Tesla Gigafactory

[AUSinator]

Giga Factory & Lithium Batteries = risky?

I can't speak about you guys however I feel like I'm done with lithium batteries after using them for over a decade in my mobile phones. What a hear is since 5 years or so there is being huge investment in researching new battery technology around the world, with promising results. CEO of Daimler sort of indicated that there will be new batteries coming out maybe this year or it might take several years. But when it does come out they will come out with guns blazing. Then there is VW which purchased 5% of quantumscape. See

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-05/vw-said-to-buy-battery-startup-stake-for-tesla-challange

They reckon they are super close in be able to commercialize the Solid state battery with over 3 times the energy density of the current lithium batteries, last longer, can't burn and have faster recharging.

i know Tesla will be making sometime in the future a new lithium with 31% more energy density but come on that's nothing.

What happens if another battery manufacture partners with another auto manufacture within the next 3 years until the giga factory is built with new batterie tech that will blow Teslas antique lithium out of the water? Considering they patent the new tech around the world. So even if a Tesla wanted to manufacture the new batteries in there giga factory they may be refused. 3 years lots can happen right? I would love to hear your thoughts about this and would tesla have a plan B? I want to order a model 3 but what would happen after waiting 3 years for it to come out and then finding out that there are other EVs on the market already with a superior battery/range. We can not forget the Giga factory is in partnership with Panasonic making the situation more complex for Tesla if such situation would occur. Is Tesla being risky in betting on no new battery tech and would I enter that risk if I would order a model 3? What's are your thoughts?

 

[Zzzz...]

Solid state battery with over 3 times the energy density of the current lithium batteries

Energy density in this context means mostly volumetric density. That means that battery would be very compact, but still heavy. Some claims about better specific energy were made but improvements are not as spectacular.

Solid state in this context is a type of li-ion battery, with solid electrolyte.

And quite general problem for solid state is a operating temperature. Some formulations show optimal performance at >35[SUP]0[/SUP]C and have close to zero chance of working at freezing temperatures. Sure not all are that terrible but there many other parameters(whole bunch of them) that could render particular chemistry as non suitable for an automotive use.

Currently most promising new battery tech is Li-S and silicon anodes. Lots of commercialization efforts and research done. I hope solid state would emerge as competitor in a coming years but it is in a much earlier stage of commercialization as of now.

 

[ScepticMatt]

What happens if another battery manufacture partners with another auto manufacture within the next 3 years until the giga factory is built with new batterie tech that will blow Teslas antique lithium out of the water?

Solid electrolytes are no golden goose. They promise one thing: Higher volumetric energy density. But they have drawbacks, the biggest one being low power density.
As you try to make the interface thicker to increase the power density, solid electrolytes lose much of their advantage.

Currently most promising new battery tech is Li-S and silicon anodes. Lots of commercialization efforts and research done. I hope solid state would emerge as competitor in a coming years but it is in a much earlier stage of commercialization as of now.

Panasonic has been trying to commercialize Si-anodes for a long time. It might even be used for the Gigafactory cells.
Li-S are a very promising technology, and probably be the next big thing in batteries.
But the batteries still die after a few cycles of high C rates, and it won't be mass-market ready in 3 years, not by a long shot.

 

[eepic]

What happens if another battery manufacture partners with another auto manufacture within the next 3 years until the giga factory is built with new batterie tech that will blow Teslas antique lithium out of the water? Considering they patent the new tech around the world. So even if a Tesla wanted to manufacture the new batteries in there giga factory they may be refused. 3 years lots can happen right? I would love to hear your thoughts about this and would tesla have a plan B? I want to order a model 3 but what would happen after waiting 3 years for it to come out and then finding out that there are other EVs on the market already with a superior battery/range. We can not forget the Giga factory is in partnership with Panasonic making the situation more complex for Tesla if such situation would occur. Is Tesla being risky in betting on no new battery tech and would I enter that risk if I would order a model 3? What's are your thoughts?

The way I think about it is scale. Even if some chemistry or technology breakthrough emerges in the lab, it takes time to validate, commercialize, then scale it. The latter step takes years to ramp up to mass production.

With this in mind, remember that the monster Gigafactory at full capacity will allow Tesla to make 400-500k of the very compelling Model 3 vehicle, which is only about 0.5% of the car market. Even if someone makes an even more compelling vehicle it doesn't make the Model 3 any less compelling, they wouldn't be able to produce a ton of them without a huge scale up effort.

Moreover, it would be taking market share from other cars in the market as much as Tesla. Think of the analogy to a dozen people running from a bear - if someone near the front of the pack (Tesla) is overtaken by someone even faster, they're both still fine and it's the laggards in the back that are screwed.

 

[JRP3]

Not to mention that if a new technology proved viable Tesla could replace their current production machines with whatever is required to produce the new cell. Yes it would be costly, but Elon has stated that part of the GF plan is to upgrade and replace equipment as needed over time.

 

[RobStark]

No automaker is going to risk using a new chemistry right way.

Safety and reliability have to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt before installing in mass automobile product.

Or you may be dragged in front of various Congressional committees. Not to mention foreign governments.

If the battery "only" last five years in a smart phone that is perfectly ok. If it overheats in a smart phone two years later it is not a catastrophic result for smart phone maker. It very well could be for Tesla or a legacy OEM's BEV program.

Lab success to mass BEV production is at least 10 years.

Which is why Tesla is amortizing equipment at the GF over 10 years.

 

[chickensevil]

The way I think about it is scale. Even if some chemistry or technology breakthrough emerges in the lab, it takes time to validate, commercialize, then scale it. The latter step takes years to ramp up to mass production.

With this in mind, remember that the monster Gigafactory at full capacity will allow Tesla to make 400-500k of the very compelling Model 3 vehicle, which is only about 0.5% of the car market. Even if someone makes an even more compelling vehicle it doesn't make the Model 3 any less compelling, they wouldn't be able to produce a ton of them without a huge scale up effort.

Moreover, it would be taking market share from other cars in the market as much as Tesla. Think of the analogy to a dozen people running from a bear - if someone near the front of the pack (Tesla) is overtaken by someone even faster, they're both still fine and it's the laggards in the back that are screwed.

You can actually already see this happening with current offerings because there just aren't enough cars out there to satisfy the demand. Hence, the Chevy Volt still sells decent numbers even though the Nissan Leaf is a better car or even the i3 w/REX would truly be a Volt killer (since it is basically a better Volt)... Yet, Volt sales are still holding and growing.

So if someone magically made a *better* Tesla than Tesla, I think Tesla would do just fine, because the car is quite compelling and noone can make enough of them right now to cause competition to take away from each other's sales. Basically there are like 5 million buyers and only about 1 million cars (as an example), If someone comes along with something *else* but can only make 2 million of them, there is *still* the original 1 million happy owners and 3 million untapped potential.

Until we get EV sales into the 10s of millions I don't think we have to worry about someone making a better Tesla than Tesla and it hurting their sales.

 

[VolkerP]

I want to order a model 3 but what would happen after waiting 3 years for it to come out and then finding out that there are other EVs on the market already with a superior battery/range.

The best thing for you is to not order a model 3 yet. Which is not a problem, since Tesla hasn't opened the order queue and probably won't before 2017 for U.S., 2018 for down under.

If everyone and his dog passes you in a model 3 in the year 2019, it is safe to order. You will acquire a valid product for good money.

 

[igotzzoom]

The best thing for you is to not order a model 3 yet. Which is not a problem, since Tesla hasn't opened the order queue and probably won't before 2017 for U.S., 2018 for down under.

If everyone and his dog passes you in a model 3 in the year 2019, it is safe to order. You will acquire a valid product for good money.

For that matter, we haven't even seen an official concept or prototype of the Model 3.

 

[DrGuest]

I can't speak about you guys however I feel like I'm done with lithium batteries after using them for over a decade in my mobile phones. What a hear is since 5 years or so there is being huge investment in researching new battery technology around the world, with promising results. CEO of Daimler sort of indicated that there will be new batteries coming out maybe this year or it might take several years. But when it does come out they will come out with guns blazing. Then there is VW which purchased 5% of quantumscape. See

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...buy-battery-startup-stake-for-tesla-challange

They reckon they are super close in be able to commercialize the Solid state battery with over 3 times the energy density of the current lithium batteries, last longer, can't burn and have faster recharging.

i know Tesla will be making sometime in the future a new lithium with 31% more energy density but come on that's nothing.

What happens if another battery manufacture partners with another auto manufacture within the next 3 years until the giga factory is built with new batterie tech that will blow Teslas antique lithium out of the water? Considering they patent the new tech around the world. So even if a Tesla wanted to manufacture the new batteries in there giga factory they may be refused. 3 years lots can happen right? I would love to hear your thoughts about this and would tesla have a plan B? I want to order a model 3 but what would happen after waiting 3 years for it to come out and then finding out that there are other EVs on the market already with a superior battery/range. We can not forget the Giga factory is in partnership with Panasonic making the situation more complex for Tesla if such situation would occur. Is Tesla being risky in betting on no new battery tech and would I enter that risk if I would order a model 3? What's are your thoughts?

I remember Elon saying that the "battery Industry" is just full of ideas, hopeful claims and most are just "BS", he said more than most industries. He has been quoted as saying that if any "new battery" tech company can show him a working battery instead of just a "power point slideshow" he would be interested in seeing it. His educational specialty is "Battery storage" so he will use the best proven tech he can find, and right now it's Lithium Ion. If something truly better comes a long, he will be all over it, I believe.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I can't speak about you guys however I feel like I'm done with lithium batteries after using them for over a decade in my mobile phones. What a hear is since 5 years or so there is being huge investment in researching new battery technology around the world, with promising results. CEO of Daimler sort of indicated that there will be new batteries coming out maybe this year or it might take several years. But when it does come out they will come out with guns blazing. Then there is VW which purchased 5% of quantumscape. See

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...buy-battery-startup-stake-for-tesla-challange

They reckon they are super close in be able to commercialize the Solid state battery with over 3 times the energy density of the current lithium batteries, last longer, can't burn and have faster recharging.

i know Tesla will be making sometime in the future a new lithium with 31% more energy density but come on that's nothing.

What happens if another battery manufacture partners with another auto manufacture within the next 3 years until the giga factory is built with new batterie tech that will blow Teslas antique lithium out of the water? Considering they patent the new tech around the world. So even if a Tesla wanted to manufacture the new batteries in there giga factory they may be refused. 3 years lots can happen right? I would love to hear your thoughts about this and would tesla have a plan B? I want to order a model 3 but what would happen after waiting 3 years for it to come out and then finding out that there are other EVs on the market already with a superior battery/range. We can not forget the Giga factory is in partnership with Panasonic making the situation more complex for Tesla if such situation would occur. Is Tesla being risky in betting on no new battery tech and would I enter that risk if I would order a model 3? What's are your thoughts?

Wont matter.

1) A Lithium Ion battery is still a battery even after its capacity is reduced. Even if new technology is released that is superior to lithium Ion batteries, it won't happen until 2017 or 2018 at the earliest. Lithium ion batteries will still be used for many years after a superior battery chemistry is released, even if a magical new way to store energy is developed, and mass produced, because a battery is still a battery, even after its capacity is reduced.

2) If a Lithium Ion batteries can be used to make an EV with 500 miles of range, that can receive a full charge in 10-20 minutes, as Elon has stated he plans to, the range and cost of Ion batteries range will be good enough for most people. Also, the batteries in Tesla vehicles will still be worth a significant amount after the life of the vehicle.

3) Think about rechargeable batteries in cameras. How many people still use cameras that rely on AA or AAA batteries? How many years has it been since cameras were developed that used rechargeable batteries that could be recharged thousands of times and still work?

4) With Residential battery storage units, the primary deciding factors are cost and utility. I don't think most people care if they use a magical new storage technology or lithium ion batteries as long as the technology is safe, the price makes sense, and the technology provides the utility promised. Aesthetics, size, and brand are relevant, but for most people are likely secondary considerations.

5) If a magical new battery that costs half of what Tesla's batteries cost and is twice as capable as Tesla's batteries is released in 2018, it won't replace most lithium ion batteries for at least 10+ years.

6) The partnership Tesla has with Panasonic is very strong. According to Panasonic, Tesla played a significant role in saving Panasonic. Panasonic is being conservative with how much money it contractually commits to Tesla because it has to. Panasonic can't afford to be excessively risky with how it spends/invests its cash.

 

[igotzzoom]

I remember Elon saying that the "battery Industry" is just full of ideas, hopeful claims and most are just "BS", he said more than most industries. He has been quoted as saying that if any "new battery" tech company can show him a working battery instead of just a "power point slideshow" he would be interested in seeing it. His educational specialty is "Battery storage" so he will use the best proven tech he can find, and right now it's Lithium Ion. If something truly better comes a long, he will be all over it, I believe.

The robustness and reliability required of an EV battery is probably one of the most challenging environments conceivable. It needs to withstand multiple charge and discharge cycles, be thermally stable, and be able to withstand the shocks and vibrations inherent in a car. It's one thing to have something that performs awesome in the controlled conditions of a test laboratory, it's altogether another matter to have it perform well in the rigors of real-world testing.

 

[pairtrader]

Some photos of the GF progress. Apologies if this has already been posted.
Tesla Gigafactory Images Via Tesla Board Member Steve Jurvetson

 

[VolkerP]

speculation on timeline

here is the original timeline as published in the blog entry on the GF:

I start from a few assumptions
- first building part is 20% (see Elon's tweet)
- the project is done in 5 parts
- the "construction" phase of the following parts is shortened because grading and supply lines are already done
- after the first "equipment installation" and "production launch" phases, these will be shortened too (learning effect)

So I arrive at this timeline up to 2020 for full production:

+ the teams for every phase will hop to the same work on the next part

what do you think?

 

[Johan]

here is the original timeline as published in the blog entry on the GF:

I start from a few assumptions
- first building part is 20% (see Elon's tweet)
- the project is done in 5 parts
- the "construction" phase of the following parts is shortened because grading and supply lines are already done
- after the first "equipment installation" and "production launch" phases, these will be shortened too (learning effect)

So I arrive at this timeline up to 2020 for full production:

+ the teams for every phase will hop to the same work on the next part

what do you think?

I think this is an excellent analysis! I also like your very nice graphic.

The first question that comes to mind for me is how those "5 parts" (the different colours in your diagram) relate to eachother in size. I would think there would be some progression size-vice i.e. part 2 is larger than part 1, part 3 larger than 2 etc. So, if there are actually 5 distinguishable parts/steps, how much of the finally built factory will each part make up? Surely not 20% per part at least.

 

[Zzzz...]

Li-S are a very promising technology, and probably be the next big thing in batteries.
But the batteries still die after a few cycles of high C rates, and it won't be mass-market ready in 3 years, not by a long shot.

OXIS just tweeted and here is quotes from press release:

"battery technology offers energy density greater than 300Wh/kg" <--they claiming it is available today.
"product, which will be launched in two to three years, is expected to successfully achieve 2,000 cycles before the capacity reduces to 80 per cent of its beginning of life (BoL)"

link

But I agree it wount be ready for mass production even in 3 years from now. OXIS aiming availability of 400Wh/kg cells by 2016 btw.

- - - Updated - - -

 

[AudubonB]

Regarding the <chart? table? cartoon?> that Zzzz just posted, I would like to see any Temperature Tolerance parameters to include minima, not just maxima. Li-Ion technology performs unsatisfactorily in the cold and as such, too much of its stored energy needs be devoted to heat-tempering a pack which does, of course, significantly reduce vehicular range.

 

[Zzzz...]

Regarding the <chart? table? cartoon?> that Zzzz just posted, I would like to see any Temperature Tolerance parameters to include minima, not just maxima. Li-Ion technology performs unsatisfactorily in the cold and as such, too much of its stored energy needs be devoted to heat-tempering a pack which does, of course, significantly reduce vehicular range.

Speaking of the devil (the mighty SOLID STATE 3X energy density Li-ion!!!) I replied originally... This is exact problem with solid state batteries: at what temperature they have a chance to work at? Let me quote myself:

quite general problem for solid state is a operating temperature. Some formulations show optimal performance at >35[SUP]0[/SUP]C and have close to zero chance of working at freezing temperatures. Sure not all are that terrible but there many other parameters(whole bunch of them) that could render particular chemistry as non suitable for an automotive use.

When that guy came here (probably with best intentions) and started to imply that adding 31% energy density is NOTHING (link) I have tried to educate the guy about the field. I was very gentle. People who know nothing about the field often confuse specific energy with volumetric density one. Or even worse, quite a lot confuse energy with power(kWh with KW etc). One way or another I would love to see more info from OXIS about their cells, not only on that parameter(temperature) but on many many other ones. Too many to list I guess.

Miraculous solid state batteries are the future and could be deployed in no time some think. But there are no silver bullets popping up in next few years. For example, the company named Boston Power got $250M investment(link). How "advanced" BP cells are? 207 Wh/kg. That do not look like something that is worth investing quarter billion $$$ into. After all Tesla is using 265 Wh/kg cells from Panasonic, correct? And rest in the industry are even worse, they don't want to produce current cells never mind miraculous ones...

But people who are in position to invest quarter billion are not stupid. And 207 Wh/kg tech is more than valuable at the moment. And Boston Power cells would be valuable for many years to come.

PS. EDIT: modified post to clear some misunderstanding with AudubonB, it was cleared using PMs

 

[AudubonB]

Thanks...although I'm confused as to why you think I expressed any kind of opinion other than my note about Li-Ion's low-t limitation....

 

[eepic]

I like how under safety it says "poor reputation" rather than a factual comparison lol. Qualitative descriptors aside, what about cost per kWH of their technology?