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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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During my own lifetime there are been episodes of mass hysteria, none of which actually needed conspiracy, only ignorance and fear of the unknown.
Here are TMC we have tended to be a rational bunch, biased in favor of our passion, to be sure.
Recently we've tended a trifle towards conspiracy visions to justify negative views of TSLA.
We need no conspiracies to understand these views:
1. Auto dealers cannot be expected to be favorably disposed towards a company that does not use them;
2. Petroleum companies might not favor entities which are devoted to excluding use of fossil fuels.
3. Can anybody imagine why an operator of a gasoline vendor would favor an entity that seeks their demise?
4. Should union leaders and advocates favor entities that do not have unionized workforces?
5. Why should rating agencies favor a company that does not issue new ratable securities?
6. Why would investment bankers favor entity that does not regularly issue new securities of any kind?
..and this list goes on.

No conspiracies required. All these and more are entities that are threatened directly by the business model and plans of an entity that thrives by unsetting the status quo.

We really should stop imagining coordinated action and simply understand that many parts of the commercial world are threatened by greater or lesser extent by Tesla, SpaceX and what they represent. They need not coordinate for their common interests are obvious to all of them.

It is transparently obvious that the massive TSLA derivatives are a successful attempt to make money when conventional means will not work. Gullible, ignorant and/or greedy speculators greatly ease their efforts. Importantly institutional investors can 'innocently' engage in securities lending that lets them reduce carrying costs from non-dividend-paying security while incurring little risk.

SO, what do they need to conspire? Obviously, they do not. It's less risky to just understand their shared interests.

Every time we berate volatility, understated that volatility keeps the whole marker thriving, for the major players.
Retail ones can never thrive in this environment, if they try to play the market makers.

OK, throw brickbats! Please, please think!
I don't know how you define conspire, but, looking at my dictionary conspire means: "To be in harmony; to plan secretly an unlawful act; plot."

Now, if we assume that our language is a shared heritage, and in order for it to work we must agree on basic definitions, I will state for the record that I try to use conspire in common everyday language as how my dictionary defines it above.

Example: Curt Renz has shared a video of Jim Cramer telling an interviewer that when he ran a hedge fund, he would at times call up friends at CNBC and tell them to run this or that story to move share prices around that were advantageous to Jim's hedge fund. I ask you, is this not conspiring? It is to me. It is an anti-competitive, presumably unlawful, game for money making. What do you call this?

Another example. When GM exec Bob Lutz would come on the business news and talk crap about Tesla or EVs, would you not consider this conspiring, since both GM and the media outlet gain from the act? GM gets to spread FUD against a competitor on nationwide TV, the news outlet gets paid by GM in advertising dollars. They both win by working together. This in my mind is conspiring.

How about when President Biden gets up on a national stage and tells Mary Barra she led in the EV revolution? Seems to me like conspiracy: Biden gets to signal to his base that he cares about climate change and union jobs, GM gets the positive exposure they deserve since they donated money to Biden's presidential campaign. They both benefit from working in harmony. How is this not conspiracy?

Our presidential elections here in the U.S. are now over a billion dollars each election cycle. Do you mean to say all these powerful, wealthy donors/bribers don't get something in return from paying off politicians? It seems naive to me to think otherwise.

We conspire at all levels of society: grandchildren can conspire to get the grandparents money when they die; big companies have a long history of conspiring to fix prices and engage in anti-competitive practices, that's why we have anti-trust laws; universities pull funding from research labs when those labs find incriminating evidence that a major university donor has been polluting the environment (I know this from personal experience). There is conspiracy everywhere, all around us. I myself have conspired with others to get what I want because it has benefited me financially. I don't know what you've got against conspiracy, but denying it exists doesn't make it go away.

So again, I ask you: how do you define "conspiracy"?
 
That research report is exactly the type of example of someone that is from the old economy/stock market that fundamentally doesn't understand the market today or the dynamics. As expected, he uses exaggerations to create the fear while completely ignoring the underlining basics of what has been happening over the past 10 years.
You seem to be confirming what he said.
 
His first mistake was calling what he did "investing".
"Speculation" and "Investment" are different words.
Dealing in derivatives is not "Investment" although investors and businesses do use those instruments.
"Hedging" is a logical use of derivatives. Betting on derivatives is not "investment".
Those who see no parallels to, say, 2008 very clearly do not know what happened in 2008.
TSLA is THE prime target for speculation by securities market participants in 2022. That is documented fact, not hyperbole.
 
I don't know how you define conspire, but, looking at my dictionary conspire means: "To be in harmony; to plan secretly an unlawful act; plot."

Now, if we assume that our language is a shared heritage, and in order for it to work we must agree on basic definitions, I will state for the record that I try to use conspire in common everyday language as how my dictionary defines it above.

Example: Curt Renz has shared a video of Jim Cramer telling an interviewer that when he ran a hedge fund, he would at times call up friends at CNBC and tell them to run this or that story to move share prices around that were advantageous to Jim's hedge fund. I ask you, is this not conspiring? It is to me. It is an anti-competitive, presumably unlawful, game for money making. What do you call this?

Another example. When GM exec Bob Lutz would come on the business news and talk crap about Tesla or EVs, would you not consider this conspiring, since both GM and the media outlet gain from the act? GM gets to spread FUD against a competitor on nationwide TV, the news outlet gets paid by GM in advertising dollars. They both win by working together. This in my mind is conspiring.

How about when President Biden gets up on a national stage and tells Mary Barra she led in the EV revolution? Seems to me like conspiracy: Biden gets to signal to his base that he cares about climate change and union jobs, GM gets the positive exposure they deserve since they donated money to Biden's presidential campaign. They both benefit from working in harmony. How is this not conspiracy?

Our presidential elections here in the U.S. are now over a billion dollars each election cycle. Do you mean to say all these powerful, wealthy donors/bribers don't get something in return from paying off politicians? It seems naive to me to think otherwise.

We conspire at all levels of society: grandchildren can conspire to get the grandparents money when they die; big companies have a long history of conspiring to fix prices and engage in anti-competitive practices, that's why we have anti-trust laws; universities pull funding from research labs when those labs find incriminating evidence that a major university donor has been polluting the environment (I know this from personal experience). There is conspiracy everywhere, all around us. I myself have conspired with others to get what I want because it has benefited me financially. I don't know what you've got against conspiracy, but denying it exists doesn't make it go away.

So again, I ask you: how do you define "conspiracy"?
We are not in disagreement, amazing though that may seem. I do not suggest that 'conspiracy' is not taking place, whether legally definable as such or not. However, I do think one does not need to see conspiracy to understand how various parties are motivated. In point of fact, almost all illegal conspiracies proven to be such begin with shared objectives that the aperies cannot achieve by legal means. In the TSLA case I think it unlikely that much actual conspiracy has taken place. Some has certainly been happening. Current SEC and Justice priorities cause me to think it is highly unlikely any of these will ever be proven.

This will go OT quickly, but the TSLA price volatility stems from shared goals of numerous parties whether they do or do not commit illegal acts to achieve their goals.
 
A couple of posts over the week mentioned estimates of just how massive the options market value is that expired Friday:
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates about $3.3 trillion of U.S. equity derivatives are set to expire Friday."

This is “notional value” , as opposed to market value, so mostly meaningless. One options contract of TSLA has a notional value of 100 x $1000 (if stock price is $1000 a share, even if it’s a far out of the money option that was purchased at $1 each. That’s how the media valued Michael Burry’s TSLA puts at $500 million.

It’s important we understand if the options market is driving the stock price, but notional value does not tell us much.
 
OH NO, They are taking the cars away !

1642882826635.png


SEE ( AT 13 minutes)


Where are they taking them ?
Are they all going to good homes ?
 
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I don't know how you define conspire, but, looking at my dictionary conspire means: "To be in harmony; to plan secretly an unlawful act; plot."

Now, if we assume that our language is a shared heritage, and in order for it to work we must agree on basic definitions, I will state for the record that I try to use conspire in common everyday language as how my dictionary defines it above.

Example: Curt Renz has shared a video of Jim Cramer telling an interviewer that when he ran a hedge fund, he would at times call up friends at CNBC and tell them to run this or that story to move share prices around that were advantageous to Jim's hedge fund. I ask you, is this not conspiring? It is to me. It is an anti-competitive, presumably unlawful, game for money making. What do you call this?

Another example. When GM exec Bob Lutz would come on the business news and talk crap about Tesla or EVs, would you not consider this conspiring, since both GM and the media outlet gain from the act? GM gets to spread FUD against a competitor on nationwide TV, the news outlet gets paid by GM in advertising dollars. They both win by working together. This in my mind is conspiring.

How about when President Biden gets up on a national stage and tells Mary Barra she led in the EV revolution? Seems to me like conspiracy: Biden gets to signal to his base that he cares about climate change and union jobs, GM gets the positive exposure they deserve since they donated money to Biden's presidential campaign. They both benefit from working in harmony. How is this not conspiracy?

Our presidential elections here in the U.S. are now over a billion dollars each election cycle. Do you mean to say all these powerful, wealthy donors/bribers don't get something in return from paying off politicians? It seems naive to me to think otherwise.

We conspire at all levels of society: grandchildren can conspire to get the grandparents money when they die; big companies have a long history of conspiring to fix prices and engage in anti-competitive practices, that's why we have anti-trust laws; universities pull funding from research labs when those labs find incriminating evidence that a major university donor has been polluting the environment (I know this from personal experience). There is conspiracy everywhere, all around us. I myself have conspired with others to get what I want because it has benefited me financially. I don't know what you've got against conspiracy, but denying it exists doesn't make it go away.

So again, I ask you: how do you define "conspiracy"?
When everything is a conspiracy, nothing is. It's just the cost of doing business. If you're merely saying that this civilization has become a corporate kleptocracy, then you're correct. But nature has a habit of finding a way to correct such issues. We'll either figure out how to stop ourselves from making our only planet uninhabitable by our species, or we will go extinct. Nature always finds a way. Good luck to us.
 
You’re assuming the public’s capacity for massive rent-seeking by giant tech monopolies is infinite. Public opinion on these tech monopolies has been dropping precipitously…. And don’t kid yourself, most of the margin increase from Facebook, Google and Apple is pure monopoly rent.

The probability that the current party loses and the next one decides to Teddy Roosevelt on big tech is growing rapidly IMHO.

And there is lots of evidence the economy is slowing. It’s inevitable if the fed can’t get inflation under control and real wages continue to drop.

Also, profits as a share of GDP have a strong inverse correlation with rates. Compare that chart to the fed funds rate chart
It is not rent-seeking if there is a valid market-based reason for the monopoly to exist.
The valid reason for most newtech, that distinguishes itself from oldtech, is the existence of very strong network effects.
Combine that with the low marginal costs of most newtech as well as the scale benefits and it can be thought of as a valid explanation of those high profits, only for winners.

That is not to say that it will not - and already has - drawn political attention: most notably the Netscape & Microsoft wars.

More generally it seems that we are moving towards a landscape of highly asymmetrical outcomes, both at individual levels and at corporate levels.
And national ones.
Across pretty much all economic areas.
Many losers running hard to stay still, few winners. But such huge winners.

You can see the battle lines already being drawn in EV space.
China is eviscerating USA automotive without ever firing a shot in the ICE round.
Tesla have already boxed clever in this by being dominant in three continents before folk have even realised it is practically game over.
(and it will be four - or five - continents before too long)
And by pushing every network-centric button that Silly Valley recognises.
(including many that have yet to come to fruition)

So yes politics will of course intrude.
But because it will not only be US politics, it will be moderated by fear.
 
The economy is slowing because inflation is biting into consumer purchasing power.

In order to fight inflation, the fed is going to have to raise rates, which will also likely slow the economy.

It the same thing that happened in the 70s and then the 80s, only on a much smaller and less severe scale. 70s stagflation led to the early 80s recession.

It’s a good thing the fed is doing it now rather than later, as the medicine would become more painful.

Note, I’m not expecting a giant crash and a collapse, but think a slowdown and a pullback (perhaps as high as 30%) is highly likely, then it will be back to business… that some of you think any type of slowdown ever is utterly impossible is odd to me and shows a lack of historical context.
I think the fear about stagflation is a little overblown. Yes, there were some signs of stagflation if unemployment rates were not under controlled as we see inflation due to supply chain issues. However one of the key ingredients to stagflation is high unemployment rates and currently we are at an all time low.

Now, one thing I do want to bring up is that the current equity market did lead to many people with 401k/IRAs to an early retirement, as well as many young folks who yoloed/got lucky the past two years in the market. I am hoping this work itself out and it's not some kind of mass exit, or it's a lot less than I think it is.
 
I thought a lot about some 900C that I had bought months back for $29, and decided to take delivery of the shares yesterday.

The macro situation gave me some pause, and seeing as the calls were profitable, I could have just cashed them out.

Though I posted about this in the other thread, I thought with all the macro goings on it might worthwhile having another perspective here also. Not saying it is the right one; and it is most certainly not advice, but it serves as another data point / opinion for fellow TMC'ers to consider - should they wish to.

I thought about the company, and it's leadership. I thought about it's efficiency, and what the future looks like for it, and on balance, I took the plunge. I haven't managed to buy a bottom yet, and remain a HODL'er since buying my first Tesla shares.

Not everyone posts about their trials and tribulations here. I try to remember that there are real humans behind each of these TMC avatars, with real struggles, and challenges, ups and downs. This macro environment may challenge some, or add to to their current life burdens. I hope you are all taking care of the most important piece of wealth that we all should HODL even more than TSLA; and that is your health. Mental and Physical.

if you can, try to go for a walk / hit a gym, eat a healthier meal, or go talk to someone if life is weighing on you.

May your prosperity include you staying strong, safe, healthy and happy.
 

crash is coming.

If you google Jeremy Grantham related news from 2001 to 2021, you will see that he calls for megabubble and megacrash EVERY TIME lol. He's been a right a few times and wrong most of the time.
 
I am trying to understand that article.

According to the article

1. House is in a bubble
2. Equity market is in a bubble
3. Energy is in a bubble
4. Bonds are in a bubble
5. High inflation so cash is trash
6. Commodities are in a bubble

If everything is in a bubble then there is no bubble. It's kind of how things work. There's nothing to flee to. Covid as of today have continued to trash value company earnings except perhaps those involved in home construction.
But...but..the picture of the old dude author ....he looks so serious!
 
If you google Jeremy Grantham related news from 2001 to 2021, you will see that he calls for megabubble and megacrash EVERY TIME lol. He's been a right a few times and wrong most of the time.
Yeah playing the doom and gloom game requires you to be very lucky as the entire market bias toward the upside vs the downside. This is why pension funds, retirement funds, endowment funds, and every investment class you can think of is tied to the market as long term hold for the upside it creates and never the downside. For the broader market, even with a correction or crash, the chance of recovery is 100%. There's never in the history of the market where the Dow and Nasdaq hit 0 so there's really zero point shorting/talking about market crashes unless you are a gambler.

The phrase "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is only meant for short sellers while long term investors sleep well at night. Check out Proshares Short S&P 500. Since inception it has lost 90% of it's value. You may get some of those upticks in there if you want to gamble but what is the point...in the long run it goes down to zero.
 
The day to day, hour to hour, minutiae obsessionon with the TSLA share price here on TMC is discouraging, the chaff. Yet I keep coming back to TMC for the wheat, the informative and compelling posts by many here on why Tesla is a keeper and deserves our investment. Thank you for those that don't post the TSLA price in German market opening, pre-market, % increase/decrease throughout the day, market close, and post-market. We all know where to find these and this would cut down on 50% of the posts making this thread far more manageable. I remember when I could read through this thread daily in 10 minutes.

I'm into my forth year as a Tesla Model 3 owner and today, for only the 2nd time, I had range anxiety. Not having plugged in my garage for a couple of weeks, I did not notice until I was out for a drive today far from home that I had 25km range left. I asked my Tesla to "Navigate to nearest SuperCharger Station" and was directed to one 19km away that showed 4 charges available, 1 charger not working and 15 chargers in active use. So off I go, travelling at 110km/hr hwy driving, with outdoor temp of -4 degrees Celcius and I arrived with 1km remaining. I have no idea how long my Tesla will drive once down to zero km however glad I did not have to find out. I arrive at the SuperCharger fully knowing that I have working chargers availalble, plug and play simplicity, very fast and reliable charging, and a safe environment with other like-minded Tesla owners. A relaxing 15 minutes later I left with 192km of charge and was off to the races, all for $7.68 CAD (while Regular gas is $1.49/litre CAD and Premium gas is $1.74/litre CAD). Tesla's SuperCharger Network is vastly underrated. Tesla's SuperCharger Network is an absolutely brilliant move and sets itself vastly apart from all the other EV manufacturers and their customers whom have to suffer through the vast uncertainly of spontaneous, hit and miss, charging far from home. There really is no competition. Period. Yes, Tesla deserves my investment. Thank you Tesla.

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