jeewee3000
Active Member
I disagree. There is less probability of the stock dropping back to below $450 at this point (30% drop from $650) than for it to climb to $845.We'll probably get there (and even higher). I wouldn't necessarily sell a core long position, I'm just saying that opening a new position now is probably not the best idea from a risk / reward standpoint.
Both could happen soon, both could not.
Either way, in the long run I believe +$1000 is possible within two years so a 50% reward is possible when buying at $650. Sounds pretty great to me compared to most stocks.
Your statements are solely based on the emotion that we must drop sometime. We will, but it might be after reaching $700 and then seeing a 10% drop to $630. In this case, your buy at $650 is quite OK.
So my personal opinion, not advice, is:
- if you were to get in now, it is still a good time BUT;
- you might want to spread your buys (once every month/ three months) to average;
- you might want to hold some dry powder in case of a dip;
- you don't need the money for at least three years, preferably way longer (5-10y).
If you are saying I wouldn't open a short-term share position right now, that I can agree with. Better use a smaller amount of money for a call and keep the rest in case we go down.