B
betstarship
Guest
Some historical charts on deliveries:
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
I’ve seen the phrase before, but never a clear explanation of what it might mean exactly.
Why do you say “Slight” ramp at Austin and Berlin? We’re at 2,000 - 3,000 cars perJust occurred to me that the capex for next year would be minimial for the s3xy lines as current production capacity with a slight ramp at Austin and Berlin will get Tesla to 40-45% growth. Additional growth needs to come from cybertruck, semi, etc., but the numbers have to be huge to make a material difference to the P&D growth targets.
To have cybertruck take the growth in deliveries from 40% to 50%, we need 130k of them which is higher than what's possible in 2023 I think.
Ok… then Cybertruck is on it’s own roadmap or the Gen 3 vehicle is to be a cousin to it."Generation 3" is the phrase used to refer to the "$25K car compact car" first discussed at the June 2018 AGM. The term also now includes variants based on the same chasis, likely a small SUV, perhaps a tradesvan van, or a robotaxi.
It's likely to be the 1st car produced at the new Mexico plant, and I'm sure that China and Europe will have their own production plants too for this next series of Tesla mass market cars.
The goal is clear, twice the volume, half the price. Toyota Corolla, be warned.
Cheers!
"Generation 3" is the phrase used to refer to the "$25K car compact car" first discussed at the June 2018 AGM. The term also now includes variants based on the same chasis, likely a small SUV, perhaps a tradesvan van, or a robotaxi.
It's likely to be the 1st car produced at the new Mexico plant, and I'm sure that China and Europe will have their own production plants too for this next series of Tesla mass market cars.
The goal is clear, twice the volume, half the price. Toyota Corolla, be warned.
Cheers!
Seems to me if Austin and Berlin go from 3000/week to 5000/week in the near term (as I understood their 2022 goal to be), this would add ~208K of production to the year. So even if Fremont and Shanghai maintains current production, that would still get them to just under 2M in 2023 (hitting the 50%) without CT or Semi numbers.Just occurred to me that the capex for next year would be minimial for the s3xy lines as current production capacity with a slight ramp at Austin and Berlin will get Tesla to 40-45% growth. Additional growth needs to come from cybertruck, semi, etc., but the numbers have to be huge to make a material difference to the P&D growth targets.
To have cybertruck take the growth in deliveries from 40% to 50%, we need 130k of them which is higher than what's possible in 2023 I think.
Q4 earnings call is a giant tinderbox right now. It’s very likely to cause either a huge run up or deepen and extend the trough a bit.I just hope the stock continues to stay low at least until February 28 (the day I get my bonus)
The nice thing about 2022 prices being so high is it got Tesla over the hump at Giga Texas. At this point, the COGS on Texas made cars should be declining every quarter as units produced continues to climb.Prices of vehicles will get reduced. Don't be surprised by it, Elon said it in 2022 that current vehicle prices were, "embarrassingly high"
I personally have no doubt Tesla will move all the vehicles but fully expect more price cuts (or the equivalent) to move them in 2023 -- the Fed is not taking their foot off the brake until prices come down, and a wise man once advised against fighting the Fed.
The discounts in Q4 here were just the first phase, more will be required to unlock new layers of demand as interest rates continue up and then the Fed holds -- we need more production, more cost efficiencies, and lower prices for consumers.
Agreed. Headlines seem pretty positive overall."Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year"
CNBC headline from just now. Article actually pretty much just telling it how it is. A bit surprising they didn't stick the knife in and twist it. I'm somewhat impressed.
You can go find the link yourself. You're welcome!
edit; Ninja'd by @traxila
Agreed. Headlines seem pretty positive overall.
I think all the "negative" sentiment was already baked into the current SP. Feel like we are ready for a decent run all things considered.
Especially Corolla nowadays selling upwards of $25k, that's not the corolla I'm expecting 10 years ago
View attachment 891488
Austin and Berlin have already hit 3k per week or 12k per month run rate per various reports. The name plate capacity is probably closer to a combined 400k per year at this point. For these 2 factories.Why do you say “Slight” ramp at Austin and Berlin? We’re at 2,000 - 3,000 cars per month. Tesla has been talking about production hitting 5,000 and 10,000 cars per month at Berlin and Texas respectively. That’s Model Y production, not including Cybertruck. I think that’s where the lions share of growth is likely.
I seriously doubt we’ll see more than 20,000 Cybertrucks in 2023.
Actually can someone do the math? I think in order to have a constant rate of incoming stock of cars without a wave, you DO need 50% of cars in transit at all times.Emphasis on "Hypothetical "
View attachment 891465