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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Well, I think there is to much uncertainty after the SEC filing of the merger document, and the shorts are trying to benefit from that.

IMHO it is time for Tesla to start sharing the reasoning for the SCTY acquisition and share their TE-2.0 plans.

Something like this?

"We are buying Solarcity because they have lost access to capital markets. A failure of Solarcity will call into question Elon's strategy, and may then also threaten Tesla's access to capital. At a minimum a failure of solarcity would increase Tesla's cost of capital. TSLA shareholders are better off avoiding SCTY failure."

The institutional TSLA shareholders get it. The spin of the merger being a "good idea" is for the masses. It's a necessity in a bad situation.

TSLA shareholders may not like it, but opposition is potentially suicidal.
 
Something like this?

"We are buying Solarcity because they have lost access to capital markets. A failure of Solarcity will call into question Elon's strategy, and may then also threaten Tesla's access to capital. At a minimum a failure of solarcity would increase Tesla's cost of capital. TSLA shareholders are better off avoiding SCTY failure."

The institutional TSLA shareholders get it. The spin of the merger being a "good idea" is for the masses. It's a necessity in a bad situation.

TSLA shareholders may not like it, but opposition is potentially suicidal.

This is where it gets really messy. Space X has bought Solar City bonds in the past. All three companies are already linked to each other. Problems at SCTY or Space X will impact TSLA as well.

This is why Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been buying up SolarCity’s bonds
 
Straight up capitulation. Stop losses getting murdered. The bottom should be in soon. This place is surprisingly quiet and calm right now.

I know right? People calmly discussing merger philosophy. This trading makes me happy since it does indeed smell like the capitulation we needed. This too will pass, and maybe soon now.
 
So, this looks very similar to yesterday's trading. I cant help but think that with the additional shares available to short, short sellers modus operandi is to recycle these shares available by piling on in the morning in hopes to stoke fear and trigger the loss stop orders, then cover what was shorted during the day in an orderly manner (mostly), and then rinse and repeat during the next day. The game is that am push down is more steep and deep than recovery during the covering.

Here is how the shares available to short looked this am, as compared to the TSLA chart (bottom is at 10:36am):
EDIT: date should read 9/1/2016
Snap1.png


Snap2.png
 
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I said all along Musk needs to resign from one of the companies. He will be dealing with this latest incident for a long time. A loss of vehicle and payload during a static fire? Yikes.

It's not a question of split time. It's an issue of managing manufacturing. He needs to step back, not get more involved.

I have a close relative, an engineer, who was recruited by spacex for his manufacturing expertise. He found a bizarre culture and an unprofessional manufacturing process. Musk can't retain talented engineers because people with great job choices don't want to work for him. So he ends up with MBA's making critical engineering choices.

Spacex doesn't know why the first rocket blew up. Musk finally recognized their disorganization after the first event.
 
So, this looks very similar to yesterday's trading. I cant help but think that with the additional shares available to short, short sellers modus operandi is to recycle these shares available by piling on in the morning in hopes to stoke fear and trigger the loss stop orders, then cover what was shorted during the day in an orderly manner (mostly), and then rinse and repeat during the next day. The game is that am push down is more steep and deep than recovery during the covering.

Here is how the shares available to short looked this am, as compared to the TSLA chart (bottom is at 10:36am):
EDIT: date should read 9/1/2016
View attachment 192450

View attachment 192451
Ugh...more short selling info. Nothing personal just do t think it matters.
 
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Well, I think there is to much uncertainty after the SEC filing of the merger document, and the shorts are trying to benefit from that.

IMHO it is time for Tesla to start sharing the reasoning for the SCTY acquisition and share their TE-2.0 plans.

It's the opposite Gearardf, there is absolute certainty that the cost of capital is going to soar like a rocket. And while this unfortunate SpaceX incident (symptom) provides convenient optics, the calculus is clear and the math doesn't lie. TSLA needs an amount, form and cost of capital that few can provide. The banks and bond holders now have TSLAs head in a vice grip. It's time for plan B. Hello AAPL JV.....cash, quality control, supply chain management etc.

Disclosure: I have no position in TSLA, nor do I intend to, and I want to see their transformational impact thrive.
 
It's the opposite Gearardf, there is absolute certainty that the cost of capital is going to soar like a rocket. And while this unfortunate SpaceX incident (symptom) provides convenient optics, the calculus is clear and the math doesn't lie. TSLA needs an amount, form and cost of capital that few can provide. The banks and bond holders now have TSLAs head in a vice grip. It's time for plan B. Hello AAPL JV.....cash, quality control, supply chain management etc.

Disclosure: I have no position in TSLA, nor do I intend to, and I want to see their transformational impact thrive.
I disagree. TSLA has not had any issue whatsoever accessing the capital markets and the acquisition of a (relatively) small company with probable capital markets issues will not change that. TSLA has demonstrable demand and good market share. SCTY has demonstrable stable cash flows coming in. Once the SCTY sales costs are controlled (layoffs and using existing Tesla stores) everything should be fine.
 
I disagree. TSLA has not had any issue whatsoever accessing the capital markets and the acquisition of a (relatively) small company with probable capital markets issues will not change that. TSLA has demonstrable demand and good market share. SCTY has demonstrable stable cash flows coming in. Once the SCTY sales costs are controlled (layoffs and using existing Tesla stores) everything should be fine.

I'm running out the door, but would like to discuss further. I don't disgaree with your premise but I don't see the full demonstrable support you see. The math is very tough to foot, but I'm open. Good discussion to be had.
 
The first 3 Falcon 1's failed. Elon put up his last dollars to make the 4th one happen, (at the same time as he put a bunch of money into Tesla to make sure it survived long enough to get Roadsters out). 4th launch of Falcon 1 was a success, and gained SpaceX commercial customers.

Falcon 9 is a derived but unique design. It isn't fair to count failures of an early design with those of a mature design.

CRS-1 in October 2012 was the partial failure. It launched to ISS with a secondary payload for another customer which was to be sent to a higher trajectory. During ascent, one of the 9 engines lost fuel pressure and was shut down. This necessitated a longer burn on the remaining 8 engines, and left the rocket with less fuel than it otherwise would have had. NASA required greater-than-99% probability that the secondary payload would reach its orbit clear of the ISS, and nixed the secondary mission. SpaceX believes it could have successfully achieved it. NASA made the call to abort the secondary mission, as their mission took priority.

CRS-7 in June 2015 was the only total vehicle failure of Falcon 9. A strut inside the LOX tank which holds a helium tank inside gave way, and caused a failure of the LOX tank when it collided with the LOX tank pressure vessel, resulting in a RUD during ascent.

Reports coming in now seem to suggest it was a pad anomaly, and not a vehicle anomaly that resulted in today's problem. Rockets by their very nature have a lot of boom stored. Bad things happening in the vicinity will cascade.

Was this Falcon 9 in the middle of being static fired? Reason I ask is that it's unclear to me from media reports whether the rocket engines were on or off.

Thx
 
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