Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

Yes and no. TSLA does indeed list R&D separately (like how tech companies do it), but Tesla also has to pay for factory and tooling that other companies have amortized long ago (which is an added cost against gross margin). So Tesla still has better margins net of these differences.

More great info. Can you give me a source to real margin numbers with/without the R&D included in COGS and comparisons to OEMs? Do Teslas’s margins (of 20%+??) excluding R&D vs OEMs (of 10%+??) go to Tesla of 15% including R&D, still higher, or somesuch??

Can you help me learn how to look up the “real” numbers and do the math. myself?

 

[anthonyj]

ok... WHY is premarket down? is it all because of this muppet with the 49% tipranks score? are people this stupid?

The stock is manipulated af. What happened this morning proves that.

 

[winfield100]

$420.69 - the gift that keeps giving!

@Lycanthrope
Is there a separate thread for the $420.soixante-Neuf buys? I got another share this am.

 

[ABCTG]

I think I've found a new video that rivals the "burning BMW being put out by sewage" video for being an apt analogy of the state of BMW's financial outlook

Elektromobilität-Forum on Twitter

BMW 's attempt at Full Self Driving not going so well...

 

[Causalien]

The 2nd Generation FSD chip will solve that, because it will allow training to occur directly from the User/Operator to the local device. ie: you can teach it how you want it to drive, and it'll learn what you want.

BTW, I also wouldn't send a 16 yr-old driver out in a blinding snow storm, nor my Tesla. The Owner will need to transition from "Operator" to "Manager". In some ways, this will be much easier than Robotaxi/TN where the number of unknowns if nearly unlimited.

But I can see a robotic grain truck working on my cousin's Farm.

Cheers!

Ah, I remember driving in a blinding snowstorm at night for 6 hours to another city. My winter tires didn't have any traction and we were basically drifting on snow the whole time. 2 feet of puffy snow and black ice underneath can do that. Now that I've had time to reflect in a warmer climate. Driving in a storm like that should be reserved as a hazardous occupation in the future and nobody, not even FSD should be allowed on the road when condition is such. I probably burnt twice as much fuel per km as usual since the tire was basically spinning on snow the whole time. Us Canadians should be hired as the only qualified people with such specialties.

There is always this question in my head on whether FSD can beat Canadians when it comes to driving in such condition.

 

[Tslynk67]

@Lycanthrope
Is there a separate thread for the $420.soixante-Neuf buys? I got another share this am.

Show off!

 

[lklundin]

@Troy thinks deliveries will be 108,400.

Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) on Twitter

Well, his guess is as helpful as mine. I am sticking with my 83k...

 

[lklundin]

Nice call @Navin. Wish I had some dry powder.

We all had wishes. German markets were closed today...

 

[Nocturnal]

The Netherland's deliveries have been insane.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

As of Tuesday morning, 11,563 Model 3s were registered in the country in December, according to Kentekenradar, which publishes daily Dutch fleet data updates. Tesla needs to hand over roughly 105,000 vehicles worldwide this quarter to hit the low end of its guidance for 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year.

Kudos to everyone there for recognizing a quality product and the importance of moving away from fossil fuels. I suppose being below sea level adds some extra incentive.

 

[lklundin]

I have relatives in that area who work in automotive and have done so for more than one generation.

Have you in their presence posed a tentative question regarding Tesla?

 

[winfield100]

Show off!

@Lycanthrope
Well, I have to send $$$ to Schwab

 

[AudubonB]

@Lycanthrope
Is there a separate thread for the $420.soixante-Neuf buys? I got another share this am.

OR -

You ALL can stop wasting electrons on this garbage. It lost its meager humor many hundreds of posts ago.

Not advice.

 

[PlaidCPA]

Tesla Model 3 Performance wins 2019 Car of the Year - Doug DeMuro

Very good review and big win for Tesla. He has huge following in Car world.

To skip to Tesla please go to 20:50

 

[Steve m]

Ah, I remember driving in a blinding snowstorm at night for 6 hours to another city. My winter tires didn't have any traction and we were basically drifting on snow the whole time. 2 feet of puffy snow and black ice underneath can do that. Now that I've had time to reflect in a warmer climate. Driving in a storm like that should be reserved as a hazardous occupation in the future and nobody, not even FSD should be allowed on the road when condition is such. I probably burnt twice as much fuel per km as usual since the tire was basically spinning on snow the whole time. Us Canadians should be hired as the only qualified people with such specialties.

There is always this question in my head on whether FSD can beat Canadians when it comes to driving in such condition.

Alaska

 

[CalX]

Does it make sense for shorts to cover today to be able to count those losses against any gains for tax purposes? Wondering if the buying is shorts covering or longs accumulating.

 

[Krugerrand]

Have you in their presence posed a tentative question regarding Tesla?

 

[mickificki]

Tesla Model 3 Performance wins 2019 Car of the Year - Doug DeMuro

Very good review and big win for Tesla. He has huge following in Car world.

To skip to Tesla please go to 20:50

Thank you for sharing this. This was a phenomenal review of the M3 performance as car of the year. He was gushing over it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Excellent observation and info. Does anyone (calling @Fact Checking ) have any numbers for the amount/proportion of Tesla R&D that is FSD? Even better, it is it easy for me to find this in the officially published quarterly reports? (teaching me to frish)

I think the Autopilot and AI groups give more than 50% of Tesla's R&D opex. Solar City R&D is around $30m/quarter, so that's 10% from the $334m of R&D opex in Q3.

I believe Grohmann is expensed as cost of revenue, with no income, I believe - at least that's how @luvb2b's model does it.

 

[The Accountant]

Out of curiousity (and perhaps a lapse of judgement) I started a twitter discussion with a Tesla (and TSLA) basher, no clue if he is TSLAQ or whatever.

His subject kept changing after my questions about his challenges to Shanghai production capacity and and then about profitability, then when I moved onto margins I got this response that I haven’t seen before:

“...Well no - their margins aren’t higher than traditional OEMs. Traditional OEMs include R&D in their COGs and Tesla does not. ...”

I haven’t done my own math, but everything I read says that Tesla’s margins are now in the 20% range, giving them something like $5k revenue over manufacturing cost for an average Model 3, vs more like 10% for folks like Ford and $1k revenue over manufacturing costs. Is he claiming that this difference is a fraudulent claim because Tesla costs exclude R&D and others do not?

Is there a good source for “real” margin comparisons that will verify Tesla’s competitive margin advantage? Pehaps the numbers get distorted by the capital expenditures in support of exponential manufacturing growth, which only applies to Tesla?

Thanks for your help.

It's true that Tesla records R&D in Operating Costs instead of COGS (Auto makers include them in COGS).
In Q3, Tesla had margins of 19% (see below). If you included R&D in COGS, Tesla's margins would have been about 14%. Still very competitive when compared to Fiat/Chrysler and Ford (both at 13% in the lasted quarter). VW shows 19% but they have huge scale.

Here are some of my thoughts:

• Regardless of where you put R&D, they fall to the Operating Income for all companies. So OpInc is apples to apples and with Tesla showing 4% OpInc % in Q3, they beat FCAU (1%) and Ford (3%) and lag VW (7$) - see table above.
• Most companies outside of Auto do not include R&D in COGS - seems to be unique to Auto industry.
• I believe that the Auto companies put R&D into COGS because most of their R&D is related to autos that are in market. Their R&D is to enhance the sales of existing cars. Whereas Tesla spends much of their R&D on cars that have not yet come to market and have no sales (e.g. MY, CT, Semi)
• It is quite amazing that Tesla can drive margins of 19% and OpInc of 4% with only $6B in quarterly sales. Once Tesla gets to $20B or even $10B in Quarterly sales, they will gain huge economies of scale and will outperform all of the competition.

EDIT: Need to add this: Should we be comparing Tesla to companies in the Auto industry? I don't think so. Tesla is much more than an Auto company.

 

[Krugerrand]

EDIT: Need to add this: Should we be comparing Tesla to companies in the Auto industry? I don't think so. Tesla is much more than an Auto company.

Depends on if you think Baryshnikov dances like Elaine Benes.

Yes, I’m still trying to add something interesting to accounting. No offense, but please tell me you skydive for fun.