I agree that I personally won't care, but let's put it this way :
If Tesla needs 10B to achieve those 50% growth a given year, and that a recession hits, and no one wants to spend any money because they're afraid to lose their job, so the institutional investors money dries up, they stop investing...Tesla won't get those 10B. They won't achieve 50% growth this given year.
I disagree. In a vacuum, speaking about random company A, I would agree. But what we are actually talking about is a company that sells products that will save people money and are vastly better then the competition. In a recession, not everyone stops spending money. The people who spend money will do so on the best products. Did Apple grow in 2007-8-9? Honest question as I have no idea.
Tesla is not invulnerable, they are actually in a very precarious position. Having trouble ramping production, tax credits evaporating and debt piling up while the president talks about tariffs. I honestly don't know why you more liberal folks aren't putting all your money under your mattress if you really believe the Russia collision and trade war stuff.
I personal think the whole tariff thing is a negotiating ploy to get more fair trade including the issues Elon complained about on Twitter and European auto import duties on American cars. I think recession is 2 years out at the earliest. I expect it to be mild, as we still havent even recovered from the last one yet due to the massive numbers of people still out of the work force.
That 2 years is critical for Tesla. They MUST be able to satisfy demand. It's going to be very hard and maybe impossible, but I think they will grow over 50% a year on average, even though a recession. Don't forget, a recession isn't going to help Tesla's competitors make competitive vehicles. They will corner the market on $12,000 cars for sure. But Tesla will dominate the $40k+ market. Companies looking to save money will look to the semi and solar. Utilities as well. Consumers who but EVs as well. Tesla has the solutions, not the legacy issues.
Just look no further then Tesla's own timelines for these products to come to market. All in my opinion before any recession and cheap money drying up. Take the pickup for example. The capex for the pickup is not due until the machines are installed and confirmed to be working. To me it's a race to the pickup, to beat the recession. But that's the best case, not the worst. The worst case, Tesla pushes out the pickup and focused on S3XY, Semi and R2. Revisit the pickup in 2021 when the monetary stimulus kicks in.
In short, recession don't hurt companies with great products and massive demand. They hurt the old fashion industries. Gm and Ford barely made it through the last one. Chrysler really didn't. Hell gm shouldn't have.
Same goes with space x. If launch budgets get cut, stuff still needs to get to space. Space x will thrive in that environment.
