2015 Q3 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers

[MitchJi]

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...s-inc-to-announce-vehicle-deliveries-ne.aspx

Next week could be a volatile week for Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. On Tuesday, the company will finally show off its fully electric SUV, dubbed Model X. But could Tesla's announcement of third-quarter vehicle sales, which should take place before the week's end, ultimately be the announcement that decides where the stock ends up trading?...

Is Tesla's guidance conservative?
But investors should note that Tesla has met or exceeded its guidance for vehicle deliveries in every quarter except one for the last 10 quarters. It's likely, therefore, that Tesla's actual deliveries in Q3 will exceed guidance. The question, of course, is: By how much?...

 

[hobbes]

Made a poll for Q3 deliveries! Be quick to vote, expires in only 3 days!
Q3 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

 

[maxlength888]

No weather, parts or delivery issues reported and by the looks of the EU thread, deliveries over here are picking up. To me it's in the bag.

Good sir, would you kind enough as to point me to this thread?

 

[Lessmog]

Good sir, would you kind enough as to point me to this thread?

Maybe this one? Link goes to last page.

 

[schonelucht]

Assuming Tesla reports in the first week of November, is there still upside in the stock until then? Or are we looking at mainly drifting on larger sentiment (be it negative or positive?). Start of signature X production, maybe?

Also, what questions in the conference call are you looking forward too?

 

[FredTMC]

Assuming Tesla reports in the first week of November, is there still upside in the stock until then? Or are we looking at mainly drifting on larger sentiment (be it negative or positive?). Start of signature X production, maybe?

Also, what questions in the conference call are you looking forward too?

IMO Largest question to be answered is if Tesla maintains Q4 guidance or not.
MX numbers are part of that

 

[Benz]

PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 10/19/15 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces that it will post its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2015, after market close on Tuesday, November 3, 2015. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q3 2015 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Time(5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...guration-Ramp-(Delivery-Ramp-to-follow)/page3

As of today, the Model X tracker is showing a whopping 3 records. Min VIN is 6, Max VIN is 144.

From the Bonnie thread:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ure-w-X-Sig-2-Config-Delivery-Roadtrip/page24

Tesla told reservation holder jackbowers (VIN 6) to expect delivery in "early December".

Reservation holder (VIN 171) was told to expect delivery around November 16.

Bonnie (VIN 2) has no updates.

Elon is likely going to face some tough questions during the Conference Call about Model X ramp up. In totality, the preliminary indications (Elon's comments that Model X was difficult to build, the slow pace of VINs for Signature Series production) do not look good to me. As Halloween approaches, the ghost of Eds hovers menacingly.

On the bright side, with low expectations, Tesla has a chance to surprise everyone with a faster than expected rollout.

There are roughly 2 months to go in the year.

 

[pGo]

VIN #171 was told the car will finish production around Nov 16. So delivery may as well be early December.

 

[Vger]

My hope, and it is just a hope, is that Elon's talk of lessons learned from the forced rushed rollouts of the early Sigs in Dec. 2012 (including ours), and of the P85Ds in Dec. 2014 have convinced them that it is better to be late and solid than on time and flakey. Particularly with the CR quality survey now hanging over them, I am sure they are going to delay X production until they are confident they can build in great quantity and great quality. That timeframe might well be about to happen, and the floodgates could open in December, but I think that they will hold for as long as they need to to avoid a repeat of the pano roof messes, the next-gen seat retrofits, etc.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok so just for fun and to see how accurate insideEV is for the US, let's do the math.

We now know Europe Q3 was 3341 cars (Europe sales Wiki - i just added in the usual UK guesstimate). As of today we also know that China was 3025. These two total 6366 and this should be very accurate as the EU data is based on forum members collecting official European registrations, while the China number came from Tesla/Elon today.

Q3 deliveries were 11580. 11580-6366=5214. That would be the US and the rest of the world not covered by our data collection.

InsideEVs suggest 5400 for USA Q3, which is 186 higher than what we have left without factoring in that unknown "rest of the world". I am thinking Canada, Australia, rest of Asia.

So InsideEVs could be overestimating US deliveries by 186-400ish?

Thoughts?

 

[schonelucht]

As of today we also know that China was 3025.

That's the full year number, Q3 was 1345. I don't have the time but it would be good to do this exercise for all quarters to get an idea of InsideEV quality numbers.

 

[mrdoubleb]

That's the full year number, Q3 was 1345. I don't have the time but it would be good to do this exercise for all quarters to get an idea of InsideEV quality numbers.

Thanks! Looks like i didn't read that right. No longer able to edit my post, so here is the new math:
Europe 3341 + China 1345 = 4686.
11580 - 4686 = 6894.

So the question becomes, if InsideEVs is right about 5400 for the US, does that mean 1494 for the rest of the world, or are they underestimating the US. I am voting latter. Save for Australia and Canada there aren't big markets left unaccounted for, so 1494 seems a bit high.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/56368-Signature-delivery-now-mid-late-January/page2

All I have to say is that Model S deliveries better be extra strong in Q4, because if the Model X indicators are accurate, Tesla is poised to do a major face plant on deliveries.

This provides both major risk and major opportunity for investors. Lowered guidance for the year, or missing prior guidance, may cause the stock to go on sale. Model X was supposed to ramp up quickly and become a big cash cow for the company. Instead, it's looking like "Model S ramp, part 2". If this all works out, things will be great in 6 months. Until then, be ready for some wild swings.