Predictions

[sjoshuaj]

Here are my predictions....

Model S (Sedan)
Production Year 2012 (2nd generation platform)
4 Doors, 5 + 2 (Rear Facing) Seats, & Aluminum Body.
160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.5 seconds
Starting at 57,400

Model X (Crossover)
Production Year 2013 (2nd generation platform)
4 Doors, 7 Seats, Off Road / Towing Features, & Aluminum Body.
160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.8 seconds
Starting at 67,400

Model S (Sedan) Convertible
Production Year 2014 (2nd generation platform)
4 Doors, 5 Seats, & Aluminum Body with Carbon Fiber Retractable Roof.
160, 230, or 300 mile range (upgraded to 230, 300, or 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.6 seconds
Starting at 71,400

Model R (Roadster)
Production Year 2015 (3rd generation platform)
2 Doors, 2 + 2 (Vestigial) Seats, & Carbon Fiber Body.
300 mile range (upgraded to 370 mile range in 2016)
0 to 60 MPH in 2.7 seconds (2 Speed Transmission)
Starting at 87,400

Model C (Coupe)
Production Year 2016 (3rd generation platform)
2 Doors, 4 Seats, & Aluminum Body.
160, 230, or 300 mile range
0 to 60 MPH in 5.5 seconds
Starting at 37,400

Model R (Roadster) Convertible
Production Year 2017 (3rd generation platform)
2 Doors, 2 + 2 (Vestigial) Seats, & Carbon Fiber Body with Carbon Fiber Retractable Roof.
370 mile range
0 to 60 MPH in 2.8 seconds (2 Speed Transmission)
Starting at 101,400

Sport edition offered on all models.
All-wheel drive offered on all models (coming to Model S in 2013).

[Mycroft]

So, I have until 2017 to save up another $100,000 eh?

2.8 secs? Bring it on!

[TEG]

These caught my attention:

Here are my predictions...
...
0 to 60 MPH in 2.7 seconds (2 Speed Transmission)
...
All-wheel drive offered on all models (coming to Model S in 2013).

I am not sure that Tesla would want to try again with the 2 speed.
The KISS approach on their current gearbox seems to be working out.
Shifting introduces complexity and possible problems even if only for 2 gears.

Also, AWD in all models? Maybe, but not sure. Saucy prediction.

[William13]

I paid for and read the entire, lengthy analysis from Morgan Stanley. It was not cobbled together from press releases. They actually had multiple valid cash flow predictions/analyses.

I also think that sjoshuoj is close but overly optimistic about the ability of Tesla to put out so many models so quickly. The cash flow will not allow this expansion so quickly without big investments from outside.

[zack]

Here are my predictions...

Model S (Sedan)
Production Year 2012 (2nd generation platform)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.5 seconds
Starting at 57,400

Model S (Sedan) Convertible
Production Year 2014 (2nd generation platform)
0 to 60 MPH in 4.6 seconds
Starting at 71,400

Why raise the price $14,000 and reduce performance? I don't get this prediction.

[AnOutsider]

Convertibles are usually heavier and more expensive than their sedan counterparts, so I can see it.

[zack]

I paid for and read the entire, lengthy analysis from Morgan Stanley. It was not cobbled together from press releases. They actually had multiple valid cash flow predictions/analyses.

I also think that sjoshuoj is close but overly optimistic about the ability of Tesla to put out so many models so quickly. The cash flow will not allow this expansion so quickly without big investments from outside.

Based on $65K each for next year's Model S deliveries, $422M in gross sales for 2012, $1.3B in 2013.

[neroden]

Currently funding is in place for Model S and for model X development in 2013. The next car planned is supposed to be based on the "third generation" platform, but that seems more than a little too aggressive for 2014. It seems more likely to me that Tesla will change their minds and build a convertible based on the model S platform in 2014 before making the third-generation platform.

[VolkerP]

Following Q3 report, Tesla plans two more models on the S platform ("skateboard") before launching cars from the Gen III platform.
See http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...ew_Q3_2011.pdf, page 4 and page 20.
michiganmodels provided that link.

[AnOutsider]

Following Q3 report, Tesla plans two more models on the S platform ("skateboard") before launching cars from the Gen III platform.
See http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...ew_Q3_2011.pdf, page 4 and page 20.
michiganmodels provided that link.

Thanks for that volker. On the earlier pages it lists the s and x on the platform, then lists "other derivative(s)". Meaning one ore more. The graph later on does show the arrows off the platform pointing to s, x and two empty slots, but I wonder if that's just because that's how the original graphic was (from the slideshow).

Regardless, we can be fairly sure we'll get a convertible, but after that, there's the "van", which I don't see selling well unless to fleets, so maybe they may do that after blue star (or just not make a huge deal about it on the consumer side). I ant think of anything else to make from the s platform that would make sense. A wagon? S already has ample storage. A pickup truck? Meh, can't see that either.

*edit* the PDF did clarify that Model X would begin deliveries Q4 2013, putting it 2 years after reveal, and just under a year and a half after the S starts deliveries