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Reijnhart said that fossil fuels will be harder and more expensive to get, given that new oil and gas reserves are likely to be found under ice caps, deeper under the sea or under difficult political conditions. Shell’s view is that the 3% of energy for mobility from alternative sources will increase to up to 30% after 2030, with the increase coming from a portfolio of products.
Overall, he called for support from the EU and national governments to ensure that the industry is able to meet the RED targets.
Within this, Shell sees a place for gas, hydrogen and electricity, but Reijnhart was clear that: “We see biofuels as the single most important alternative to hydrocarbons in mobility in the next 20 years.”
I want to emphasize Rich's post and take it a bit further.
With oil prices rising sharply, not only cars with bad mpg will go to the scrap yard. A LOT of people will no longer be able to pay for their commute, even in a 40mpg car.
It is called energy poverty.
The model of large suburbs, commuting downtown, ferrying kids around, shopping at the mall will come to a screeching halt. Governments will direct gas supply to armed forces, ambulance cars, fire fighters, and other emergency services (which will be quite busy because of climate change).
New ways of mobility will emerge, e.g. car sharing (though some will cry "communism!"), or mass transportation. Our current city layout will be revamped.
The time window is closing deadly fast and Tesla will just barely make it to bring Model S to market, let alone Blue Star.
Where does 2050 come from? Who said 5 years?
Just extrapolate the gas price based on the data of the last 20 years.
The trend predicts the US is looking at sustained $10 per gallon gas in about 2024. $20 per gallon gas in 2032. $30 per gallon gas in 2037.
Long before we get to $30 gas ICE cars will be dead. I don't know when it will happen, but with the trajectory we are on now $30 gas could happen in just 26 years.
You can't see what's in front of your nose?Sounds like some apocalyptic movie set in 2050 and beyond... I can't see the landscape changing that drastically in 5 years.
You can't see what's in front of your nose?
The 2008 mortgage crisis was exacerbated by near $150/b oil prices. Many owners of new homes suddenly ran out of money, paying off their mortgage and fueling their commuter car. Others resent from buying new homes far away from the city center because they figured prohibitively high commuting cost from the start. The result was an increase of price drop for the new homes - they became unsellable among all the others that had to send in the keys.
And here is another picture of a drastically changed landscape in Joplin: