Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

I actually wonder if Elon came to the harsh realization "we ultimately can't beat the Chinese" with regard to EV production. The number of Chinese competitors in the space and the rate at which they iterate on new models is, frankly, astounding. This may just be him pivoting the company as quickly as possible while they still have a material revenue stream from the cars to the thing he thinks they can compete and lead in in: RoboTaxis, Robots, AI-a-go-go, etc.

Chinese build a lot of things a lot cheaper than American companies can, that doesn’t mean American companies dont still dominate their own home market and take a sizable share of international market. (Especially when your government adds a 100% tariff to chinese imports)

We dont even have to leave the Auto space to find comparisons - decent quality Chinese ICE cars are substantially cheaper than American & European models, yet plenty of American & European models still sell well around the world at far higher prices.

American companies usually dominate in the US with superior brand allegience, service & marketing.

 

[2daMoon]

On the other hand I feel that Elon doesn’t care about us

What gave you the impression he ever did? (not that he doesn't want us to get rich for investing, it just isn't what motivates him)

He's grateful for us helping. But he isn't doing what he does only for the shareholders. He's doing it for all of mankind.

He's been quite transparent about the mission, advising folks to avoid buying TSLA if you don't care for volatility, and other things along those lines at every step along the way.

Tesla is different from other companies. Write that down on a Post-it Note and put it on the fridge door.

 

[Joe F]

Interesting. All I hear is; “So what have you done for me lately.”

 

[UrsS]

I actually wonder if Elon came to the harsh realization "we ultimately can't beat the Chinese" with regard to EV production. The number of Chinese competitors in the space and the rate at which they iterate on new models is, frankly, astounding. This may just be him pivoting the company as quickly as possible while they still have a material revenue stream from the cars to the thing he thinks they can compete and lead in in: RoboTaxis, Robots, AI-a-go-go, etc.

If I recall correctly Elon initially just wanted to demonstrate to the Automobile Industry (OEM) that electric cars can be equivalent or better than ICE cars and can be manufactured at similar costs. But the OEMs declined, except the ones in China. Now that the Chinese auto industry is becoming world dominant in electric vehicles there is no need for Tesla to continue on that mission. Elon has achieved that goal.
Although I wish Tesla would make the $25,000 car - but it looks like there are already plenty of Chinese alternatives available - except in the USA.

 

[samppa]

My best friend is leading the design of the battery enclosure for Lilium. Crazy challenge. He's basically inventing a new material. We were talking about how to perform a dielectric withstand test on a panel of the substance the other day. Stock has been doing well. He said it's because Lilium threatened to take their toys to France unless they got some German government money, which they got.

Where are they at with the development? I looked and looks like they don't have a flying prototype yet.

 

[samppa]

If I recall correctly Elon initially just wanted to demonstrate to the Automobile Industry (OEM) that electric cars can be equivalent or better than ICE cars and can be manufactured at similar costs. But the OEMs declined, except the ones in China. Now that the Chinese auto industry is becoming world dominant in electric vehicles there is no need for Tesla to continue on that mission. Elon has achieved that goal.
Although I wish Tesla would make the $25,000 car - but it looks like there are already plenty of Chinese alternatives available - except in the USA.

A coworker just bought an Mg4 standard. Comes with 50 kwh battery and something like 150kw motor, its a surprisingly good car! No Tesla, but certainly better than any ICE at that price point.
MG4 Standard costs 27 900€ here, thats with 24% VAT included.

 

[insaneoctane]

Seems like FSD is good enough to do the cross country drive that Elon teased years ago. Maybe it will come up during 8/8? I'd like to see Tesla follow through on that challenge.

 

[CitizenKane]

I think people get a bit too obsessed with the 20 million cars a year goal. I'm an investor, not a car collector. If the best way for Tesla to make a ton of cash is to make 2 million robotaxis, or 1 million taxis and 5 million bots, then lets do that. I'm sure BYD will keep making EVs.
We all, quite rightly, ridicule companies like toyota for sticking to their doomed long term plan of hydrogen and hybrid cars, long after the facts have changed and both are clearly stupid.
I trust Elon to make a way better long term strategic decision than anybody else. This is a guy planning a mars colony. Long term strategic vision is kind of his special skill.
Not long until autonomy day part two when we find out the truth. I am definitely holding on to see what is coming. I expect a bright future for both FSD and Bots. I also expect that a lot of the negativity about future car production is overblown. Tesla definitely have other things in development than bot and RT.

Also BTW cybertruck ramp is still a thing, and still making insanely overpriced foundation series only. This is awesome.
Also Semi factory and megapack factory under construction too. Good times ahead.

I think it's more that as long as the 20 million car manufacturing plan and the yearly 50% growth goals were credible, it was easy to defend TSLA valuation and even see it as rather cheap, whereas the new direction is much more of a "pie in the sky". Successful investors tend to focus more on avoiding losses than finding the next new thing. Investing is not speculating.

But I agree that good news about Semi and energy should be positive for investors.

 

[GatorMeat]

I have the proxy statements for a couple old days now and I don’t know what to do.
On the one hand I feel it is not fair to come back on what has been agreed upon.

On the other hand I feel that Elon doesn’t care about us - the Twitter fiasco still stings.
Also the ever increasing outlandish projection regarding robots, FSD, AI, number of giga factories etc. more often than not fail to come to fruition especially in the timeframe mentioned by Elon. It is just getting harder to take him seriously. Yes, he has done some amazing things in the past, but the real revolutionary things like landing rockets on barges in the middle of the ocean; that has been a while already.

I like FSD but I don’t see robotaxis happening any time soon and I also doubt the market projections for that.

Maybe it's time for us shareholders to turn the tables on Elon and tell him to 'GFY". Elon's life has been an absolute disaster the last 3 years and he has lost the support of many former fans and shareholders. Now Tesla's are piling up in inventory lots across the globe, Austin has been making fewer Model Y's than CT the last couple weeks and Elon is trying to pivot everyone's attention away from this dumpster fire. Maybe he'll turn it around, but I'm afraid the damage has been done

 

[aubreymcfato]

A coworker just bought an Mg4 standard. Comes with 50 kwh battery and something like 150kw motor, its a surprisingly good car! No Tesla, but certainly better than any ICE at that price point.
MG4 Standard costs 27 900€ here, thats with 24% VAT included.

In Italy you can buy it up to 13k€ with incentives.

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm in scandinavia, where we have quite good high speed rail connecting all major cities. Major routes trains speed up to 200 km/h.

But either trains are ridiculously expensive, or flying is riduculously cheap, prices are pretty much equal. A 6-hour train trip costs about the same as a 1-hour flight for the same route.

Aviation is still quite heavily subsidised. Nothings gonna change if these subsidies won't be cut.

For longer distances, overnight sleeper trains are usually much more expensive than flying.

Indeed... last year I had a train booked from Stockholm to Oslo, a few days before it was due it got cancelled, all the alternative trains were either full or the timing didn't work, I checked flights and it worked out only slightly more expensive, with business lounge included... so yeah, I don't care for flying, and avoid it if I can, but on this occasion I had no other options and it worked out very well

 

[hpiv]

Deciding that the value proposition of Twitter for your goal of creating a "public square" for public discourse is no longer attractive, but having a judge deem you must go through with it, in no way implies that he's interested in self-enrichment for the sake of it, rather than it having been a laudable goal.

I wouldn't necessarily say it's for self-enrichment. I don't know his reasons for doing what he's doing. Rather, it is another example of his actions not matching his words. Now that he has already been forced to acquire Twitter after first trying to get out of the deal, his words are as if he never tried to get out of the deal in the first place. Now he's all about how free speech was vitally important and that's why it was important to buy Twitter. But if that was the case, why did he try to avoid buying it?

His stated interest was in being able to have sufficient control. Again, his interest is in the mission, and that's how he feels he can best see it through.

His compensation plan was potentially thwarted, hence the resources he believed he had didn't materialize. Given that the Twitter acquisition was/had gone through, he felt he then had to address his Tesla position.

How is that indicative of his being about the money rather than the goals he has for those companies?

Sure, I am not arguing that he is in it for the money (although I do believe he has stated that he wants to use money from his ownership stake in Tesla to go to Mars). But again, we're back to words not matching actions. Now the alleged importance of him owning at least 25% of the shares. That apparently was not much of an issue when he dumped Tesla stock on the market to acquire Twitter. He had no problems selling down and losing more control of the company. But suddenly it was vitally important and he needed at least 25% "or else".

Or... people misconstrue his actions and the motives behind them.

Right... so can you help me make sense of his actions that, at least to me, do not match his words, as in the two examples above?

Claiming that buying Twitter is so important that even Tesla has to take a back seat, and yet he tried to get out of the deal.

Claiming that at least owning at least 25% is vitally important for him to trust the company with AI and robotics, and yet he had not problem dumping a significant portion of his ownershin in Tesla on the market in order to buy Twitter.

I can't make sense of it. He claims that two things that are mutually exclusive are so important most other things have to take a back seat, and yet in practice his actions seem to indicate that they are not that important after all.

 

[hpiv]

I think people get a bit too obsessed with the 20 million cars a year goal. I'm an investor, not a car collector. If the best way for Tesla to make a ton of cash is to make 2 million robotaxis, or 1 million taxis and 5 million bots, then lets do that. I'm sure BYD will keep making EVs.
We all, quite rightly, ridicule companies like toyota for sticking to their doomed long term plan of hydrogen and hybrid cars, long after the facts have changed and both are clearly stupid.
I trust Elon to make a way better long term strategic decision than anybody else. This is a guy planning a mars colony. Long term strategic vision is kind of his special skill.
Not long until autonomy day part two when we find out the truth. I am definitely holding on to see what is coming. I expect a bright future for both FSD and Bots. I also expect that a lot of the negativity about future car production is overblown. Tesla definitely have other things in development than bot and RT.

Also BTW cybertruck ramp is still a thing, and still making insanely overpriced foundation series only. This is awesome.
Also Semi factory and megapack factory under construction too. Good times ahead.

But as someone already pointed out, Tesla's mission is not to make a ton of cash. It is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy and transport. But now those cheaper mass-market vehicles to replace cheaper ICE vehicles are no longer necessary?

After FSD v12 I am more convinced than ever that autonomy will be achieved and robotaxis will be possible, but it could take a lot longer than people expect. And in the meantime, ICE vehicles are poisoning us with local emissions and contributing significantly to global climate change.

Robotaxis are great and all, but we are not there yet, and in the meantime we can't afford to decelerate the transition. Tesla should be able to do both cheaper mass-market vehicles to replace ICE vehicles as soon as possible and keep the same focus and resources on FSD and robotaxis. If anyone can do multiple things at the same time within the same company, it's Elon. I mean, he's running SpaceX, Tesla and other things at the same time. Why did he not use Tesla's profitability and cash generation to accelerate cheaper vehicles while keeping up the same pace on FSD?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

As a shareholder for several years now (I did not just jump in during the euphoria of 2020, so I am still significantly up on my position), I feel that Elon kind of has betrayed my trust.

There is no denying that he achieved amazing things, things that most people never believed would be possible. However, I also feel misled when it comes to things like the goal of 20 million cars yearly by 2030 and the cheaper $25k model. Or what about "unlimited demand for current models" just before demand started collapsing? Just 3 examples. It is now clear that Elon, at the very least, has pivoted away from his previous promises.

20M cars a year is no longer needed if robotaxis succeed, it is said. And the $25k model is not needed either because everyone will be using robotaxis instead. Demand for existing cars was going to be unlimited anyway.

Remember, Elon was talking about robotaxis well before his compensation plan suddenly looked to be achievable. So why the change of heart now? Why only after Tesla run up on promises of 20M cars a year and a $25k compact "just around the corner"?

Would Tesla have reached the required market cap to trigger Elon's full compensation package had he not promised those and other things?

It almost feels like Elon made these promises knowing full well that they were never real. He knew all along that the robotaxi was the ultimate goal, and as soon as robotaxi was on the horizon, everything else would be prioritized down. He knew demand for current vehicles was softening as well. But he made the promises anyway. He set goals for sales and model types he perhaps never actually intended to deliver. He also knew demand was far from unlimited, as he claimed it to be in public.

And those fake goals and false promises, I think, helped increase Tesla's market cap due to the promise of continued growth for at least 5-10 more years.

Had he been honest and said "we're going to see zero to negative sales growth within the next couple of years, and it will last until robotaxis are ready", I doubt Tesla would have reached the market cap needed to reach the goals of the at least the last tranche of the compensation package.

Am I alone in thinking about the situation in this way?

yawn yawn

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Where are they at with the development? I looked and looks like they don't have a flying prototype yet.

The five seater prototype is under construction. All flights so far have been with a smaller (2 seater equivalent) unmanned model. Latest videos on their website.

 

[Spacep0d]

Driving a vehicle with no armor on a highway full of vehicles with 10x the mass, the vehicle moniker is "donor cycle" ...whose brain is the issue? Only 1 person, the person that got on a donor cycle.

I'd hate to see your take on pedestrians.

 

[nativewolf]

I'd hate to see your take on pedestrians.

If pedestrians decide to run down a highway at 80mph I bet they would have worse than donor cycles 400% increase in accidents and 1600% increase in mortality and I absolutely would not care. Motorcyclist know they are engaging in an extremely risky behavior, if they wish to engage in that it is on them. I don't have sympathy for skydivers either if you were going to ask, and I've been on donor cycles and used to skydive. Giant risks, don't expect society to baby proof the world when the problem is the user who makes a conscious choice to engage in risky behavior.

Ask me how I feel about bicyclist /s

Teslas and many other modern cars with accident avoidance systems are probably saving a lot of donor cycle lives. Tesla will probably be the best at scale of all of them.

 

[Knightshade]

Seems like FSD is good enough to do the cross country drive that Elon teased years ago. Maybe it will come up during 8/8? I'd like to see Tesla follow through on that challenge.

Just since I expect some folks will argue about this, the context of what/when Elon actually teased this-


Initially in Sept 2015 he said

My guess for when we will have full autonomy is approximately three years.

He folowed this up in Oct 2016 with:

I feel pretty good about this goal. We'll be able to do a demonstration guide of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York. So basically from home in LA to Times Square in New York. And then have the car go and park itself by the end of next year

I don't think there's any chance, at all, of an actual fully autonomous trip like that this year. I expect a human supervised one might be possible with a few updates (a more automatic autopark including at superchargers, and better toll booth handling come to mind off hand)....though I'd be very surprised if it was possible with 0 interventions the whole trip.

 

[willow_hiller]

FSD Supervised V12.4 is officially hands-free (given the camera is not occluded, there is sufficient cabin illumination, and the driver is looking forward at the road ahead and not wearing sunglasses, a hat with a low brim, or other objects covering the eyes):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792528797759107230

 

[FastEddieB]

Driving a vehicle with no armor on a highway full of vehicles with 10x the mass, the vehicle moniker is "donor cycle" ...whose brain is the issue? Only 1 person, the person that got on a donor cycle.

At 74, I still love to ride, albeit a bit slower and more cautiously than I did in those heady days of youth. I moved to where I live now due primarily to the wonderful motorcycle roads in the area. Been riding for the better part of 60 years, and I’ll continue as long as I am able.

As far as “no armor”, cautious riders have an acronym: ATTGAT. All The Gear All The Time. Helmet, armored jacket and pants*, boots and gloves. All The Time. Such gear has saved me from serious injury more than once.

https://flic.kr/p/arVchG

As an aside, I feel far more vulnerable on a bicycle than I do on one of my motorcycles.

*I admittedly sometimes forgo the riding pants, and just go with jeans when riding locally. My bad.