CalX
Member
The drop correlates more with the insideev estimates but if you add July and August compared to the first two month of last quarter, it's not bad at all. I think we still have a good shot of beating Q2.
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At this point I'm really tired of the estimates from InsideEVs. Its borderline stock manipulation because they are not official numbers, yet they can push the stock in either direction.
To me at least, it's very apparent that they underestimate on the first 2 months of the quarter so that they can match the official quarterly number from Tesla and have it "make sense". They're afraid of overestimating monthly numbers because then they would have to post only a moderate increase in the 3rd month. I'm sure that they are confident in their methodology but they've been shown to be off before and the fact that they refuse to post their estimates of 3rd month sales before Tesla posts theirs reeks of them making guesses in their estimates
The drop correlates more with the insideev estimates but if you add July and August compared to the first two month of last quarter, it's not bad at all. I think we still have a good shot of beating Q2.
Accumulation is happening slowly. This isn’t a bear raid though. This is just day traders. I’ve never seen a stock like this one. They are picking up pennies infront of a steamroller, might get a leaked email from Musk soonI continue to be disappointed in big money investors that are not from Wall St during these bear raids on days and news events like these. I have a very hard time seeing how the big boys wouldn't see at least some potential in Tesla at these price points and buying up any bear raids that happen.
I continue to be disappointed in big money investors that are not from Wall St during these bear raids on days and news events like these. I have a very hard time seeing how the big boys wouldn't see at least some potential in Tesla at these price points and buying up any bear raids that happen.
hmmm... so you are saying $200k avg price and $17k profit so 8.5% gross margin? At those price points it is a substantial chunk of change, but I expected Porsche to have better margins. Am I missing something?
Well, their estimates are just that, estimates.
They’re not claiming to be precise or accurate.
If they overestimated, there will also be people complaining. So, just take it for what it is, an estimate.
My takeaway from them is new Raven update still not really doing a big favor to overall Tesla sales volume.
The drop correlates more with the insideev estimates but if you add July and August compared to the first two month of last quarter, it's not bad at all. I think we still have a good shot of beating Q2.
insideevs
“Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In U.S.
Our estimates show that Tesla delivered some 13,150 Model 3 to U.S. buyers in August 2019. That's a wee bit down from the 13,450 Model 3s to U.S. buyers in July 2019. And it's substantially down from the 21,225 delivered in June (end of the quarter month) and below the 13,950 Model 3 delivered to U.S. buyers in May 2019, but well above the 10,050 Model 3 delivered to U.S. buyers in April 2019.”
Why should they hurry? They clearly have at least a month to sit and plan. Plus they're only back from the beach two days and the kids re off to school. Give it a couple weeks, a $40B valuation right now is absurd.I continue to be disappointed in big money investors that are not from Wall St during these bear raids on days and news events like these. I have a very hard time seeing how the big boys wouldn't see at least some potential in Tesla at these price points and buying up any bear raids that happen.
Hence their imminent demise.
"I think moats are lame," Musk said on the call. "They're like nice in a sort of quaint, vestigial way. But if your only defense against invading armies is a moat, you will not last long. What matters is the pace of innovation. That is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness."
I hear you. At the same time its hard to resist analyzing the most realistic competitor Tesla has. And I think it is relevant -- Tesla is still small and only on the cusp of sustainability. If Porsche had delivered the hype of a true Tesla killer then that could endanger Tesla's growth. So, as an investor, I find it important to be informed on the matter. Kinda like the Brexit analysis which I know really annoy some but I find valuable.
I like the Norway delivery numbers (and the Netherlands), but smaller markets are prone to significant variation due to a number of reasons so while I do track the Norway deliveries I find it hard to make any useful projection from them. It does seem to me that it may be settling in on sustained demand -- March 2019 numbers were through the roof, July's more realistic and I expect September to drop a bit more. And I'm curious to see if I'm right, and how many quarters it takes to settle. But there also seems to be a fair amount of noise -- I wouldn't try to make any strong predictions from the data.
Oversees deliveries are definitely taking a bite out US deliveries.
That's fanboy talk. Also, some car guys care about pollution.Funny all this angst about the Porsche Taycan. It’s a Porsche, enough said. If you are a car guy , you get it, if you are a tree hugger you don’t.
Range? If you are dropping $200k on a Taycan, you are using the 2nd or 3rd car, whatever that may be to go on long trips.
Yeah, that would make 26,600 M3s for the first two months of Q3 vs 24,000 for first two of Q2 -- an 11% Q-over-Q increase.
Tesla says they delivered >50% of Q1 in the last 10 days, they leaked emails indicating ~33k in June (includes Canada), we see huge tent-sale type events right up to midnight at the end of each quarter and they regularly talk about problems caused by delivering so many cars in the 3rd month, yet you think InsideEVs underestimates the first two months as part of some stock manipulation scheme?To me at least, it's very apparent that they underestimate on the first 2 months of the quarter...
...can't fix that for you |Family-friendly site|.What sites can get away with nowadays blowsmind.
And to riff on this even more, a substantial Q-over-Q increase in non-U.S. M3 sales this quarter seems baked in, given the expanding markets and likely logistics improvements.And Model S from 1850 to 2025 (+11%) Q-over-Q and Model X from 2425 to 2950 (+22%). So this bear raid has no merit.