sedans
3. No one else will even compete in this space (desirable/autopilot/performance/world-wide distribution) until 2020 at the earliest.

Oh, the Germans are pissing their pants as we speak

 

[dmckinstry]

One single data point: now that the 3 is out, and we have one on order, I've still seen nothing to persuade me to alter my plan to buy another S or even an X as my next car once I trade in my existing 2013 S which yesterday hit 70,000 miles. So, I'm still loyal to S in terms of *my* personal daily driver.

Well, I'll be giving my 4 year+ Model S with nearly 90k miles to my younger daughter (after getting a fully loaded Model X, except for performance) and giving the M3 on order to my older daughter.

 

[Krugerrand]

I spoke to a person with more familiarity with both rich people and Dr. Seuss.

He explained that it was a social experiment where "You will never see a black Model 3."

Something about "A black model 3 will be like a non-star belly." "People who buy the black risk social exclusion. Nobody who can afford a Tesla will risk that exclusion. There will be no black model 3s."

I see about 5 or so black ones. I think he would assert that these are employees and not typical Tesla customers - they don't know the rules, yet.

He might be onto something.

I'll be ordering black when my turn comes. I have always had a problem with authority figures telling me what to do and am of the opinion that rules were made to be broken.

 

[bro1999]

Any mention of ZEV credit transaction earnings?

 

[RobStark]

So what are the chances Model Y comes with falcon wing doors?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Any mention of ZEV credit transaction earnings?

$100M per the shareholder's letter.