TSLA down and NKLA up. What a world.
Agreed but surely Elon can say something very easy to understand like "this means our packs will be X% lighter, X% cheaper, and X% more dense. That means that once we fully ramp our lines we can sell a Model 3 Performance for 40k and maintain our margin."
You're operating in a logistics vacuum. There is exactly 0.0000% chance that Tesla replaces the Panasonic 2170 / GF1 supply chain with roadrunner cells.
None.
Panasonic has a 3 yr contract with Tesla that specifies price and volume of deliveries. Even a global pandemic could not stop that steamroller.
Newer factories such as Berlin and Austin will obtain new bty supplies, likely derviatives based on the industrial learning obtained partly through "Roadrunner", but those are STILL not replacing Fremont's supply of 2170's. Those will remain through Panasonic/GF1 even though they will see steady improvements (as Panasonic announced for Sep 2020).
Model S and X at Fremont are the obvious and ripe-for-updating products, since their current bty 18650 cells still come from Japan, and the Fremont Kato Rd project appears to be sized correctly to provide enough cells for the entire model lineup of S/X/R2 (not just the Plaid versions, but ~80K/yr).
Tesla HAS to do it this way to reduce technological risk. NO ONE has ever built a Roadrunner cell, pack, car, or bty factory. You DO NOT start with your bread'n'butter product lineup, that's what pays the bills. Plaid S/X however, with their healthy markups, are the ideal way to buy time needed to gain the inevitable hard-won experience while not losing money.
As the technology improves, it will be rolled out to more mainstream products, and likely parts of it shared with Tesla's partners such as CATL in China, who have been working with Tesla for over a year on a 'cell-to-pack' LFP solution. This seems to be the MiC Model 3 LFP (for export?), but even that project is still likely still not shipping until 2021Q1.
It takes time.
Cheers!
