Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[kpanda17]

There is a parts content threshold. Some legislators have pushed to increased the tariff on vehicles with a low North American parts content.
That would make it harder to rebox it.

There would be less concern about Chinese companies _actually_ manufacturing in Mexico.

smart, but could hurt GM and the Mex built Equinox
think it will have to be USA corp, USMCA manufactured and then the percent content, as per your note
Tesla, GM, Ford would all work with this, but would block BYD

 

[David_Cary]

Doesn't BYD just need to make contributions in the right places to tweak the rules just enough?
Or can they just partner with Stellantis or someone?
How does this effect VW?

I would have little expectation that potential profits can be reasonably stopped. They can buy the right people to influence the right people. Think of the average intelligence of members of congress. Add that in with their ethics/greed.

I would think that labor content is down significantly with EVs and a new factory. So who cares if the plant is in Arkansas, Mexico or China? It takes a really strong protectionist and ICE positive legislation to fight that - meaning that BYD will just put the factory in Arkansas. The labor cost isn't much more that Mexico or China when you don't need that much labor. I am thinking per car could be $500 in Mexico/China vs $1500 in Arkansas (and I supposed it could be half that). The manufacturers on both sides have to be loving the environment/jobs in swing states conflict.

It seems like Mexico and China's labor rates are pretty close if google can be trusted.

If the stakes weren't so high, it would be all an interesting to watch.

 

[cwerdna]

I would think that labor content is down significantly with EVs and a new factory. So who cares if the plant is in Arkansas, Mexico or China? It takes a really strong protectionist and ICE positive legislation to fight that - meaning that BYD will just put the factory in Arkansas. The labor cost isn't much more that Mexico or China when you don't need that much labor. I am thinking per car could be $500 in Mexico/China vs $1500 in Arkansas (and I supposed it could be half that). The manufacturers on both sides have to be loving the environment/jobs in swing states conflict.

It seems like Mexico and China's labor rates are pretty close if google can be trusted.

I think you're pretty far off on your comparison of Mexico vs. US wages. The below has some 2022 figures. Of course, there was the UAW strike recently that will make US figures higher than these.
https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2022/02/04/gm-mexico-plant-union-silao-assembly-truck-costs/6648110001/

GM Factory Workers in Mexico Get a 25-Cent Raise to $3.25 an Hour

The labor union at Silao, where Chevy and GMC pickups are built, agreed on a contract that pays an average of $2 more per day.

jalopnik.com

"With this latest raise, the average pay for GM factory workers making trucks in Mexico will go from around $25 to $27 per day. That’s in contrast to GM workers in the U.S., who make anywhere from $18 to $32 per hour."

So, figure probably ~8x the cost in the US vs. Mexico.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ar-brunt-price-war-fallout-widens-2023-09-05/ is from late 2023:
"A Reuters analysis of the estimated income included in recent job adverts from 30 auto firms showed hourly salaries of 14 yuan ($1.93) to 31 yuan ($4.27), with Tesla, SAIC-GM, Li Auto (2015.HK), opens new tab and Xpeng (9868.HK), opens new tab at the higher end."

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Doesn't BYD just need to make contributions in the right places to tweak the rules just enough?
Or can they just partner with Stellantis or someone?
How does this effect VW?

I would have little expectation that potential profits can be reasonably stopped. They can buy the right people to influence the right people. Think of the average intelligence of members of congress. Add that in with their ethics/greed.

I would think that labor content is down significantly with EVs and a new factory. So who cares if the plant is in Arkansas, Mexico or China? It takes a really strong protectionist and ICE positive legislation to fight that - meaning that BYD will just put the factory in Arkansas. The labor cost isn't much more that Mexico or China when you don't need that much labor. I am thinking per car could be $500 in Mexico/China vs $1500 in Arkansas (and I supposed it could be half that). The manufacturers on both sides have to be loving the environment/jobs in swing states conflict.

It seems like Mexico and China's labor rates are pretty close if google can be trusted.

If the stakes weren't so high, it would be all an interesting to watch.

If it's 18 to 35 hours to assemble, that's $18 to $35 per extra $1/hour for labor.

But, that's just final assembly. There's labor in the parts manufacturing as well.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If it's 18 to 35 hours to assemble, that's $18 to $35 per extra $1/hour for labor.

I should add, there are also _other_ labor costs on top of wages.