2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[vgrinshpun]

What blows my mind is, how deeply the notion of "big and heavy" is rooted in my mined when talking about current Teslas vs the competition. That was usually the only point i concede in arguments due to the simplified truth, that for an acceptable range you need a fairly big and heavy battery pack.

However this chart clearly shows, that in size, the 3 is right there with the competition: it's as long and high as the C class and just 1.5 inches wider. More importantly, it's just 4-5% heavier than the German duo. Tesla has come such a long way!

This comparison is flawed. The proper comparison based on performance is between M3 and BMW 3 Series is to 330i. M3 is only 8 pounds heavier. As I posted before this is a profound achievement and proof how much ahead of competition Tesla is.

THE DEATH OF EV WEIGHT PENALTY IS UPON US!

Here are my thoughts on the subject:

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

 

[RobStark]

Audi plans $12 billion in cost cuts to fund EV push, report says

 

[vgrinshpun]

Audi plans $12 billion in cost cuts to fund EV push, report says

Q.E.D:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2222104/

 

[geneclean55]

The bulk of cost-cutting to maintain margins while ramping EVs at Audi will come from slashing R&D.
Isn't R&D what they need to catch up with Tesla?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Now that the dust has settled a bit. My take (investment point of view only, customer pov is different)

I LIKE

* Tesla sticks to schedule on M3 first deliveries July target
* Pricing mostly right : high enough at first for getting to positive margins quickly, low enough to keep demand up later
* Refrained from adding technological surprises that may complicate production and delivery
* Positive press reception
* Standard model needs a smaller battery than estimated

I DISLIKE

* Slower roll out of premium models, pressuring gross margins 2018 Q1 and Q2
* Controlled delivery to selected customers on NDA basis signals low confidence
* No progress on EAP or FSD erodes lead on assisted driving tech
* Late international roll out does not put screws on European manufacturers

I am currently out of TSLA : I anticipate the chance of a bump due to this reveal to be about equal to chance for a decline due to Q2 shareholder results (which may be bad). I will be more aggressive once again as Semi reveal approaches. That is going to be more sizzle and less steak which usually attracts more stock buyers for TSLA than high steak, no sizzle events like the M3 reveal. Good luck to you all!

I agree with your list of likes, but some disagreement on couple of your dislikes:

• I'm now more positive on near-term gross margins as ASP will likely be significantly higher than initial estimates. This should slightly improve usually negative or abysmal near-term gross margins during initial production.
• Lack of announcement on EAP/FSD doesn't mean Tesla isn't progressing. Lack of announcement is in-line with the "anti-sell" theme, so I should've seen that coming (or not coming, I guess, in this case).

I think 2Q17 results may already be baked in so any short-term fall may be too ephemeral to forego potential upside even in the near term.

 

[myusername]

Majority of Americans will end up using all-electric fully autonomous ridesharing services in the longer term.

Similar to the 60:40 ratio among homeowners and renters, I expect some people to own cars in the future and rent it out to people who don't own cars.

I expect the ratio in automotive to be tilted more towards renters than in housing, because people don't feel the same level of emotional attachment to their cars they they do to their homes.

when?... as of somewhat recently the idea was that it'd be the M3 providing such services... haven't heard that noise in a while, but why in the world would anyone think it's a good idea to provide this service through retail vehicles that cost $50k? why wouldn't a company just come along and create a fleet of flying toasters and charge 1/2 for the service?

answer: they will if this FSD crap is possible. the Tesla Network through retail vehicles is a joke.

 

[RobStark]

The bulk of cost-cutting to maintain margins while ramping EVs at Audi will come from slashing R&D.
Isn't R&D what they need to catch up with Tesla?

IF they are increasing BEV R&D while slashing overall R&D what does that tell you?

They are killing ICE and transmission R&D.

 

[myusername]

I haven't been reading this forum for a while. My assumption is that we will experience:

• Massive FUD on a scale we've never seen before. We're already seen many FUDsters setting up shop in every crevice over the last few days. For instance, every thread on TMC has one designated FUDster. That will go up times one million as soon as the bell on the NYSE dongs. And it will end at 1PM trading day. It's all FUD FUD FUD.
• Sell The News! Big time.
• Bears Bears Bears. They will claw at EVERYTHING, and they'll make up stuff and claw at it. Fake news fake news fake news like never and always before.
• The Model 3 IS NOT A MERCEDES S65. The Model 3 IS NOT A MODEL X. The Model 3 IS NOT A ROCKET SHIP. Bears will bear this home over and over and over again. And we'll even believe them. Sometimes. Fools, etc.
• People will get in them. One here, another there. An investor will get in one. DaveT will get in one. In the dark. Then in the sunlight. Then he can take it on errands. THEN:

Drum roll...

The stock will go up a bit, because investors will know what's up. How much and when? How much and when. Yup. But the bears will be wrong! The bears will be very very wrong. And that already started. And it gets worse. But the bulls will listen to the real investors, and that is based on the consumers, who will look at this over-hyped rollie thingie, and then when they start coming out the factory over the next 9 months, all that goes to waste: it's just about the quality of the car. The sales numbers. The profit. Lots and lots of profits. But first, another decade of losses, instead, to build 6 new gigafactories. By then, the stock price will already be where it needs to be. It will be sometime in early 2018.

That's my prediction. And my predictions are usually wrong. Lots of roller coaster on the way to a somewhat better stock price next year. That's if things go OK.

This is a long term stock.

or... it's a bunch of retail shorts like myself that were equally excited as you for 3-day... just for other reasons.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think initial DRIVING reviews of the Model 3 are going to be the thing that affects the stock today.

And they are all positive. (Motor Trend, Car & Driver, Bloomberg, etc.)

Shorts will try hard out of the gate, but the reviews will prevail.

 

[elasalle]

Small note.
Pleasantly surprised to know that there were 50 Prod vehicles produced even though just 30 were delivered. Small indicator, but definitely indicates that there were no unexpected issues for the first month of July.

 

[Lessmog]

Elon Musk should stop making that stupid sex joke about Tesla's car names

Don't they know, sex sells? If these types of nitpicking is the best writers can come up with, you know M3 is going to kill it.

Well, you see, M3 is a small metric nut. It means the Bolt is so tightly screwed.

 

[Todd Burch]

Look at them shorts, trying so hard, God Bless them.

 

[elasalle]

Look at them shorts, trying so hard, God Bless them.

SP is down, going forward please don't ask God to Bless the Shorts

God bless the Longs too

 

[Intl Professor]

You didn't ask a question.

Also, you left out "storage" although your meaning was clear. At first read I really panicked!

We have a different need and the shocking to me $9,000 option for the extended range vehicle scotched my hope for a $50,000 limit for an M3 with almost all the bells and whistles (ludicrous not needed). The longer range battery is not needed, especially as our daily use would be around town and we would likely not need the Tesla fast charger at home, just the connector.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

SP is down, going forward please don't ask God to Bless the Shorts

God bless the Longs too

God is currently busy with North Korea; will get to Tesla longs/shorts later.

 

[elasalle]

God is currently busy with North Korea; will get to Tesla longs/shorts later.

It's already on calendar and is called Earnings date

 

[MitchJi]

• Lack of announcement on EAP/FSD doesn't mean Tesla isn't progressing.
• 
  
• Lack of announcement is in-line with the "anti-sell" theme, so I should've seen that coming (or not coming, I guess, in this case).

Agree.

Disagree. EAP/FSD is on both the MS-MX and the M3. Anti-selling isn't necessary.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It's amazing that Model 3 is already best-in-class without any consideration for fuel/maintenance savings or tax credits, and it's only July 2017.

Imagine in the next three years when Tesla reduces battery cost another $50/kWh ($2,500 to $3,500) when Gigafactory 1 is at full scale, in-sources and optimizes production of the rest of its cars, implements alien dreadnaught innovations and increases factory output by an order of magnitude, significantly lowers shipping costs by opening up factories in other continents, convinces insurance companies to recognize Tesla cars' superior safety and lower their premiums, commercializes Jeff Dahn's innovations on battery life and further reduces maintenance and therefore warranty costs, and advances EAP, and most importantly, achieves FSD.

Simply amazing.

 

[AlMc]

It looks so great from the outside. Not sure I would want to be Elon

Elon Musk gets personal about his 'terrible lows' and 'unrelenting stress'

 

[Waiting4M3]

Small note.
Pleasantly surprised to know that there were 50 Prod vehicles produced even though just 30 were delivered. Small indicator, but definitely indicates that there were no unexpected issues for the first month of July.

I'm as bullish as anyone on the long term, but short term is just too unpredictable, anything can be spun anyway possible. For example, since they only delivered 30 out of the 50 cars built, shorts can spin it and say the other 20 cars may be held back because they need some rework, so the production line only has 60% yield now.