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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Cheat sheet from Cary’s update:

Over 238.13>246.68 [take profits/observe] >259.91>269.17>Short

A close below 237.99>230.61>218.53>if holds then back up to 259/269 converging.

IMG_3941.jpeg
 
I am going to let my $237.5 and my $240 contracts go since I need to diversify and I don't want to work anymore and Tesla is way too volatile for my piece of mind. I will sell more shares in the $260-250 and then just keep like 20% of my Tesla shares for the long run. Watch it go straight to $300 after I do that 🫡 .
We appreciate your sacrifice for the greater good...
 
The numbers were good, the stock is dropping though. I guess I'm missing something.
Everything pulled-back by the looks of it, sell the news?

In any case, TSLA is in very overbought territory right now, so anything can happen, and probably will*

* to quote the late, great Murray Walker
 
"someone" is really working hard trying to keep the SP from rising.....

edit: looks like there's a flat spot where they got ran over at least for now. this seems like the "old days" where the SP would get suppressed into Friday and then pop early the following week-we'll see
 
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Yeah, I looked at some of the trades and it was 10c - 20c premium per week, but close to zero risk, maybe if I sold out of everything into cash then it would work

Of course the issue with that approach is that you miss out on any big upside move in the stock, but conversely you don't really care about the downside moves either, assuming your spreads are wide enough

I still think the idea scenario is to be in 50% shares/50% cash and sell weekly $1 puts and calls, I didn't back-test, but my gut feeling is that 90% of the time they would work out, OK: expire or far enough from the strike to roll comfortably

But it's arriving at that bit pot of shares and cash that's not so easy... even at ATH back in 2021, I didn't have much cash, it was all in shares and LEAPS, which devalued very fast when the stock crashed

Now my "poor man's" solution is to play what I would term "Calendar Condors" (I made that up), so the long legs are 3 - 6 months out, the short legs weekly, already explained this, but I'd be looking for a long position with 50c per week value to sell $1 against, look to double the money and bonus points if the SP moves decisively in one direction to close out the long for 2x - 3x initial cost
Guess this is the famous iron condor stragedy where you goes way out of the money doing both call and put spread. The higher chance of winning the more you have to put down for margin. To make sufficient money you would need some high margin or equities since ratio of win to lost is 1:10. But winning probablity is like 90%. Dumb dog me just talking out of his ass again :)
 
Guess this is the famous iron condor stragedy where you goes way out of the money doing both call and put spread. The higher chance of winning the more you have to put down for margin. To make sufficient money you would need some high margin or equities since ratio of win to lost is 1:10. But winning probablity is like 90%. Dumb dog me just talking out of his ass again :)
Well I'm always playing both sides of the stock price, but I'm a serial offender when it comes to writing too close to the money, and that's brought on by thinking you have some idea on the future stock direction, accompanies by unexpected large moves in the opposite direction

The idea with $1 strikes is that you'll nearly always be able to roll that in time as there will be a decent gap between the current price and the strike, and even if these types of OTM position go ITM, they won't go AS ITM as an OTM strike

I just need to stop thinking I know what I'm doing and play the odds better

As for today: BTC 100x -c220 @18.9 - I missed the first dip, but caught the second & STO 100x 11/17 -c250 @$3.1

So in pre-market looked like I might be sitting on $200k realised losses on this calls, it was "just" $150k and I took $30k back on the -c250's

I now have 215x -c250 for next week, but am OK to let the underlying sell on 160x, which are 100x March 2024 +c240's & 60x December 2025 +c200 -> the 200's I stupidly wrote when we were previously in the 270's after selling some +c140's, so I'm just looking to get my money back on those, the +c240's can sell at $250 for +200%, the -c200's need $270, but will roll up from $250 if needed, if we drop back, going to keep with the $1 - $2 weeklies

I'm finding LEAPs too stressful TBH, will look to start acquiring shares instead
 
This is the first time I've seen such a fight at a resistance. Usually the bulls just run the bears over with incessant call buying and push it higher and higher all day. Today I can see that the bulls are coming out swinging with their gamma stick but 242 still holds. No comment.

EDIT: maybe they're waiting for reinforcement from macros?
Bear will be defeated today as Macro is regaining steam. Should break and hold soon I think...
 
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This is the first time I've seen such a fight at a resistance. Usually the bulls just run the bears over with incessant call buying and push it higher and higher all day. Today I can see that the bulls are coming out swinging with their gamma stick but 242 still holds. No comment.

EDIT: maybe they're waiting for reinforcement from macros?

Intermediate target $246 or hold for $260 area?
 
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