We all estimate next year EV will no longer enjoy 0 FRT, base on some reasons.
1. EV (mainly Model S), sold pretty well in 2015, about 5% of all new cars sold in HK, likely reaching 10% in 2016.
2. Tax lost about HK$ 2 billion in 2015, and will double at 2016. Total lost until 2017 March estimate about HK$ 10 billion.
3. HK government rarely wasted so much tax money on similar projects before. They totally underestimated EV sales, mainly Tesla.
EV's FRT will more likely same with hybrid cars after 2017-3; in fact, the CO2 emission for these 2 types of cars are very close at HK.
No, the CO2 emissions for pure EV vs hybrid are not very close in HK, and the gap is widening every year as the grid improves. CLP saw a 14% reduction in CO2 emissions from power generation last year, and all EVs powered by CLP improved the same amount - in just one year. You also need to take into account all the other emissions harmful to respiratory health. Any tax foregone pales in comparison to the costs that HK people are paying due to our terrible air quality:
Hedley Environmental Index
Also, note that there is no FRT concession for hybrid cars. That ended about a year ago (1st April 2015):
Hong Kong Hybrid + Fuel Efficient FRT tax incentive to end!
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201502/24/P201502240631.htm
So what you are suggesting will happen is that all incentives for EVs will be dropped 1st April 2017, as they are for hybrids, and I just don't think that will/should happen. Government has had this 0% FRT incentive for EVs for more than 20 years now; what kind of message will it send to simply drop it to zero?
I think the government is well aware of two things:
a) Tax foregone is not real money in the bank, and is certainly not money lost. EVs are more expensive so if the EV was not chosen then a cheaper petrol car would have been chosen, and the tax paid less.
b) EVs will continue to be more expensive than comparable ICE vehicles for the coming few years; without incentives the growth we have seen will drop like a cliff.
Last time around (renewal in 2014), despite the nay-sayers, government had considerable support for the extension. It was passed by overwhelming majority.
The problem is public perception. Rich boys toys, and the growing lies and FUD being spread by the vested interests (oil, gas, ICE vehicle manufacturers). I can only imagine how much pressure Mercedes, Audi, and others, are putting on the government behind the scenes.
In my view, the incentives are there to _incentivise_ people to buy EVs. They should remain in place until the majority of cars on the road are EVs. One part of it is that EVs are more expensive than petrol cars, another the inconvenience and cost of charging, and the other part is a general incentive package. The idea is to make the purchase of an EV more attractive than that of a petrol car (even given the charging inconveniences for most).