Not likely 4680s for TE/Megapack. Those will likely be CATL LFP, at half the price per KWh, and 5x the lifetime, but with equal power ratings. LFP is the ideal chemistry for TE stationary products, and the last of the LFP patents in N. America come off in April 2022.
TSLA may eventually make their own LFP 4680s, but that will be years down the road, AND likely only if there is insufficient price competition in the market for LFP cells. Right now, that doesn't look like it's going to be a problem, and Tesla needs all the nickel it can get for it's long range vehicle products, and for giga-castings (nickel is a component of Tesla's special alloy used for the giga-press)
Cheers!
There is still another strong possibility. CATL could produce 4680's and packs at their new factory adjacent to GigaShanghai.
I will be surprised if they do NOT do that. Probably most of the benefits of the Tesla 4680 tablets design accrue regardless of chemistry.
Specifically, improved heat dissipation, less internal resistance, more robust physical structure, higher charge rates.
Then CATL does a significant volume of cell-to-pack now. Given the current high collaboration between CATL and Tesla It seems obvious that with
CATL 4680-to-pack the assembly line for Tesla will be more efficient because there will be a single structural pack, eliminating assembly complexity.
I am not predicting that. I am not qualified to do anything like that. I simply observe the radical simplification in vehicle assembly already evident with GigaPresses as a stellar example. Why would they NOT have structural packs in identical physical dimensions to accommodate any battery chemistry at all?
Just imagine such an approach in cost terms. Then think about electrical, BMS, and assembly cost savings with commensurate improved quality control.
It seems to me we are desperately trying to preserve historical norms while ignoring First Principles. There is no logical reason to have multiple from factors once there is sufficient supply. Remember there will be Fremont, Gruneheide, Austin, Sparks, Shanghai and CATL Shanghai within the next year or so. Will those have different form factors? Probably the legacy Sparks lines may continue, but they'll change too. We already have intimations that CATL, LG and Panasonic are testing 4680 solutions, so all the major suppliers will change as Tesla model evolution continues.
Anyone caring to make a wager that by 2023 we'll see all Tesla models with 4680's? Logically TE will be there too, maybe even simultaneously.
Obviously pouches will continue for the ICE designers who adore the ease of putting them in former exhaust, transmission and engine bays. LG, SK etc will still provide them. Every manufacturer will be happy to set up to support Tesla specifications, probably even Northvolt and other new ones will do that if they can.