Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

Yeah, I don't see why install would matter. The money is earned as soon as the software is available to the customer, not when the customer bothers to install it.

The trade war won't be over until we have a new POTUS.​

Cant be sure how it works but as they have a rollout queue rather than everyone being able to go out and download immediately the only way to make it available to everyone is to empty that queue as fast as possible.

 

[Nocturnal]

Discussed with a diesel head today about EV polluting more because the power mix is mostly coal (They only seem to talk to me about it if they don't know I drive Tesla) . Instead of outright denying and rebutting the misinformation, I just said jokingly :

"That's like telling people that cycling is unhealthy for you because you ate McDonalds the whole day."

I believe enlightening them might have a better effect in converting them than outright confrontation.

It's so frustrating dealing with people that are immune from basic facts. US power from coal is down to 27% as of 2018, and it's dropping a few % each year, and that's just the US average. People are morons.

Cant be sure how it works but as they have a rollout queue rather than everyone being able to go out and download immediately the only way to make it available to everyone is to empty that queue as fast as possible.

I'm not even sure downloading is required. ​

 

[Cherry Wine]

Is the market drop correlated to the recent fed comments? Seems to me that the trade war is not done with wreaking the stock market.

Powell Warns of ‘Significant Risks,’ Hardening Rate-Cut Bets

Like an addict, the market wants rate cuts. Powell gave fairly dovish comments on the state of the economy that could be interpreted to mean that an intense series of rate cuts were unlikely to come.

 

[Cherry Wine]

It's so frustrating dealing with people that are immune from basic facts. US power is down to 27% as of 2018, and it's dropping a few % each year, and that's just the US average. People are morons.

What do you mean by "US power is down to 27% as of 2018"? (genuinely curious) Do you mean the percentage of US power generated by coal?

 

[Nocturnal]

What do you mean by "US power is down to 27% as of 2018"? (genuinely curious) Do you mean the percentage of US power generated by coal?

Yes, corrected. My bad.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I don't think the accounting rules require the owner to actually install the update for the extra revenue to be recognized. Making the update available to each owner would be all that was required. And it's my understanding that the update downloads to each car automatically, it is only the install that requires the user to take action. So the revenue will be realized (as a delivered feature) whether or not the owner installs it before the EOQ.

No, .32 added a new feature where the car notifies you that an update is available to download and you can actually initiate the download manually(not sure if it eventually downloads for you if you do nothing)

 

[KarenRei]

View attachment 451332
Raven is using motor from M3. The description is the same in other EPA documents as well:
https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=46583&flag=1

That's from January. Still too old. Raven was unveiled in late May.

 

[Tslynk67]

I imagine I am not the only one like this, but I have to go out of my way to get my car connected to Wifi. So when an update came through I had to make the effort to occasionally go check the software section of the settings and see if there was a new download.

After I got 2019.32 I was curious how it would work, and yesterday morning I had a big yellow down pointing arrow next to the sentry mode hal 9000 icon. So I made sure to go connect to Wifi and get the update.

I have no idea how many people are like me as far as their car being daily connected to wifi. But as a potential example:

New update goes out, first 100 people are given chance to download
70% connect to wifi daily
30% check every 3 days if they need to. (Im just spitballing these figures)

On day 1: 70 installs happen, (30 people have bandwidth reserved for them but aren't downloading)
On day 2: 49 installs happen (30 original still wont check for 2 days, additionally 21 new people in queue dont park in wifi. Total 51 delayed)
On day 3: 39 instant installs happen + 30 delayed people (21 from day 2 haven't checked, and 14 new people in queue with no wifi: total 35)
On day 4: 48 instant installs happen + 21 delayed people ( 14 people haven't checked and 21 new people in queue with no wifi: total 35)

so in 4 days thats 206 installs vs 400 if everyone downloaded day of

assuming the dash notification gets people excited enough to go out and download as soon as they see it this minor feature additional would double the rollout speed.

Obviously Im just making up numbers as far as case A and B but I can only assume that it was added now instead of in v10 inself because they wanted to make sure an upcoming rollout happened as fast as possible.

Once you see the update notification, the download is already done and cached in the car's memory.

I've noticed that I'm getting updates quite quickly these days - might be since I purchased FSD. I am on WiFi all the time at home, and as I hardly use my car in the week, that's for long periods, usually 24/7 actually.

 

[RFernatt]

It's so frustrating dealing with people that are immune from basic facts. US power from coal is down to 27% as of 2018, and it's dropping a few % each year, and that's just the US average. People are morons.

And, if you have solar, you can cleanly run your house and EVs for zero incremental cost. Just the up front cost for solar to lock in your electricity price for decades (presuming no retroactive shenanigans by the PSC, of course).

 

[Prunesquallor]

And, if you have solar, you can run your house and EVs for zero incremental cost. Just the up front cost for solar to lock in your electricity price for decades (presuming no retroactive shenanigans by the PSC, of course).

Or if your power company gives you the option of solar/wind credits. You almost have to TRY to use coal in the US.

 

[Nocturnal]

And, if you have solar, you can run your house and EVs for zero incremental cost. Just the up front cost for solar to lock in your electricity price for decades (presuming no retroactive shenanigans by the PSC, of course).

And it's also worth mentioning that most of us charge at night when the utility has excess generation. Night charging is far cleaner than charging during peak times.

 

[jerry33]

What do you mean by "US power is down to 27% as of 2018"? (genuinely curious) Do you mean the percentage of US power generated by coal?

Yes. That's what's meant. Coal is just a minor player now.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That's from January. Still too old. Raven was unveiled in late May.

You are misinterpreting these Applications. They are submitted to EPA before equipment goes into production. Also, Raven is using M3 motors. They were not specifically developed for Raven. The second document I posted is the latest on file with EPA, and it is covering M3 motor used for Raven.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's so frustrating dealing with people that are immune from basic facts. US power from coal is down to 27% as of 2018, and it's dropping a few % each year, and that's just the US average. People are morons.

A report from Moody's this week put the drop in coal demand over the next decade at "more than 50%". Considering the shortsightedness of Moody's, you can probably consider that projected drop to be very conservative. Excited to hear the same about gas in 2023.

I encourage all posters to explore these transition topics in the TMC Energy Forum

 

[Green Pete]

Once you see the update notification, the download is already done and cached in the car's memory.

I've noticed that I'm getting updates quite quickly these days - might be since I purchased FSD. I am on WiFi all the time at home, and as I hardly use my car in the week, that's for long periods, usually 24/7 actually.

This is not true. I saw the yellow download arrow, turned on my phones wifi hotspot. Downloaded the software for 20 minutes. Arrow turned green and I was prompted for install now or later on screen.

 

[jerry33]

This is not true. I saw the yellow download arrow, turned on my phones wifi hotspot. Downloaded the software for 20 minutes. Arrow turned green and I was prompted for install now or later on screen.

Yes, behaviour has recently changed. Used to be as Lycanthrope indicated until a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Doggydogworld]

So... no track mode, not a professional driver, and frequently obstructed by slower traffic. I think there's no doubt that a professional driver in a raven demoing a new Model S track mode on an open track could vastly improve on his time. I'm assuming that when a company puts a car on Nürburgring for a time run they don't have to contend with other vehicles?

TBH, a 1:18 improvement (~17%) doesn't seem like any kind of stretch at all considering the differences.

It's closer to a 2 minute difference - the Model 3 driver ran 9:10 on a course that's more than 1 km shorter. Not that a stock Model 3 with an amateur driver and some traffic has any relevance.

If a modified Raven S (brakes, suspension, wheels/tires, cooling, etc.) can beat 7:42 it will create a great opportunity for a $30k Track Mode Package. Then Porsche will bring out some cards they've been holding in their back pocket, and so on.

This is terrific for both companies and EVs in general.

 

[Pezpunk]

g ...... g ....... grr...... gree......?

 

[willow_hiller]

g ...... g ....... grr...... gree......?

Shhh.... You'll scare it...

 

[Todd Burch]

g ...... g ....... grr...... gree......?

Don't.