MC3OZ
Active Member
First of all, I don't buy the Tesla Network talk. Robotaxis in the next 5 years are a fantasy IMO.
Secondly, Tesla producing all of the cars for the world is so far beyond fantasy I don't know what to call it.
However, I believe this crisis will cause Tesla's EV technology and production lead to widen significantly. The lead will become an even bigger joke than it is now. The market really underappreciates this.
I think Battery Day is going to be a huge landmark in Tesla's history. I'm torn between thinking (1) it will be nuclear fuel for TSLA to take a big jump or (2) the market won't appreciate how significant the developments are. Regardless, 10+ years from now, my bet is Battery Day is remembered almost as much as the Model 3 reveal.
Whether it is later this year, sometime next year or a little longer, a ton of folks are going to regret missing out on TSLA at $427.53. The ride will be uncomfortable, but long term Tesla will stun people who still don't get it.
I agree with most of what you say but give the Tesla network some chance, how long it will take is hard to know, but I think Tesla will be first or second. If they are second there will not be far behind first and with the advantage of a lower cost base will dominate the market.
I think Elon, Karpathy and co know what they are doing and know a lot more about it that we do, yes they are probably optimistic but my bet is 6-24 months worth of optimism, not 5 years.
This is an area where I think past progress is no indicator at all of future progress...
The thing that bothers me the most is low sun blinding the cameras, or some other camera obstruction, I think there is a software solution, but the physics of that start out as a big disadvantage...