Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[advocate8]

As someone who also deals with data and reports, I like this take by Jordan:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790072726507385059

It’s interesting, but it is no way to manage people for high performance. Even on the unlikely change it improves performance slightly on the SC team, if there ever is one, it will add to the increasing sense company wide that the place is managed by fear, which has long been known to work short-term but not long term.
What he describes is a kind of way to short-circuit your team so you can micromanage.
And if this is actually what he was doing, it’s also simply no way to treat humans.
It seems lot more likely that it was just a reactionary decision and Jordan, being a fanboy like Sandy etc is coming up with a rationalization for it that is about three levels more clever than the actual motivation.

 

[2daMoon]

It’s interesting, but it is no way to manage people for high performance.

More comedy gold!

Tesla, not managing people for high performance. That is rich. I nearly spit my coffee reading that.

What else you got?

 

[GOVA]

Some people clearly still don't realize that this very forum would not exist if there were no ELON.
Don't get me started on few other lines of business.

 

[advocate8]

No one who follows Elon should be surprised by his method of letting people go and subsequently rehiring some.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790055817737044393

He’s not really wired to manage people. It’s not the sort of exact science that implies.

 

[2daMoon]

He’s not really wired to manage people. It’s not the sort of exact science that implies.

Rather than point out what someone isn't wired for, how about what they are wired for?

Those little things, like having a bit of a knack for disrupting century old industries with deep roots and deep pockets, and other inconsequential tendencies along these lines. These sort of minor attributes might add up to something, someday, if only Elon were to really apply himself to developing such qualities.

It is so disappointing how he hasn't been able to motivate the employees toward high performance though. Just imagine where his companies would be if only he could have done better.

If only he were more transparent and had spelled out his intentions in detail, then, given us step by step descriptions of the strategy and tactics he will use so we wouldn't be surprised and confused about how this repeatedly works to accelerate things along toward a predefined goal.

If only...

/s

 

[Zero CO2]

Multiple shareholder who doesn't kiss the ground Elon walks on is now considered a troll. Sad!

Big shouts to the uber bulls who can actually discuss and debate their position with facts rather than plugging their head in the sand and using the ignore button to avoid questions that make them uncomfortable.

my point was more about you non stop posting of out of context snippets to sow FUD ... you are fooling yourself if you think you are presenting facts

 

[Zero CO2]

This thread mimics the mood surrounding Tesla. When the stock was rising like a Falcon 9 rocket this was place was party. Now a little adversity and uncertainty and some posters want to quit. Then quit.

Or

Follow the example of the remaining Tesla workers and engineers who do their jobs assembling world-class cars despite going through two weeks of adversity and uncertainty and lost colleagues. They did and do not quit.

not quitting just pointing out the lack of oversight and constant S#$t posting by a few that claim to be spitting facts ...

 

[Drax7]

Darky,

Multiple shareholder who doesn't kiss the ground Elon walks on is now considered a troll. Sad!

Big shouts to the uber bulls who can actually discuss and debate their position with facts rather than plugging their head in the sand and using the ignore button to avoid questions that make them uncomfortable.

how are you voting your shares?
Who pays you for spreading FUD?

 

[blckdmp]

No one who follows Elon should be surprised by his method of letting people go and subsequently rehiring some.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790055817737044393

Agreed, but it's possible that real living breathing people with families and mortgages and such should be treated differently than "parts and processes".

 

[Musskiah]

He’s not really wired to manage people.

Successful results disagree with your opinion. Can you even name another person in the modern world who has simultaneously grown, from start-up, two of the most hypergrowth companies in the history of mankind in some of the most difficult industries to compete in? This doesn't happen in the absence of worthy management.

It’s not the sort of exact science that implies.

It's messy with people because feelings are involved, but the scientific principle is the same with people as it is with things. When the larger entity is in homeostasis, delete the people (or things) that are deemed to be excessive and see how the system operates without. Then add back in a person (or thing) as needed until the system operates as desired. Functionally, you have created a more efficient system. Sure, it's not "exact" but it works. Elon has proven it works time and again. You may not agree with his style, and it may not be the only way to do things, but it works.

 

[durkie]

Darky,

how are you voting your shares?
Who pays you for spreading FUD?

Don't do this.

 

[advocate8]

Successful results disagree with your opinion. Can you even name another person in the modern world who has simultaneously grown, from start-up, two of the most hypergrowth companies in the history of mankind in some of the most difficult industries to compete in? This doesn't happen in the absence of worthy management.

It's messy with people because feelings are involved, but the scientific principle is the same with people as it is with things. When the larger entity is in homeostasis, delete the people (or things) that are deemed to be excessive and see how the system operates without. Then add back in a person (or thing) as needed until the system operates as desired. Functionally, you have created a more efficient system. Sure, it's not "exact" but it works. Elon has proven it works time and again. You may not agree with his style, and it may not be the only way to do things, but it works.

The companies are young still and have grown quickly. I think we are coming up against the organizational maturity/size limits of what such methods can do. Running a few dozen or a few hundred people is a different thing entirely from running something so large. And corporate culture is something to design and tend carefully, not ignore.
But yes, you have valid points. It will take a few more years for the dust to clear on this.

 

[unk45]

Firing then rehiring probably has side effects, such as cancelling outstanding incentives like options, RSUs, ESPP plans, whatever. If this was part of the calculation, it's pretty evil.

While we do not know, I would be astonished were the people being rehired prior to their actual departure would lose anything from the prior employment. I would be surprised and disappointed were those rehired not have all their former benefits restored.

If any of that has actually happened I'm sure we'll hear howls of dismay quite soon.

 

[unk45]

I don’t recall any of the other companies I have invested in paying money to advertise an upcoming shareholder vote. Has anyone else ever seen that? This is a weird move.

Methodologies differ. Nearly all public companies with wide distribution have campaigns to support major corporate actions. Most widely held companies that do not have majority insider holdings have campaigns required to obtain majority shareholder vote for anything.

 

[GatorMeat]

How is that a fair argument for you?
The point is that Elon delivered what was in the agreement, and any right-minded person honors an agreement, even if things outside of that agreement (e.g. things that happen AFTER the timeframe) don't go exactly according to their wishes.

It was a 10-year contract. We are six years in. Does Tesla still meet the market cap, revenue, and income metrics?
Did we know at the time of the contract that Elon would sell out 1,000x what he put in and crash the stock, while saying repeatedly he would be the 'last one out'?
Did Elon tell us he would go on to be a part time CEO half way through the 10-year contract while he ran another completely unrelated company that he bought with his TSLA winnings?
Would any other CEO get away with the last several years and still be employed?
Why is Tesla, who has been 100% against advertising, now paying to advertise to vote for the $56B plan, and the move to Texas, of which no where do they publish the huge amount of annual taxes to Texas this will cost shareholders?

 

[Chartered321]

Paid EUR 75 to vote, but I guess for 1'295'000 shares it was worth it...

 

[Linkmeup]

Well, all my custom Google searches around FSD, Restaurant, and Las Vegas Loop are basically non-existent or full or trash results over the past 2 weeks.

No one's reporting on the latter two. For FSD, its just a ton of hearsay, rumors, and crapola.

 

[Doggydogworld]

So Tesla is expecting ~ 25 GWh delivered this year, even though their Megapack production rate is ~20 GWh annualized right now.

It's not clear they make all Megapacks in Lathrop. Why ship heavy LFP cells across the Pacific, put them in containers then ship them back across the Pacific to Australia or China or wherever? Plenty of shops in Asia will assemble to spec.

I figure Powerwalls are steady around 2 GWh/year. Your quote said Lathrop would end the year at a 40 GWh run rate, so factor in that ramp:

Q2 - 5 GWh + 0.5 GWh Powerwall
Q3 - 6.5 GWh + 0.5 GWh Powerwall
Q4 - 8 GWh + 0.5 GWh Powerwall

Total Q2-Q4 = 21 GWh
Plus Q1 = 4 GWh
Total 2024 = 25 GWh

Plus whatever they built in Asia, per my theory.

 

[unk45]

He’s not really wired to manage people. It’s not the sort of exact science that implies.

There really is no such thing as an "exact science". Check out Heisenberg:

The Uncertainty Principle (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Science, by definition is as precise as humans can make it be, but still it is not absolute.
Almost everyone does not understand that, even though every Physics course should and usually does explain that.
Were it to have been exact, matter would be exact. The universe would not be constantly changing.

Elon is 'wired' for continuous improvement, he deeply understand the universe and physics end out being, as far as we know, probabilistic.

Here is the quintessential example, at least in historical context:

Schrodinger's Cat (Simplified): What Is It & Why Is It Important?

Schrödinger's cat is one of the most famous thought experiments ever devised. He suggested that if quantum mechanical states are described as superpositions of multiple different states, what if this superposition was transferred to a macroscopic object, like a cat? Could it be both alive and dead?

sciencing.com

None of that explains why Elon's practice is to guess the best solution at all times, after using everything one can immediately know. Then, correct the mistakes one has made when fining better information.

That describes the Scientific Method which Elon uses in everything. He calls it First Principles, since that sounds less obscure to non-scientists.:
Brittanica has a decent explanation:

Scientific method | Definition, Steps, & Application

Scientific method, mathematical and experimental technique employed in the sciences. More specifically, it is the technique used in the construction and testing of a scientific hypothesis. The scientific method is applied broadly across the sciences.

www.britannica.com

In short, science is empirical, it is also probabilistic.

I belabor that because so many of us seem to think that science does not work in social context. It does!

Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series shows where science could go in social context...and he was a scientist as well as a prolific writer. Elon read it all and studied.

 

[2daMoon]

The companies are young still and have grown quickly. I think we are coming up against the organizational maturity/size limits of what much methods can do. Running a few dozen or a few hundred people is a different thing entirely from running something so large.

The biggest impediment to this level of growth is propagating the mindset of Elon to his subordinates. Generally, people make decisions that weigh to some degree upon emotion, rather than strategy. Much like investing is undermined by emotion interfering with strategy, it is challenging to encourage people who are not "on the spectrum" to isolate their emotions from the process.

This is likely what causes issues like we saw with the Supercharger Expansion Team.

Elon is dependent upon others, simply because you can only spread yourself so thin. Though Tesla's use of an AI app for employees that helps coordinate all aspects of operations, communications, and planning between groups and individuals very likely helps immensely.

I expect that as more AI and robotics are deployed there can be improvement at an exponential pace. This contributes significantly to aspects of the pivot towards a greater focus on AI and robotics being so very, very important to Tesla's continued growth and success.

This is something those who only see FSD improvements as the goal might be missing when they voice concerns over what seems to them a pivot that abandons the existing operations. This pivot will offer boons to every corner of Tesla.

And corporate culture is something to design and tend carefully, not ignore.
But yes, you have valid points. It will take a few more years for the dust to clear on this.

What if people holding a mindset as you demonstrate are unable to weigh such views against the long-term success of this corporate culture and the results that it has netted for Tesla, both up to now, and into the future?

Being able to envision doing things differently is a bonus for Tesla because it brings positive results faster than the methods being touted as if they offer some advantage.

This elusive advantage you allude to for some ideal corporate culture is one that does not reveal itself as being as successful over time when compared to the progress Tesla has achieved with their style of management, now being expanded upon with AI and robotics.

Welcome our AI overlords, as this corporate culture will inspire productive employees to meaningful greatness while simultaneously and quickly migrating non-productive employees to find work somewhere else, perhaps in a corporate culture more akin to the one you describe.