One could conclude softening EV demand without the appropriate facts. Allow me to provide them:
The cumulative U.S. inventory (see below) is similar to peak inventory throughout Q323 and Q423. MX inventory has improved, as well as M3. MY demand is soft, yes, which is exemplified by the deep MY discounts in the
US only. The demand for the other three models seem to be as good or better than with recent historical trends. Blanket statements like "EV demand is soft" misses the point I have just articulated, because it is not wholly true. This is also true of Q223 (not pictured) which looks similar to 2023-07-14 below, where M3 MX and MS all remain stable. Of course, as M3 Highland ramps, we should watch this chart to ensure the refresh continues to draw demand.
The point is this: we are talking 6000MY inventory vehicles in the US being discounted $5-7k. We are talking a $32-42M maximum possible discount. This is like 1.5% of all Teslas that will be sold in Q2. These discounts are a rounding error (especially in light of Energy Revenue explosion which will eclipse thes discounts [pun intended Eclipse Day]). If these levels remain stable, within just a couple quarters, Austin and Fremont lines have to go down in quick succession to retool for Juniper, while concurrently interest rates drop - this should solve the temporary build up in MY inventory over the long run. Also, Tesla will want substantial MY inventory going into the MY refresh.
Lastly, remember Tesla has stated time and again that they WANT to maintain inventory to flatten the wave. I think we can see below inventories become less wave-like.
I open the floor for those who want to kill my hopium vibe. J/K I love the banter. Thanks everyone sincerely for the counter arguments. The healthy back-and-forth discussion is what I love about this place!
CUMULATIVE US INVENTORY 4/23-PRESENT
View attachment 1036805
Europe is hardly out of the ordinary, well within historical norms, hence no deep MY discounts. My concern would be M3 refresh isn't taking hold if M3 inventories continue to rise.
CUMULATIVE EUROPEAN INV 4/23-PRES
View attachment 1036816
CHINA LESS THAN 500 CUMULATIVE. ITS NORMAL, SO I DIDNT SHOW IT.
SOURCE:
Tesla New Inventory Counts, aggregated at a Europe level