Paracelsus
Active Member
TSLA share price once again putting pressure on the Old Paradigm to find new FUD opportunities.......
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I was reading about this effect, do they all pull back quickly? Is that why you mention volume... an indicator of the Gamma engine?We in 'gamma-squeeze' territory today, and wiff good vol.
Cheers!
There is more to it. Consider how current market penetration of BEVs to total autos is only 2%. (hint: the market to consider is all autos, not just BEVs, and certainly not just Tesla models)Not about the short term. About the long term value of the stock. The basic idea these Qs are saying is that Tesla cant sell the volume of cars we believe they will because Y cuts 3 sales. Not that some people choose Y over 3, but because they do in such massive number that 3 sales wont continue to increase. Then when 2 comes around all it will do is cut 3 and Y sales even more for a lower margin lower profit vehicle.
I was reading about this effect, do they all pull back quickly? Is that why you mention volume... an indicator of the Gamma engine?
"The stock ultimately keeps climbing until it crashes, and what makes it even more dangerous is that usually, the fall is much faster than the climb."
What’s riskier than a short squeeze? Meet the gamma squeeze | Venture
The perfect condition for a squeeze is when there’s a ton of buzz being made about where a stock’s price could be heading.dailyhive.com
That is my belief as well. Unfortunately me just saying it to others doesnt provide something to hang my hat on. Looks like just will need to point out Q after Q that the so called cannibalization as they see it simply isnt happening.There is more to it. Consider how current market penetration of BEVs to total autos is only 2%. (hint: the market to consider is all autos, not just BEVs, and certainly not just Tesla models)
There is lots of room for all Tesla models' sales to increase into a declining ICE market, as well as a host of other BEVs. Once this is added into your analysis it should demonstrate how the thing you are concerned about is trivial in the bigger scheme of things.
Buyers aren't limited in any way to only deciding whether to get a 3 or a Y or a 2. They are deciding which BEV to get instead of buying another ICE car. Because of this, as long as Tesla is unable to build them as fast as they can sell them, there won't be any significant impact across the Tesla model line like you describe.
Not about the short term. About the long term value of the stock. The basic idea these Qs are saying is that Tesla cant sell the volume of cars we believe they will because Y cuts 3 sales. Not that some people choose Y over 3, but because they do in such massive number that 3 sales wont continue to increase. Then when 2 comes around all it will do is cut 3 and Y sales even more for a lower margin lower profit vehicle.
You either want a sedan or you want a small SUV. The cannibalization argument is straight out of bear fantasies.That is my belief as well. Unfortunately me just saying it to others doesnt provide something to hang my hat on. Looks like just will need to point out Q after Q that the so called cannibalization as they see it simply isnt happening.
Did she cop this attitude yet?Just an update on the wife's delivery of the MYP....last week it showed a date of Aug 23- Sep 22....logged in today and now it shows 7-9 weeks. DEMAND PROBLEM!
OT reply: Yes, very happy no injuries at all. I can't publish his real first name so I called him "Idiot" as in "village idiot" because he pissed me off. It could have been worse like fracface lol.OT : not sure why you call the guy an idiot. Accidents happen. Good thing you and him and his kids are fine.
I'll take 720 over 650 anyday!Loving the price action but can we go one week without it being blatantly obvious based on the weekly call expiration where the stock will be tried to held down???
Tractor beam right back to 720 every time it tries to break higher. I hope there's some surprise news later this week that's blows up the MM's this week. Never in all my investing years have I see a stock's trading be so consistently obvious where a stock get's pinned to on a weekly basis based on the options.
These Chinese/etc cars are perfectly licencable in the EU with very few tweaks required. Most of them would fit in the L6 category, some in the M category. Depending on which category the regulations vary. Motorway access will depend on which category, that was one reason why the original Smart design changed so much between concept and launch. Good examples of the higher end of this range are the Fiat 500, the Toyota Aygo (aka Citroën C1 and Peugeot 107/108), or for that matter the SmartForTwo, all of which have everything you are suggesting are absent. Just watch the Chinese improve their product designs to comparable levels, the pace of change is very fast indeed.My obvious point is that these tiny cars, many selling for less than $5,000, cars that cannot even go 60 mph (many don't even have heaters) make up nearly half of the EV statistics and yet would not even be licensable in the US or Europe. It's a completely different market/product. When comparing market share it hardly makes sense to compare vehicles with an average selling price of $5K or less with vehicles that average nearly 50K. That means it takes 10 mini-cars to make up one EV that can sell in Europe or the US.
This has nothing to do with cultural bias and everything to do with using business market share statistics in a meaningful way. I'm disappointed that you went in the weeds with a charge of cultural bias. The tiny cars deserve a category of their own!
No heated defrosters, no airbags, no crash standards...
Excellent reminder. Not everybody is supposed to get it. Not everybody is supposed to be financially secure or positioned beyond their wildest dreams. Not everybody can even handle such windfalls. Not everybody survives.There is no evidence of that. Model 3 has not made Model S less profitable (the extended refresh period is the result of supplier issues). Significantly, Model 3 has NOT decreased demand for the refreshed Model S, which Tesla now says is back ordered into 2022Q2. Indeed, Elon thinks 2.5K/wk production, maybe 2.7K "if we're lucky".
Similarly, Model Y has not cut into Model X demand, as we will see once production is back up to speed.
What HAS happened is that Tesla has been able to cut costs of goods sold even faster than it has cut prices on existing models. This is the "double-flywheel" that analysts spoke about:
At this point, you need a gut-check. Perhaps, tune-out the twitters you're trying to convince, and focus on your own beliefs. It's no crime to take care of yourself, and let the ignorant miss out on the biggest investment opportunity since the onset of the Industrial age (the Dutch East India Company was pre-industrial).
- cutting costs allows a price cut even while increasing margins (this part IS well documented in the 10-Q's for the past 2 quarters)
- cutting retail prices increases demand and sales in an enviroment of constantly increasing production (leading to higher TOTAL profits)
Good luck, hope you find your way.
Predictable stock prices can be more profitable than unpredictable stock pricesLoving the price action but can we go one week without it being blatantly obvious based on the weekly call expiration where the stock will be tried to held down???
Tractor beam right back to 720 every time it tries to break higher. I hope there's some surprise news later this week that's blows up the MM's this week. Never in all my investing years have I see a stock's trading be so consistently obvious where a stock get's pinned to on a weekly basis based on the options.