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No problem. There are roads around there where you need a real 4x4 (lippincott pass) it just getting into Saline Valley is easy.

I did tow a front wheel drive RAV4 that was stuck in an inch of snow on a steep section of road, so not any crossover. I'd be curious to see a more scientific test. I wonder what the true ~35mph on dirt road range is. I expected it to be quite good given how good EV's are on-road at that speed...

Very clever to invite Chuck to shareholder meeting. Pretty clear indication that the first 9 has not been achieved.

This wait is ridiculous even when accounting for Elon time...

It's after 6pm so left turns are legal. It looks to me like there's plenty of room to move into the right lane before the light. It looks like what happens is that it plans on making a U-turn and then change its mind (perhaps because it can't read the time restriction on the sign).

LOL. I made the right decision not betting on this version. I still think 12.5 will get the first 9 of performance.

It does appear that the VE with a booster was about 95% in the fall of 2021 despite lockdowns being over. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35045566/#:~:text=Outcomes%20were%20symptomatic%20coronavirus%20disease,around%2085%25%20to%2095%25.

What VE did studies conducted in the fall of 2021 show? When air travel was only down 25%. I guess I’ll have to check.

What is different about the way the studies are being conducted today? There were many studies that confirmed the "95% effective" numbers. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8595975/

Seems a bit silly to worry about getting a vaccine ready in early September when cases will probably be going down. They should worry about the wave that starts in November. And of course over two months ago these “flirt” variants were predicted to be become dominant. Novavax could have...

It’s probably your look of constant irritation. It’s trained to recognize when people get too relaxed.

They also presented updates on vaccine effectiveness. https://www.fda.gov/media/179140/download 45% VE for symptomatic infection, 42% VE for hospitalization. After 120 days only 16% VE for hospitalization. Interestingly VE for infection was better after 120 days at 47%.

The new booster isn't coming out until September so no problem with that. As I said I'm probably not going to get it unless there is some evidence that it works for people who have been infected with a post JN.1 variant.

https://apnews.com/article/covid-vaccines-updated-moderna-pfizer-novavax-72c2c5fafc46ccc9f2fd89fcda5d99df Sounds like a Novavax bailout. There are mutations common to almost all current variants not in JN.1. Not sure why they're predicting that those won't be in the Fall and Winter variants. I...

Please do not believe any companies autonomous vehicle predictions. https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2016/08/16/ford-targets-fully-autonomous-vehicle-for-ride-sharing-in-2021.html Have we learned nothing?

You don’t have to pay attention with L3. I doubt many collisions are primarily caused by slow reaction time. I think people really want self-driving cars and don’t want machine nannies so we won’t set the bar too high.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport An interesting question is whether the bar is human driven or human+machine driven. It seems possible that human driving with machine assist is unbeatable.

I said that’s the exception. I think any other L3 will be similar difficultly to robotaxi. Also I’m not convinced the Mercedes system will be safe. They haven’t tested it very much.

Except for traffic jam L3 that sounds even more difficult than robotaxis (which are very close to L3 in my opinion because they rely on remote assistance). Robotaxis can be geofenced to much smaller areas than a practical consumer system.

Interesting, maybe it won’t be a robotaxi at all. It might just be a regular car with “cyber” design language and FSD (supervised)

We’ll see when Tesla actually releases the Robotaxi. I would note that most detractors only thought it was not possible with current technology not that it would never be possible.

There’s a difference between necessary interventions and interventions though. Cruise and Waymo both went driverless after they reached about 5-10k miles between disengagements because the vast majority of disengagements did not prevent a collision. I agree that FSD won’t get there on the...

Yeah this seems like an admission that 10.4 will not be 5-10x better. “Massive number of changes” = regressions in Elon speak.

I guess I would need to a similar intersection with stop signs that can’t be seen to understand what you’re talking about. There are also no stop lines in the other directions. It also doesn’t look like any of the stop signs would be in the camera blind spot.

Intersections like that exist in San Diego too. It doesn’t look difficult to see that the other directions do not have a stop sign. This one is actually a little trickier because there is a sign to the right but it’s a yield sign. No stop sign for cars turning left.

Somehow I missed that! Though it does make it clear that these intervention numbers are goals and not “engineering reality.” Makes me wonder if this Ashok Xeet was misinterpreted. Perhaps this was after Elon told him 12.4 would have 5-10x fewer interventions and he knew his time at Tesla would...

I wonder if the 5x-10x fewer interventions goal has been met?

@AlanSubie4Life would be in hog heaven on the Solterra forums, so much to complain about. :p

Need to start a gofundme to get @AlanSubie4Life a Subaru Solterra.

Just make sure you buy a car with FSD 1.0 not the "automatic driving on city streets" or "autosteer on city streets" garbage.

We no longer have access to the beta version of FSD so there's really no way to know Tesla's progress. FSD beta could be close to robotaxi by now.

Can't use L3 if you're drunk.

Had to get rid of all the CNNs…

Maybe they really are gating the release of V12.4 on Chuck's turn? 10x fewer interventions would be great progress (though probably need 100,000x fewer for Robotaxi.) I wonder how many times in a row Chuck could do it without crashing.

Waymo is liable when their test drivers crash too (same as any other company employing drivers.) I think you can assume the Waymo Driver would have had a collision whenever they say “shortly”. The paper where they looked at all the collisions they had in Phoenix didn’t describe any cases where...

You’re going to look pretty dumb when a FOIA request shows that the NHTSA is requiring FSD to stop 10 feet behind the line.

New vehicle! Hopefully this will fix the bad training data problem. I think Chuck also has a Model Y.

They said the car ran the red light because of human error by remote assistance. Clearly remote assistance changes what the Waymo Driver is allowed to do.

The Zoox robotaxi does not have a front and back. https://zoox.com/vehicle

Yeah that’s obviously not true though. For example we know that remote assistance can run red lights. However I’m not saying they intend to have remote assistance be able to run into a telephone pole. I’m saying I could see remote assistance code being way more likely to have bugs.

Obviously it should still be functioning. Lots of ways to screw up programming. Maybe the transition between autonomous and remote assistance maneuver has a bug. Maybe remote assistance can give the car authority to hit stationary objects in some cases (low tree branch? Tumbleweed? Balloon?)...

Yeah. I’m just saying it’s much more likely for there to be bug in fleet response mode than normal autonomous mode. Figuring out where to stop to pick people up is something Waymo and Cruise have struggled with. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s one of the most common causes of fleet response.

My guess is the Waymo was using remote assistance and there is a bug that allowed it hit the poll. They’ve driven 7 million driverless miles without any other known collisions with fixed object so it seems unlikely it was in its normal operating mode.

Watching the video of the actual remote interface I don't really see any significant lag. This could just be an artifact of a fun demo mode (obviously you can't actually pause real life).

Thanks, wasn't too bad. Very tired and achy for a few days with low level fever. I assume one these "flirt" variants are what got me (right at the yearly low point for circulation!).

Just got Covid for the first time last week so 0% effective as far as I'm concerned. :p Last year they presented a bunch of data on the previous vaccine when they were approving the new one.

Being charged with homicide is a legal reason not to use it unsupervised... https://electrek.co/2024/04/23/tesla-driver-arrested-homicide-running-over-motorcyclist-autopilot/ Though I do agree that the implication of that advertisement is that FSD was close to complete.

Yes, automation complacency is a big issue with these systems. Looking in the manual I'm surprised they don't have specific warning for large vehicles going across the path of travel. There have been quite a few fatal collisions where people have hit the side of trailers (train cars seem very...

I would strongly suggest not trying a third time. I feel like your case would be stronger if you didn’t say it was the second time. Did you crash the first time too? Anyway this is a well known issue and there is a warning in the manual.

I’ve made your robotaxi design.