Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

OT but this is the right audience...

When Tesla chooses a car sound to warn pedestrians in parking lots, I vote for the whine of that turbine spinning up.

Or else deafening rap music.

 

[RobStark]

I vote we also add in an oil pump and oil circulation loop, because, you know, oil changes.

How to change the oil in your Tesla. Starts at 3:55

 

[MarcusMaximus]

But is that really different than any of us longs that are in for that much of our investment totals? We’ve got a good number of investors that are all in. And yes, some of them lost a shirt or two in the past.

He doesn’t have much going for him, but he’s at least committed. Everybody has one redeeming quality.

I’m not even sure he’ll ever feel any pain because I’m not convinced he’s playing with his own money. And he certainly doesn’t care about coming across like a fool.

On the other hand, as the SP drops, our percentage of holdings in Tesla drops with it(unless we buy more). As the SP rises, his exposure % increases.

 

[Causalien]

The comments are amusing

I facepalmed midway through.

This giy is going to get liquidated by some wallstreet guy. He just revealed his position size and the breakeven point. Someone somewhere is going to whip out a calculator and see at what point he will get margin called. Then promptly bid the stock up to that price briefly.

** edit: back of napkin calculation. $600. Assuming margin requitement doesn't get raised.

 

[Causalien]

I think it is more complex social and more simple business issue.
The complex story is that Tesla started out as a little tiny upstart. A lot of media liked them, they were quirky and bold. Queue up 2016 and suddenly Elon Musk is a big shot billionaire. The former upstart is boldly pushing an agenda and shaking up legacy companies and twitter. The media and liberals in general don't see the quirky upstart, they see a non-union big shot bullying its way into the big leagues. Liberals might also see a billionaire big shot and nonunion guy. Conservatives may see a guy trying to save the environment, which is stupid because the environment is fine. Those environmentalists are in it for government handouts, or a new way to micromanage the world by like minded bureaucrats. The Elon is a handouts story played to conservative fears of environmentalism as a big handout festival. Elon is an iconoclastic dude, and doesn't fit into a democrat or republican box, so people who just care about picking sides and party polemics, are not going to understand Elon or Tesla.
On the simple business side, Elon bailed out Solar City. It may have been and be the right decision, but it brought in a holy host of bad-ass short sellers. These guys are warriors and they do not take prisoners. They put a social media smear campaign on that continues through today and probably wont' end, even if Tesla has a billion in profits tomorrow. Big oil and auto have hopped on the big short media campaign for now, but this has a limited shelf life. Big auto is now trying to market their own EV's and can't really say Tesla is crap or EV's don't work without undercutting their own investment thesis. Big oil may be big and bad, but there is a historical confluence of technical capabilities way beyond Tesla that are kicking their tails. A social media campaign against Tesla just puts them further at risk of missing the strategic challenge coming their way and it is not going to dissuade consumers and nations from acting in their best interests (in the long run). If big oil got it, they would be focused on squeezing every dollar out of their existing assets and minimizing new investments. Both the shorts and big oil are missing the big picture, or getting it and fighting a short term fight against a long term trend. That won't end well if that's all they got.

The people that will matter long term are consumers. They will buy Tesla's because the rest of the cars out there suck in comparison. As Tesla options broaden out and I can pick a luxury sedan, SUV, premium mid-sized car and SUV, I have 1/4 of the market covered. As Tesla adds a truck, now we've got probably about 1/3 of the addressable vehicle market covered. They add in a jeep like vehicle, a minivan and a compact car\CUV and they're addressing 75% of the vehicle market. At that point party politics, or fear of change or short selling and big oil won't matter. Profitably selling 3 or 5 million or more cars a year and selling transportation as a service with big margins will matter.

The shorts has always been this high as far as I can remember. Don't think SCTY brought on more badass ones.

 

[Artful Dodger]

When Tesla chooses a car sound to warn pedestrians in parking lots, I vote for the whine of that turbine spinning up.

Or else deafening rap music.

Lol, train horns.

 

[Buckminster]

Hours before ER - quiet before the storm perhaps, but don't recall this forum so muted previously.

Time to warm this thread up:
Super Bulls Only

The sheer amount of material (steak) news that Elon is definitely and probably sitting on is off the charts. TSLA is like a balloon of hydrogen in-between a prototype methalox rocket engine and a 10 year old kid with a flamethrower.

 

[CalX]

The idea of casting the whole car or a large frame seems good for manufacturing, but when it comes to repairs, it will be a nightmare to replace the frame. Imagine how expensive that would be and how much disassembly to separate and replace one large frame.

 

[Buckminster]

The idea of casting the whole car or a large frame seems good for manufacturing, but when it comes to repairs, it will be a nightmare to replace the frame. Imagine how expensive that would be and how much disassembly to separate and replace one large frame.

Firstly, Elon will be confident that with FSD/AP/Collision avoidance/Tesla in-house body repairs/Tesla Insurance in place, the risk of customer / Tesla exposure is low.

Secondly, they could crash test welded stampings to prove repairability.

 

[Steve m]

The idea of casting the whole car or a large frame seems good for manufacturing, but when it comes to repairs, it will be a nightmare to replace the frame. Imagine how expensive that would be and how much disassembly to separate and replace one large frame.

Once FSD is working combined with levitation from the rocket thrustes a Tesla will never be in an accident.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Don’t make assumptions.

I’ve owned pickups my whole driving life (decades) and ‘hint’ I might not have called California home my entire life.

I also know women and even those in Texas and Nebraska do NOT appreciate climbing in and out of a pickup when dressed up. Yes, even women who own pickups and regularly drive/use them. They may do it and not complain outwardly about it, but I assure you most have had the eye rolling discussion with their besties.

Feel free to put on some stilettos, Spanx, hose and a tight/cocktail/evening dress with your cleavage on display and give it a go. It’s especially fun when there isn’t a running board and the truck is jacked up and covered in mud from the weekend.

Ford made the same mistake as you. They should be marketing to Tesla owners, as well as everyone else who might need The King of pickups, and people interested in an electric pickup and interested in the environment, and, and.... That right there is why that commercial/ad is so contrived. How brave of Ford to use a female engineer AND let her drive with a geek as her copilot, while ‘surprising’ a bunch of stereotypical pickup owners. But hey, maybe that’s the real message they want to convey; EVs are for women and nerds, but real men want diesel.

As a woman, and who has dressed up only to have to crawl up into a cab... Eh, it depends. Certain outfits really don't work well with the mechanics of having to hoist a leg up 2 feet from the ground, and then haul yourself up into the cab. But at the same time, those outfits don't like ANY mode of transportation. I've driven cars that don't like those outfits, I usually have to disassemble something (most often shoes) to actually drive, or even to get in/out of the vehicle. Fashion is a BMW.

I've had conversations with the guy who owned the truck, about how his mother/sister complained about his lack of running board. From my impression of the conversation, he was more (somewhat) proud of this than it sounded like they were annoyed. I think because he believed it made him more manly, or something.

For the commercial, I think they did a fairly good job at depicting a normal commercial that dispels myths. The Engineer wasn't the stereotypical runway model they have showing off cars, and such commercials usually snag up "real life people, just like you" to "impress" with their vehicles. There are any number of ICE vehicle commercials who do the exact same thing. "Ooohhh, look at these amazing numbers, can you guess what cost the car would be?! Wrong, look, it's a 2019 ______ _____!"

I think the commercial mostly goes to the guys who buy F-150's, but have desk jobs and have used the bed of their truck, like, once a year to help a friend move a couch. They're not construction workers, but they believe the construction workers are the "manliest man who men" and "if they're impressed, it must be impressive" whilst having no true understanding that the load on the truck was not nearly as impressive as the video implies.

 

[Green Pete]

I realize these earnings calls are generally boring but I cant help but have thing nagging feeling there will be big news.

OT:
He did awkwardly delete a tweet from earlier. I’m hoping it’s just to prevent things from distracting from earnings but I really wanted him to answer. Laura J. Nelson on Twitter

 

[Off Shore]

Pos

I realize these earnings calls are generally boring but I cant help but have thing nagging feeling there will be big news.

OT:
He did awkwardly delete a tweet from earlier. I’m hoping it’s just to prevent things from distracting from earnings but I really wanted him to answer. Laura J. Nelson on Twitter

Possibly. Also, it's a Tesla quiet period, and he may have had a call from his Twitter warden.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The idea of casting the whole car or a large frame seems good for manufacturing, but when it comes to repairs, it will be a nightmare to replace the frame. Imagine how expensive that would be and how much disassembly to separate and replace one large frame.

This was discussed on electrek. Conclusion seemed to be that it made no difference to the situation now with welded frame being effectively one piece.
It’s a weld job, using another wreck for spares, or it’s a write off, just as now.

 

[CyberDutchie]

It seems to be turning into a "then they license their brand names to a Chinese company". Every one of them has hooked up with a Chinese company to slap their badges on a Chinese EV. So, as I've said before, watch the Chinese EV makers -- they are the competition. They are stiff competition and should be watched seriously. Ignore the legacies.

The legacy OEM’s are just in a tough spot: at a time that automotive sales (and thus profits) are suffering, they are required to invest a ton of money in CASE technologies (Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electrification) to remain relevant. They have to seek partnerships with the Chinese and others to share the investment burden.

 

[Krugerrand]

As a woman, and who has dressed up only to have to crawl up into a cab... Eh, it depends. Certain outfits really don't work well with the mechanics of having to hoist a leg up 2 feet from the ground, and then haul yourself up into the cab. But at the same time, those outfits don't like ANY mode of transportation. I've driven cars that don't like those outfits, I usually have to disassemble something (most often shoes) to actually drive, or even to get in/out of the vehicle. Fashion is a BMW.

What about the time you were wearing the shorter or flowing skirt/dress and as you hopped down from truck height the skirt either got caught up on the seat belt or the up-current from the height caught it and you did a Marilyn Monroe, but without being able to catch the fabric with your hands?

And then you landed and the heel of your shoe broke or you just rolled your ankle because you misjudged the distance or better yet, the heels sunk into the ground (because of course the parking lot was full, but hey we’ve got this 4x4 so we can park ‘here’) and you windmilled those arms like no tomorrow, but to no avail.

Point being, it’s a dumb thing for a guy to say on its own and it’s even dumber to let him say it on camera for a pickup truck commercial/ad.

 

[LN1_Casey]

What about the time you were wearing the shorter or flowing skirt/dress and as you hopped down from truck height the skirt either got caught up on the seat belt or the up-current from the height caught it and you did a Marilyn Monroe, but without being able to catch the fabric with your hands?

And then you landed and the heel of your shoe broke or you just rolled your ankle because you misjudged the distance or better yet, the heels sunk into the ground (because of course the parking lot was full, but hey we’ve got this 4x4 so we can park ‘here’) and you windmilled those arms like no tomorrow, but to no avail.

Point being, it’s a dumb thing for a guy to say on its own and it’s even dumber to let him say it on camera for a pickup truck commercial/ad.

I can say very honestly I've never experienced those. The shorter skirt when I slide down does tend to flip up, which can be annoying, but it's similar to having to bend to get in/out of my own much lower positioned vehicle(s). Long skirts though; they can be a BMW, but mostly because they get caught in the door when I shut it behind me if I'm not careful, or hinder the actual crawling into the cab portion as I step/knee on portions.

It is a dumb thing to say, but I've also known a lot of dumb guys. I can legitimately see some of the guys I know say the same thing. It's generally the guy who doesn't even think about the difficulties their postion causes others, such as the listed example of a 4x4 parking in the muddy parking lot because "they've the truck for it" despite them being dressed up and their female partner is so obviously struggling as they get out, and they are like, "Oh. Are you ok?" as their partner windmills their arms, because they legitimately didn't even think about it.

So yeah, while it's definately a staged commercial, and heavily edited, it's still within the standard deviation of car commercial probaganda.

 

[Intl Professor]

It wouldn't have phased [adjusted to be in a synchronous condition] me either.

I too prefer eccentric. Who would have guessed?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I facepalmed midway through.

This giy is going to get liquidated by some wallstreet guy. He just revealed his position size and the breakeven point. Someone somewhere is going to whip out a calculator and see at what point he will get margin called. Then promptly bid the stock up to that price briefly.

** edit: back of napkin calculation. $600. Assuming margin requitement doesn't get raised.

Fine by me

 

[Fact Checking]

I facepalmed midway through.

This giy is going to get liquidated by some wallstreet guy. He just revealed his position size and the breakeven point. Someone somewhere is going to whip out a calculator and see at what point he will get margin called. Then promptly bid the stock up to that price briefly.

** edit: back of napkin calculation. $600. Assuming margin requitement doesn't get raised.

Spiegel's TSLA position is probably worth less than $10m, or to use @schonelucht monetary units: Spiegel's fund is worth about half a mousenut.

If Tesla was a micro cap then Spiegel would probably already have been squeezed out of his short position years ago, and he would have plenty of access to toilets in his day job to support his triple digit net worth.

But TSLA won't get bid up to squeeze a $10m position, as those with $100m and $1,000m and $10,000m positions would probably resist.

Spiegel, a Trump supporter, is a classic conspiracy theory nutjob grown on modern social media. The difference is that while most of the other peddlers of conspiracy theories try to maintain a healthy degree of separation from the truth value of their con and gain their income through advertising, merchandise and outright scamming of supporters; Spiegel seems to believe his own scam and has invested accordingly - which won't end well if we are right.