Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

The 55k 75D sales generated around $1.1bn gross profit in 2018

Where are you getting gross margins on the 75D? I have trouble believing that the margins on the 75D are that high. There's only 25kWh difference of cells between a 75D and a 100D ($~4-5k), but the difference in price was a lot more than $4-5k, and that difference was pure profit. I have trouble believing that 75D margins were even double digits.

"Downgrading" people to a P3D probably greatly increases margins. It also leaves the remaining S/X line as very high margin.

 

[AZRI11]

Shorty airforce is being replaced by this. Not a photoshop.

 

[AudubonB]

I wonder why he was putin there?

 

[Zaxxon]

'Tesla Bill' offers New Mexico motorists new choice

Really hoping this passes. @tinm and others have been tirelessly working on this issue for years, and I think it's high temp they get local sales & service!

 

[hacer]

The problem isn't that not everyone is getting the message, it's that nobody is. Nobody has any real info on the spoilers. Nobody has ever received an email from Tesla apologizing for it, acknowledging it, or mentioning an ETA. SC staff is completely in the dark and so is every other owner I've spoken to. Granted, it's a free spoiler (now) and it's hardly the end of the world. To me though, it is worrying (and frustrating of course).
I've said this before but if BMW had done this to me I would have stuck my foot so far up the Dealer's behind that he could taste my socks. The fact that people aren't is a testament to how much we like our vehicles and Tesla...but why risk that goodwill when a simple email will resolve a majority of the frustration?

Could it be that the reason no customers know what's going on with spoilers is because nobody at Tesla knows either? You can't write a "simple email" resolving the frustration if you don't have answers to put in the email.

About a year ago I had an experience that I am certain represented Tesla trying to improve communications within the service system. At the time I'd been waiting (patiently - I never pinged them) for a replacement headlight because one of mine was making a small noise while the car was parked and turned off. Service had ordered the part at the time they diagnosed it, but months had gone by. Then I got three calls about it in less than a week from three different people. All of them were calling to let me know that (A) they knew I was waiting for a headlight, (B) it was on order, and (C) they would let me know when it arrived so I could schedule the replacement. None of them came right out and said that they had no ETA, but I asked each one about the ETA. All of them had the same answer which was they didn't know but they would look into it. A little over a month later I got a call to schedule the replacement because the part had arrived. Personally those 3 calls did not help me in any way (nor did they bother me but I found it strange to get so many calls with so little info).

I think the real problem was surely that internally they lacked a predictable means to either procure or manufacture headlights that would be available for service either because the parts had since changed, or all of them were destined for new vehicles or their internal communications was broken.

That's not to say they don't also have problems responding to customers; I've sent email questions to service a few times and have never had any response. Calling has worked but I'd much prefer email.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

ROBERT M. ASKS

In December, Bloomberg reported that Tesla notified holders of the $920M convertible notes due in March that half would be exercised with stock and half would be paid in cash. Can you comment on the payment plan for those convertibles and the accuracy of that report?

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This question should really not be on the list.

There is nothing meaningful for Tesla to comment on with respect to the convertible bonds. The "payment plan" of 50/50 cash/stock is no longer under Tesla's control. Tesla was required to notify the bondholders on December 1st of their intended settlement method (cash, shares, or combination), which only applies if the bondholders elect to exercise their option. If they don't exercise (extremely likely at this point), then 100% of the debt principal will be repaid in cash. Full prospectus here.

 

[Vitold]

CCS cable gate... It isn't a liquid cooling issue apparently:

Huber+Suhner issues statement on liquid-cooled charging cable safety issue

It means that all recalled CSS stations were prototypes. That is a lot of prototypes.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

No idea why they still include wind turbines in their GF renderings. It makes no sense (other than aesthetics) to have a handful of turbines nearby.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Next Wednesday Tesla is going to report their Q4 "cash and cash equivalents" figure, which I expect to be in the $4b range: a bit lower if their capex outflow accelerated, and possibly higher due to two wildcard factors that are impossible to model.

If their capex is higher than expected, to what would you attribute the spending? Early Model Y capex?

 

[Lessmog]

No idea why they still include wind turbines in their GF renderings. It makes no sense (other than aesthetics) to have a handful of turbines nearby.

In a windy spot, why not? (Except for esthetics ...)

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

In a windy spot, why not? (Except for esthetics ...)

Because it's not cost effective and they can power the whole thing with solar + storage. Utility-scale wind projects benefit greatly from economies of scale and being able to amortize fixed costs over hundreds of turbines.

 

[Singuy]

No idea why they still include wind turbines in their GF renderings. It makes no sense (other than aesthetics) to have a handful of turbines nearby.

That's obviously a .."Big Mac" picture. No such thing as blue skies and green grass in China.

 

[Reciprocity]

The average gas price in Germany for the last 12 months was 1.43 EUR (for the more expensive super) and the average consumption for 100km is 7.9 litres:

11.30 EUR (12.88 USD) per 100 km
-> 18.07 EUR for 160 miles
-> 20.61 USD per 100 miles

I very much enjoy your posts, but if your car’s consumption is 50% above the average, your calculation that Model 3 is 16x cheaper to run seems to be more applicable to a minority. It is still fantastic that Model 3 is 10 times (!) cheaper to run than an average ICE car.

Kraftstoff-Durchschnittspreise

Durchschnittsverbrauch in Deutschland zugelassener Pkw | Statistik

Gas is not the only contributing factor. Oil changes and brakes come to mind. 25000 miles is between 5 and 8 oil changes. In comparable car that can cost upwards of $500 alone. At 100k even more work is required with transmission service, belts and more depending on diesel or not.

 

[trils0n]

But it would make no sense to just give up on revenue - unless there is a good reason. It would have to be because
- Tesla thinks there isn't demand for 100k S/X per year or
- Tesla wants to do something else with the battery/floor space etc

Don't know why anyone would buy a S75 when they could get a longer range, more efficient, quicker, better handling, newest tech Model 3 for the same or less price. Model 3 is a better car for the money.

Tesla/Elon arent afraid of stealing their own sales, and the Model S and X lines take up a huge portion of the factory floor. If I had to guess from my trips to the factory, S and X take up more floorspace than 3 despite producing a fraction of the number of units. It would further the mission of sustainable transport, and probably make more money, to phase out S and X in favor of a next gen, high volume, lower cost product like the Y.

Nevada can hardly get enough labor for cell production let alone support a car factory, so I think they'll need to build the Y in Fremont, where labor is available. Cannot do this with S and X taking up space. Might almost be time for Tesla to make the move to kill their popular DVD mailing service and switch to streaming, especially while their competitors are just coming out w/ their DVD mailing services.

 

[Lessmog]

Because it's not cost effective and they can power the whole thing with solar + storage. Utility-scale wind projects benefit greatly from economies of scale and being able to amortize fixed costs over hundreds of turbines.

Alright, that may be correct. But every little bit helps the energy budget in China. A small enterprise I know of* sells PV on roofs to industries for non-trivial amounts per annum, kind of like SolarCity's concept.

* Snyggt, hållbart och enkelt - SolTech Energy

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

There's some great data on the website, thanks for sharing. VIN counting still in my view involves a bit of witchcraft but is potentially useful within wide error margins. Of particular interest is what the data might indicate for margin, once you pull it around a bit.

Glad you like it

BTW I am also tracking DMV registrations in Norway and The Netherlands (updated daily). Includes breakdowns by model/variant and some interactive visualizations which allow you to compare how quarters/years are tracking against prior periods.

 

[Singuy]

I think they are retooling for model Y, and hopefully gain enough new pre-order deposits on the book to offset the decrease revenue of the S/X.

I don't buy this "demand for S/X" falling off a cliff". They reduced the price of the cars by 2k so essentially people who lost out on the tax credit only lost less than 2% of the total cost of the S/X. If you can afford a S/X, then you could care less about a 2% increase in price. Their deliveries are also ramping despite Model 3 sells so obviously the cars are not targeting the same audience.

I don't know how I would feel if this speculation turns out to be true. I want the gigafactory to start pumping out cars already!

 

[BaneBeater]

Model 3 is a better car for the money [than the Model S].

Not for investors.

Tesla misses out on profit every time someone buys a Model 3 who otherwise would have bought a Model S.

 

[Reciprocity]

So is electricity. Not directly proportional but expensive.

Great reason to get solar. Might I offer a solar roof and home battery pack?

 

[BaneBeater]

Might I offer a solar roof

You mean the product announced more than 2 years ago and is installed on less than 100 homes? And, according to Tesla's CapEx projections and recent solar division layoffs/closures, won't be getting mass production in 2019?