Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[spacecoin]

Every investment has a projected P&L. How’s that working out?

I think Waymo will be cash-flow positive by 2027-2028. When do you think Tesla will deploy a taxi operations, 2030? Break even by 2035?

 

[aataskin]

It won't be "taxi operators" using it, it will be end users like Uber/Lyft (with elements of Turo), which managed to convince many people to be a driver even though many people doing so may be better off getting a minimum wage job, once all expenses are accounted for.

But still, to make it to the end user, the taxi needs to be an L5 or at least a geofenced L4, no?

If not taxi operators then who owns those robotaxis and is ultimately responsible when they get into accidents?

 

[aataskin]

I think Waymo will be cash-flow positive by 2027-2028. When do you think Tesla will deploy a taxi operations, 2030? Break even by 2035?

I wonder how many lawsuits they get if their robotaxis employ tech different from the regular M3s that were promised to turn into, well, robotaxis

 

[JulienW]

But still, to make it to the end user, the taxi needs to be an L5 or at least a geofenced L4, no?....

L4 doesn't mean it must be geofenced.

 

[stopcrazypp]

But still, to make it to the end user, the taxi needs to be an L5 or at least a geofenced L4, no?

Another beat me to it, but L4 doesn't have to be geofenced.

If not taxi operators then who owns those robotaxis and is ultimately responsible when they get into accidents?

It will be regular vehicle owners, just like how Uber/Lyft/Turo operates, not "taxi operators". As such, they will not be the type to necessarily do all the expense calculations to see if they are actually making a profit (as an experienced taxi business owner may do).

In a business owner's mind, all the expenses of operating the vehicle would be accounted for and the net profit of an RT may end up negative (as is the case of practically all the current fleet based RTs out there). However, for your typical vehicle owner, the premise is they already own the vehicle for personal use, and then any revenue they bring in from RT is just some extra bonus income. That changes the equation significantly (and also what Uber/Lyft/Turo relies on).

 

[DrChaos]

Actually I've no doubt Elon will announce a completely autonomous robotaxi without a steering wheel or any other controls in August.
Just like he announced the new Tesla Roadster in November 2017 and started taking deposits soon after.

I predict there will also be a "spinoff/tracker" stock corporation with all Tesla AI/robotics assets put in and a Secondary Public Offering to catch AI hype in capital markets, and with of course Elon getting 51% of shares of this for free without putting in dime himself and an even more compliant board.

 

[aataskin]

Another beat me to it, but L4 doesn't have to be geofenced.

It will be regular vehicle owners, just like how Uber/Lyft/Turo operates, not "taxi operators". As such, they will not be the type to necessarily do all the expense calculations to see if they are actually making a profit (as an experienced taxi business owner may do).

In a business owner's mind, all the expenses of operating the vehicle would be accounted for and the net profit of an RT may end up negative (as is the case of practically all the current fleet based RTs out there). However, for your typical vehicle owner, the premise is they already own the vehicle for personal use, and then any revenue they bring in from RT is just some extra bonus income. That changes the equation significantly (and also what Uber/Lyft/Turo relies on).

This is exactly what he promised years ago, no? Leather, rinse, repeat..

 

[diplomat33]

Appears to be leaked concept art for a two seater robotaxi with no steering wheel.

 

[diplomat33]

Renders of the Tesla CyberCab robotaxi.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792833154962636899

It looks cool. But I can't see it going on highways. And it is only a 2-seater. I feel like it will work best on low speed roads in cities. So it could work as a 1-2 person ride-hailing vehicle only in dense urban geofences.

EDIT: I will go ahead and make a prediction that on 8/8, we see a demo of a person riding in the cybercab on a carefully cherry picked route, similar to the driverless demo Waymo did with the blind man riding in the Firefly. Maybe Elon even arrives in the cyercab? Even though it would be a carefully orchestrated demo, I think showing a driverless demo would help to promote Tesla's narrative that they are serious about FSD and robotaxis.

 

[aataskin]

Renders of the Tesla CyberCab robotaxi.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792833154962636899

It looks cool. But I can't see it going on highways. And it is only a 2-seater. I feel like it will work best on low speed roads in cities. So it could work as a 1-2 person ride-hailing vehicle only in dense urban geofences.

EDIT: I will go ahead and make a prediction that on 8/8, we see a demo of a person riding in the cybercab on a carefully cherry picked route, similar to the driverless demo Waymo did with the blind man riding in the Firefly. Maybe Elon even arrives in the cyercab? Even though it would be a carefully orchestrated demo, I think showing a driverless demo would help to promote Tesla's narrative that they are serious about FSD and robotaxis.

If you are serious about something then why would you box yourself into solving a much harder problem (Vision only FSD) than your competition?

And then what happens to the current Tesla line up and all those claims about the HW4? If the robotaxis are running on HW4 then why can't existing HW4 cars do the same? And if it's not HW4 but rather HW5 or whatever then does it mean that HW4 and lower will never be FSD?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

But I can't see it going on highways. And it is only a 2-seater

Tesla needs to duplicate the Spark EV. This Is The Way.

This was the pinnacle of small EVs in the US and nothing better has come along since.

Four doors and way shorter than anything currently in the US EV market.

Also kinda peppy. I don’t have one in my garage for nothing.

The real range of 45-50 miles isn’t great but Tesla can work on that.

i suppose it could be wider? Hard to improve on perfection.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Renders of the Tesla CyberCab robotaxi.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792833154962636899

It looks cool. But I can't see it going on highways. And it is only a 2-seater. I feel like it will work best on low speed roads in cities. So it could work as a 1-2 person ride-hailing vehicle only in dense urban geofences.

EDIT: I will go ahead and make a prediction that on 8/8, we see a demo of a person riding in the cybercab on a carefully cherry picked route, similar to the driverless demo Waymo did with the blind man riding in the Firefly. Maybe Elon even arrives in the cyercab? Even though it would be a carefully orchestrated demo, I think showing a driverless demo would help to promote Tesla's narrative that they are serious about FSD and robotaxis.

If it's small 2 door 2 seater, I'm not optimistic that this would extend much further than a very limited demo period. There is a reason why the rest of the industry moved away from them. Although this does answer the prayers of those hoping for a small more affordable 2 seater/2 door EV (this platform might serve as a basis for a non-AV version).

 

[DrChaos]

If you are serious about something then why would you box yourself into solving a much harder problem (Vision only FSD) than your competition?

nerds are cheaper than mass producing electronics

And then what happens to the current Tesla line up and all those claims about the HW4?

So, you're going to sue the wealthiest man in the world who has a nasty attitude?

If the robotaxis are running on HW4 then why can't existing HW4 cars do the same?

Some 4s are more equal than other 4s.

And if it's not HW4 but rather HW5 or whatever then does it mean that HW4 and lower will never be FSD?

no car sold today will ever be able to take non-driving passengers in a legal commercial paid service

some of them might be running similar core software but without the additional safety and reliability and sensor inputs.

 

[JulienW]

....And then what happens to the current Tesla line up and all those claims about the HW4? If the robotaxis are running on HW4 then why can't existing HW4 cars do the same? And if it's not HW4 but rather HW5 or whatever then does it mean that HW4 and lower will never be FSD?

I suspect the RT will be HW5 since that should be near complete and ready to start fabing. Also besides HW5 I bet it will have better and addtunal cameras that our cars are missing. I don't believe that any of the personal cars we own will ever make *L4 BUT I'm starting to believe we could get a wide/useful ODD L3 system if Tesla the insurance industry and regulators can come together.

Elon will continue to "believe" or at least spout that all will be L4 or RT level but not happening. I'd bet my rent money on that.

* One reason is not being able to see in front of the car. A situation would arise where a child gets in front of the bumper playing and the car would not know and drive over and drag the body possibly miles. While a human is excused it would be a death nail for Tesla's L4 FSD.

 

[ThomasD]

Tesla gets this Robotaxi thing going then Musk gets Pissed Off and fires the whole AV customer service team.

 

[aataskin]

* One reason is not being able to see in front of the car. A situation would arise where a child gets in front of the bumper playing and the car would not know and drive over and drag the body possibly miles. While a human is excused it would be a death nail for Tesla's L4 FSD.

Agree completely. The most useful thing on a car I ever had was a fisheye camera in the nose. Where I live it's more useful than an autopilot.

 

[lb92677]

My prediction is that the robotaxi will be approved using the model in China and the US. The robotaxis will have tesla vision and high res radar. Lidar may not be required. What will be required will be pre mapped streets. Therefore it will be available in San Francisco and Phoenix that have pre mapped streets. Tesla owners might be able to use their cars as robotaxis if they live in these areas and their cars have high rez radar along with the cameras

 

[JulienW]

...... Therefore it will be available in San Francisco and Phoenix that have pre mapped streets......

What do you mean "have pre mapped streets". (almost) Every street in the world is mapped. Are you trying to say Tesla has HD mapped them? if so what proof do you have? Seems EXTREMELY doubtful Tesla would rely on HD mapping. Even if they decided to do and use HD mapping the service launch still some time away so seems mostly useless other than practice at HD mapping.

 

[lb92677]

What do you mean "have pre mapped streets". (almost) Every street in the world is mapped. Are you trying to say Tesla has HD mapped them? if so what proof do you have? Seems EXTREMELY doubtful Tesla would rely on HD mapping. Even if they decided to do and use HD mapping the service launch still some time away so seems mostly useless other than practice at HD mapping.

I mean highly detailed mapping designed for self driving cars similiar to what Waymo uses. Regulators might require this. I know in China it is required for self driving.

 

[JulienW]

I mean highly detailed mapping designed for self driving cars similiar to what Waymo uses. Regulators might require this. I know in China it is required for self driving.

Again maps are maps and everyone has access to maps plus all cities in the uses have about the same details on all the mapping services. Waymo uses HD mapping but that is unrelated to what Tesla is doing. There is no regulations in the US and I highly doubt there is in China either that you must HD map roads first and then use that data to drive.

EDIT: I think you may have a misunderstanding of what HD maps are.