And that in itself would be an amazing speed - dirt to production in 13 months.
I think Tesla ordered tooling earlier than that, so the timeline started more than 13 months ago.
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And that in itself would be an amazing speed - dirt to production in 13 months.
Well, he came a long way from 72k, which stayed low even after that email from Elon. Very interested to know what changed for him. Because for me the writing was always there even mid quarter, as the order rates where much higher. At that time I argued that mid quarter the forecast should be made on order rate and not delivery rate.
Anyway good that the estimates are now converging. We will know the result soon.
As an FYI this was my estimate. As many suggested at the time, I was low on Canada and that may indeed be the case.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
That is not what the prediction about. It's next 4 quarters - so Q3, Q4, Q1 20 and Q2 20.As well as things are progressing at Gigafactory 3, I don't see it adding substantial volume to production numbers this year. The key will be to iron out the kinks, dial in the QC and hit 2020 running strong. The potential of G3 alone will add compelling value to Tesla shares in 2019 without producing significant volume until early next year.
That is not what the prediction about. It's next 4 quarters - so Q3, Q4, Q1 20 and Q2 20.
Wait Tesla didn't get scrapped already?snippets of CNBC giving their production estimates and doom and gloom scenarios for Q2
I believe the author is simply confused about what Tesla’s goal is, rather than trying to move the goalposts. He seems to analyse the company from the perspective of an ordinary automaker with the unique goal of maximising profits, and he seems convinced that Tesla should position itself as a high-margin, luxury car maker, an alternative BMW. Because he seems to think Tesla will not increase production capacity much from where they are now.
Of course, Tesla is all about growing the EV market share and increasing awareness, even at the expense of little or no profit for the foreseeable future, and of course they plan to quadruple their production capacity in the next 4-5 years.
I will give Matt DeBord the benefit of the doubt and assume he is just clueless, on this particular occasion.
Your essay is very appreciated by this community member. I sent it to relatives vulnerable to media disinformation. Terrific job, Frank.
Ideas for future additions/updates:
1) The potential of a Tesla App Store.
2) Synergy with SpaceX engineering and services (Starlink satellite internet).
SpaceX helps Tesla with materials engineering
(SpaceX and Tesla cooperate on advanced materials – NextBigFuture.com)
and maybe design (such as cold-gas thrusters in the next Roadster).
Musk: Roadster to go 0-60 in 2.1 seconds "before thruster option"
11-minute video about potential App Store and Starlink:
I really like this forum, but I wish there were more posts like this. Thank you very much for the effort you put into this.
No demand/missed deliveries was a great story for the shorts while it could be spun into the bankruptcy narrative. My guess is that these articles are seeing less clicks now that the stock price has stabilised and positive delivery comments have been coming from the company. Now a new way is needed to generate those precious precious clicks.What’s with all the Sunday Tesla articles telling us that delivery numbers are unimportant for reasons ranging from profit matters to Tesla should be more like BMW? It’s like they want everyone to ignore the numbers Tesla is about to post. I have no idea why they’d want that. Odd journalism
It doesn't matter whether Tesla delivers 90,000 cars or 900,000 in the 2nd quarter — what's more important is whether Tesla goes mass-market or stays luxury
“Before you conclude that I'm about to insist that BMW is in trouble, don't. BMW isn't in trouble. But BMW serves as a useful guide to what kind of car maker Tesla should be.” Lol
Tagline. Tesla, see the world, make it better.
My prediction for GF3. Pre-production trial runs late Q4/early Q1. Actual production for customer cars Feb/Mar 2020.
Maybe around 500 cars end of Q1 and slow ramp to mass production in Q2 and Q3 reaching full production capacity end of Q4 2020.
And that in itself would be an amazing speed - dirt to production in 13 months.
What kind of problems do you expect at GF3, which would delay volume production by 6 months?
GF3 will initially get SR+ packs from GF1, which reportedly is already above 7k/week capacity and had to slow production to match Fremont capacity. It seems entirely reasonable that they'll have 1k/week excess output at GF1 by the end of the year, to serve GF3.
Dang, premarket was up $6 when I just checked it. Any recent things to indicate why?