2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[MXWing]

Ok, I will remind you - $22 less than it was the day deliveries were announced - and that is going into the M3 launch - an event that was/is supposed to drive the SP up significantly (and it has). So, even the M3 launch can't get us back to where we were before the deliveries were announced. But, you and VA are right - the deliveries, and now the earnings, don't matter much.

I will only ask you this. If deliveries had been in line with expectations, do you still think we'd have seen the $60 drop? And where do you think the SP would be right now without the deliveries miss?

Multiple things lined up that sent the snowball rolling downhill.

* Tech rotation into financials, bio tech
* Goldman downgrade by 10 more dollars? LOL
* Apple / Google partnerships with Hertz / Avis for autonomous cars LOL
* Volvo going all EV. LOL
* Profit taking off very high percentage gains in very short time.
* Stop losses getting blown through.
* Chartists selling off on technicals.

* Shorts piling on to magnify all of the above.

There's probably some other things I missed but I feel deliveries were not as impactful compared to the factors above. If momentum was strong going into 2Q deliveries it would not have been a big deal.
Some factors I found laughable individually but stacked with momentum factors contributed to the massive selloff.

Since momentum was against us, the trend continued downward - pushing us into bear market territory.

 

[Waiting4M3]

- They're also off by a year with the Model 3.
- They quoted the Model 3 minimum range
- They quoted the NEDC range (estimates even) for the European models and the EPA range for Teslas

Let the hibernating bear dream itself back to sleep while 400K of waiting M3 customers march past its cave

 

[Bgarret]

UBS out with their thoughts yesterday. Yes, they have had a sell rating on TSLA.
It seems every ER is a battle and I have no idea if the ER had been factored into the current SP altogether.

UBS expects wider loss for Tesla; thinks Model S and X demand is slackening

I have added protective puts, Sept 15, 300s over the last 2 days on any blip over $345.

Not advice

I always find the "slackening demand" argument to be both non-persuasive and simplistic.

It envisions Elon, J.B. And the management team quivering in a corner, wringing their hands as the Model X and S sales ticker starts to slow...."it was 25,500 Elon, now it's 24,500...WHAT DO WE DO!"

They advertise. Until I see Tesla starting to pay for advertising, I am comfortable there is sufficient demand for Model S & X...and even when they start advertising, that's OK too. The Model S platform is, with solid redesign, in its 5th year. There will be slackening of demand. I'm still unsure of the demand ceiling for the Model X. The Model III will be here tomorrow. Colin may not be a bad guy, but he can only see what is right in front of him....no strategic vision.

 

[hobbes]

German minister of transportation bans new registrations and requires a recall of 22,000 Porsche Cayenne with a certain engine featuring a defeat device:

Abgas-Manipulation: Dobrindt verhängt Zulassungsverbot für Porsche-Modell

 

[TradingInvest]

...... Colin may not be a bad guy, but he can only see what is right in front of him....no strategic vision.

I agree Colin can't think right. In addition, I don't think Colin is innocent. In general, the analysts of investment banks are not working for the public. There are reasons why they say certain things at certain times. I'm confident UBS and GS want to see TSLA drop. They never say anything good about Tesla even if Tesla achieved something amazing. I can sense how much they hate Tesla and Elon. Why? That I don't know.

I still remember years ago UBS issued a report saying a stock was greatly undervalued, then they quickly dumped $5B of that stock. Afterwards the stock dropped 70% and never came back. Apparently they didn't really think it was undervalued.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Model 3: 0.237kWh/mile.

 

[hobbes]

Model 3: 0.237kWh/mile.

Translating to 316 mi/508 km of range for 75kWh battery!!!

 

[Hogfighter]

When Elon stated that Model 3 is 20% lighter than Model S he obviously was aware of what metals are used for both cars, so aluminum vs. steel was accounted for.

As for the battery pack, take a look at the gravimetric pack level energy density of PowerPack 2 vs. PowerPack 1. It about doubled. The chemistry for TE and TA is obviously different, but the increase in energy density going from the pack based on old cell chemistry and 18650 format to an improved chemistry and 2170 format should be similar.

It is not me, it is Elon who thinks that cost is correlated with weight. See the Q4 2015 ER call quoted upthread.

For more color on how Elon thinks about this see recording posted by @JeffK here.

JB has also stated that, in large part, how much something weighs determines its cost.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Translating to 316 mi/508 km of range for 75kWh battery!!!

Just to mention it:

Worst case, there's a 4 kWh buffer, so 71 kWh available. That would imply a range of 299 miles.

 

[Yuri_G]

Most efficient, best looking, most attainable (eventually) EV. Hold on to your butts...

 

[AlMc]

Just read something about Tesla and Harley Davidson having a JV? Anyone got anything concrete?

Unfortunately it was from an SA headline.

Harley-Davidson jumps amid chatter of Tesla partnership The move higher in shares of Harley-Davidson (HOG) is being attributed by traders to rumors of a potential partnership with Tesla (TSLA) for electric motorcycles. Harley-Davidson recently has also been the subject of takeover speculation. Further, on June 21, Reuters reported that Harley was preparing a bid to acquire Ducati. The shares in late morning trading are up 3%, or $1.39, to $50.03. The Fly, in fulfilling its mission of explaining stock movement, often comes across the many unconfirmed rumors being passed through trading desks and social media platforms. On the occasion that rumors or speculation appear on The Fly's news feed, it should be viewed not as giving credence to the conjecture, rather as simply highlighting its impact on the stock prices of the companies involved.

Read more at:
Harley-Davidson jumps amid chatter of Tesla partnership HOG;TSLA - The Fly

 

[SunCatcher]

Just read something about Tesla and Harley Davidson having a JV? Anyone got anything concrete?

Unfortunately it was from an SA headline.

Oh. Then it must be true.

 

[scaesare]

Model 3: 0.237kWh/mile.

Hmmm.... the same code apparently uses 369Wh/mi for Model S which is way high...

 

[scaesare]

Just to mention it:

Worst case, there's a 4 kWh buffer, so 71 kWh available. That would imply a range of 299 miles.

And in a more likely case, the 75kW packs on the Model S have a 2.4kWh buffer, so 304 miles?

 

[DurandalAI]

Hmmm.... the same code apparently uses 369Wh/mi for Model S which is way high...

369 was for the X, not the S. The S was listed as 344. That is in line with EPA ratings:
Fuel Economy of New All-Electric Vehicles

 

[scaesare]

369 was for the X, not the S. The S was listed as 344. That is in line with EPA ratings:
Fuel Economy of New All-Electric Vehicles

That would be more likely, but to be clear the post referred to said:

The same code Tesla uses he found shows 0.369 kwh/mile for a Model S.

 

[DurandalAI]

That would be more likely, but to be clear the post referred to said:

That first post was in reference to another post.. the original post has the 369 for the Model X.
Possible Model 3 Configurator Information Discloure
From the tesla page directly:

"kwh_consumption":0.369,"supercharger_kwh_price":0.2,"fuel_price":2.73,"kwh_price":0.13},"variant":"mx"
"kwh_consumption":0.237,"supercharger_kwh_price":0.2,"fuel_price":2.85,"kwh_price":0.127},"variant":["m3"
"kwh_consumption":0.344,"supercharger_kwh_price":0.2,"fuel_price":2.73,"kwh_price":0.13},"variant":["ms"
from the page source of:
Order your Tesla | Tesla

 

[tander]

Just wanted to solicit thoughts for earnings next week: Don't want to be too speculative, but anybody think there is good reason that Q2 might be an upset in a positive way? From the delivery numbers I assume expectations are already low. And probably like 90% of focus is going to be on model 3 anyway. What I am thinking is that anything they have to say about model 3, whether it's old news or new is pretty much going to be positive. What if they also say, oh by the way we did a deal with a big home builder and have already sold x months of production of solar panels or batteries and production starts next week? I'm not saying this as though I have evidence of it or anything just, thinking it might be a possibility, it's probably coming at some point.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Model 3: 0.237kWh/mile.

That's pretty amazing. 245-250m range for 58-60kWh?

 

[RobStark]

That's pretty amazing. 245-250m range for 58-60kWh?

I just can't fathom Elon allowing the base M3 to come up just short of the Bolt.