Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Blue Owl]

April 1, 1000 BC

I propose that we, as a society, come together and turn April Fools' Day into April News Day; make it the one day a year when all news is real, all interviews are well-meaning, and all articles factual. Judging by the headlines, it's already Fools' Day every other day. Since we can't seem to be able to clean the place up, maybe we should just clean the janitor's closet and move in it instead; at least it would simplify things.

 

[CorneliusXX]

There's relatively straightforward explanations to most of these questions:

• The Q4 VIN registrations by Tesla were very uneven: most of them happened early on in the quarter. If Bloomberg's averaging method gives fresh bursts of registrations higher weight than old ones it's easy to see such a 7.8k jump on a late 3.5k burst. Yes, there is such math.
• @tsunamiofhurt commented that he noticed the late update to 61k in the Bloomberg tracker on the afternoon of the 30th of December.
• @tsunamiofhurt tweeted on the 31st documenting that the Bloomberg tracker is predicting 61k: "Bloomberg has cumulative production at ~61k". Two days before the Tesla report.
• I have no idea what happened to Carsonight's screenshots - time zones sometimes showed previous week's data on the tracker. Or he had the previous value cached. In any case @tsunamiofhurt's tweet on December 31 is incontrovertible evidence that the Bloomberg tracker already changed by then.

That's direct evidence. Q.E.D.

Why don't you two just ask him on Twitter. It sounds like he is quite responsive.

 

[Causalien]

I don't know, what would China know about building a wall?

The optics of this would be amazingly confusing.

You can't hate it as it'd be jobs for minorities, but you need to hate it as it is blocking out minorities from getting those free social security.

 

[AudubonB]

I propose that we, as a society, come together and turn April Fools' Day into April News Day, and make it the one day a year when all news is real, all interviews are well-meaning, and all articles factual. I mean, judging by the headlines, it's already Fools' Day every other day of the year. Since we can't seem to be able to clean the place up, maybe we should just clean the janitor's closet and move in it instead; at least it would simplify things.

Far too sensible for reality as we know it.

 

[EVNow]

You can't hate it as it'd be jobs for minorities, but you need to hate it as it is blocking out minorities from getting those free social security.

This makes zero sense. BTW, do we really want to get into politics here ?

 

[CorneliusXX]

By 2021 CATL plans to have an annual battery production of 14 GWh up and running in Germany.

At 80 kWh per car, that's an annual 175k cars.

By 2026 they plan to get that up to 60GWh, enough for 750k 80kWh cars annually.

China's CATL to scale up EV battery production in Germany

I guess it's a start.

Looks like the Germans don't like LG strongarming.

 

[CalX]

Wait what? Thousands of complaints of Hyundais and Kias catching fire yet I'm just seeing news of it now? Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Nocturnal]

This SP is getting close to my average buy-in price.

This makes zero sense. BTW, do we really want to get into politics here ?

Please god no. I have like 3 places left where I can be free.

 

[lklundin]

Looks like the Germans don't like LG strongarming.

Yes. The only problem is:

"What does Germany hope to achieve with an extra 175k BEVs in 2021 and 750k ditto in 2026?"

- I am afraid the answer will be self-cannibalized sales.

 

[humbaba]

Wait what? Thousands of complaints of Hyundais and Kias catching fire yet I'm just seeing news of it now? Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This must be an April Fools story: the vehicles aren't even electric

 

[jbcarioca]

April 1, 1000 BC

Actually not. Sana'a is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities on earth, by some counts maybe the oldest, though Damascus is in the running.
There are still numerous buildings in use today that date from ~000 BC or so. It was in one of those that I indeed worked, while acting as CEO of The International Bank of Yemen, which still exists:
بنك اليمن الدولي - بنك اليمن الدولي
Once the shiny new office building was complete we moved there and opened the bank on Dec 25, 1979.
FWIW, My spouse and I both drove BMW's there, since we had no idea of BEV's after the 1909 Baker Electric (another story).

It is interesting that Tesla is present only in the UAE and Jordan in that region. There is likely to be a distinct market in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman, perhaps even Bahrain and Qatar. Iran will probably be significant when politics allows. FWIW, none of those markets are huge, but they do yield high profits and high ASP's, although Iran is heavily lower range vehicles. Within three years, at the rate things are going most of these countries should be served by Tesla.
Of course, Yemen must first perfect electrical supply, soon after they rediscover civil society. The opportunity for Solar and storage products throughout the region is very large.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yes. The only problem is:

"What does Germany hope to achieve with an extra 175k BEVs in 2021 and 750k ditto in 2026?"

- I am afraid the answer will be self-cannibalized sales.

Better than someone else eating your lunch

 

[ZachF]

Looks like the Germans don't like LG strongarming.

Nobody does. Overplaying their hand is probably going to cost them a lot in the future too.

 

[Tslynk67]

Your strategy depends on the comission somewhat. It doesn't make sense to roll if each trade cost $20. It also doesn't make sense to sell call, if the call is only worth 60 and comission is 20.

It also depends on your net worth. If this is pocket and was intended as a lottery ticket. Let it come to its conclusion after sec ruling. Otherwise if the $400 amount van be meaningful to your life. Sell and use it to better your life.

If this is meant as options training. Then sell a covered call. As ling as the expirary is on the same date and strike is higher, you are covered and there is nothing to be afraid of.

It's play money, so I don't care to lose it. It cost €125 to buy and I'm looking to sell for €450. Indeed there's €20 on each trade.

Thanks for the sell info, that explains it very clearly and indeed sounds like a smart option.

I don't expect the SEC business to conclude this week, the judge probably needs a few days at least to put something on paper...

 

[humbaba]

I thought this was actually a tolerable article. Is that because Claudia didn't write it?
Could Elon Musk’s rap song actually be good news about Tesla’s quarterly deliveries?
Even the bit about Musk appearing in court isn't really wrong, even if it is just his counsel (they represent him) and for a minimal statement the summary seems fair without being misleading (even if they got the acronym expansion of SEC wrong)

Musk’s more immediate focus will likely be in a Manhattan court hearing Thursday, in which he will square off with the Securities and Exchange Commission over whether he should be held in contempt of court over a February tweet.

 

[KarenRei]

Wait what? Thousands of complaints of Hyundais and Kias catching fire yet I'm just seeing news of it now? Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Translation: author Ryan Beene isn't a hack, unlike a lot of Bloomberg journalists.

 

[Artful Dodger]

SP moving towards daily high at close. Feels like setting up for a 'miss' (after good numbers reported)? Seen that many times before ie: July 2018. Will watch for Adam Janus' / MS 'note to clients' after P&D report.

 

[jhm]

Are you sipping on some Bombay?

And smokin that strong hay

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Waiting for the delivery report .....

Enjoy.

 

[humbaba]

So I've been thinking (uh oh) about this contempt motion by the SEC relating to Musk's immaterial tweet and have come to the inescapable (at least today) conclusion that Cheryl Crumpton is a sleeper agent who has been activated by Elon Musk to undo the machinations of the Eddorians. Yes, while Musk is not an alien he is in fact part of the Arisian breeding program. We can only pray that the Eddorians don't detect the subtle hand of the Arisians here, but Musk is having a hard time playing this game with a poker face, even changing his handle to "Jung Musk" to reflect his standing as a padawan.