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Everything JB said make sense to me, including his predictions. That puts him in a special group which holds Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Charlie Munger, and Peter Lynch. In addition, JB is the top expert in battery and energy management. There is no counterpart for him at Apple.Haha
No disrespect towards JB Straubel intended. JB's closest counterpart at Apple would probably be Johny Srouji, the SVP in charge of Apple's custom silicon (like the A9 chip that powers the current generation of iOS devices), batteries, and other specialized hardware.
Hmmm. Ok then it must be this reason: http://www.teslasociety.com/exhibition.htmNiagara long lines bypass Buffalo and go far east downstate. 2.7 GW plus 2.3 GW on Canada side leave the area. NF NY is in dire conditions overall and most factory jobs and lifestyle is gone.
JB is closer to a Wos who didn't leave. he is great on the technical side and is now owning more and more of the management side too.Haha
No disrespect towards JB Straubel intended. JB's closest counterpart at Apple would probably be Johny Srouji, the SVP in charge of Apple's custom silicon (like the A9 chip that powers the current generation of iOS devices), batteries, and other specialized hardware.
Hi, vortexz!Hey can anyone tell me on what website I could register and buy some tesla shares ?
sorry, I am a newbie
How many of those 15 firms would see the same synergies as Tesla is seeing? I guess 0. Nobody shoulde be surprised to see those 15 (or whatever amount) walk away from a deal, and their walking away should not be seen as a sign that SolarCity is in trouble.WSJ article on SolarCity yesterday provided a lot of points an investor should be aware of. Like the immediate need of cash scty has. Like the 15 firms walked away. Don't you need to know this?
On the OpEx side, they guided 20% higher in H2 compared to H1. H1 had on average 434M per quarter. So, we're looking at 521M OpEx here. Then there's another ~40-50M of interest loss. So Tesla needs ~565M in gross profit to break even.
Last two quarters had 336.5M in gross profit on average. Adding your optimistic case of 150M, that's 486.5M, still missing 80M for break even. Under your assumption, they need 9000 more cars or 24k to break even non-GAAP in Q3.
And I don't think they can achieve 22% GM in Q3. Low margin 60 is in Q3 while high margin 100 is not. They have been doing just a little over 20% on GM in the past 3 quarters and I don't see it can increase to 22% with a shift towards lower margin cars, even considering they may have improvements on COGS. ASP will be lower too. And then you throw in all the promotions we're seeing, I would say using 20% as overall GM and ASP of 90k may be more realistic. So, in the 6000 additional car situation, it will bring in 108M of gross profit. At 21k cars gross profit is 378M, resulting in a 187M loss. To break even, they need 31k delivered, which is impossible. Even if I am more generous and optimistic to go with 22% GM and 95k ASP, that's 27k deliveries required.
So all in all, I don't think there's a reason to get any hope of non-GAAP profitability in Q3. It's not even an illusion.
What if Tesla were to go ape *sugar* and have a fire sale, clearing out inventory cars (I think that's the right term) which were built and expensed in a previous quarter?
I think, at least for this quarter, delivery numbers will be as crucial as revenue and earnings. I think 24,000 is the number that makes me feel comfortable they will hit 50,000 for the 2nd half of 2016. I also think 24,000 will surprise Wall Street and lead to a 20%+ pop over current levels.
I think, at least for this quarter, delivery numbers will be as crucial as revenue and earnings. I think 24,000 is the number that makes me feel comfortable they will hit 50,000 for the 2nd half of 2016. I also think 24,000 will surprise Wall Street and lead to a 20%+ pop over current levels.
My calculations are including these fire sales. Still need 27k delivery. Unless they did wonders on GM in Q3, or somehow secretly sold a huge bunch of TE. Another case is they did not increase opex as guided. But I doubt it since they have been opening stores and buulding SC at a much higher rateWhat if Tesla were to go ape *sugar* and have a fire sale, clearing out inventory cars (I think that's the right term) which were built and expensed in a previous quarter?
My calculations are including these fire sales. Still need 27k delivery. Unless they did wonders on GM in Q3, or somehow secretly sold a huge bunch of TE. Another case is they did not increase opex as guided. But I doubt it since they have been opening stores and buulding SC at a much higher rate
Hi Al,In my area, the cost savings, for at least the quarter, appears to be a delay in opening SCs in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cherry Hill, NJ.
The delayed payment is interesting. But how does it affect profitability? It's not recorded until they send out the check? It does have direct impact on cash flow I think. But compared to capex, it's just a drop in the bucket. Btw, I really hope they do not delay capex to engineer FCF+ this quarter. That would jeopardize M3 too much.In my area, the cost savings, for at least the quarter, appears to be a delay in opening SCs in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cherry Hill, NJ. The delays *could* be zoning but from what Hear ( *rumor *) I suspect it is to help cash flow. This is a tough decision as by delaying it might hurt deliveries in this area making Devon, PA push out a large number of vehicles.
A personal experience: While it is a small amount of $ individually, I turned in my first S under the GRV program (not as a trade but for cash). The car was inspected by a TM hired third party appraiser 10 days before turn in: Turn in date: August 17th.....Payment to me NOT made at the time of turn in but comes from HQ: After inquiring several times it appears that the check will be issued in 7 business days.
Yes, this is in this quarter, but I was the first at my local SC to turn in a car under the GRV, so I expect more over the next coming weeks that might very well have payment delayed into Q4.