How will US Presidential elections affect TSLA?

[kenliles]

Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to Lead EPA Transition

 

[Grendal]

Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to Lead EPA Transition

Which is just making the USA look even more like a bunch of yahoos to even consider the The Presidential Apprentice candidate.

Personal opinion aside and back on topic, I can see that if this EPA person gets into office you can be certain that any and all support for EVs, EREVs, wind, and solar will dry up as fast as they can push the legislation through. It will be open warfare on anything considered "green."

 

[jbcarioca]

clinton foundation

So you support her because the Clinton Foundation does so much good work in disease prevention and helping medical care for the poorest people. The Clinton Foundation is so respected that Donald Trump gave them $100,000.
Is that what you meant? It must have been.

 

[jbcarioca]

To return to the topic:
Trump proposals would allow direct expensing of capital expenditures so a rapidly expanding capital intensive company like Tesla would have no federal income tax until the growth stopped. Further, despite possible animosity to solar power and a EV's (he's no official positions n these, although he has declared dislike for wind power) he still is seriously pro-American manufacturing and Tesla most certainly qualifies as American made.

Clinton proposals would be major benefits to Tesla because of proposals for renewable energy and anything that promotes that. However, her proposals on corporate taxation are unlikely to otherwise benefit Tesla, compensated by probable increases and extensions for EV incentives.

My personal guess is that both of them would side with the FTC on manfacturer direct sales. For different reasons I think they both would fight for that. Despite some speculation otherwise none of the prohibiting States have had strong support of Trump despite most of them being Establishment Republicans (nexcept for Rick Snyder, of course)

On balance the only major risk to either candidate probably would come from trade retaliation. China and the EU might be major impediments to increased US motor vehicle imports if he managed to implement his trade proposals. That could cost something approaching 40% of Tesla sales.

 

[kort677]

So you support her because the Clinton Foundation does so much good work in disease prevention and helping medical care for the poorest people. The Clinton Foundation is so respected that Donald Trump gave them $100,000.
Is that what you meant? It must have been.

bwhahahahaha, it's sad to see how misinformed you are


Moderator Edit: FINAL warning. End it, now.

 

[wdolson]

To return to the topic:
Trump proposals would allow direct expensing of capital expenditures so a rapidly expanding capital intensive company like Tesla would have no federal income tax until the growth stopped. Further, despite possible animosity to solar power and a EV's (he's no official positions n these, although he has declared dislike for wind power) he still is seriously pro-American manufacturing and Tesla most certainly qualifies as American made.

However he could be such a destabilizing figure that the entire economy could become unstable and we'd experience another big crash which would take out a lot of start ups like Tesla.

If Tesla has paid any federal income tax to date, it's been minimal. They only turned a profit one quarter thus far and they have run a lot of red ink. Even if Tesla starts turning a profit with the M3, they will be writing off the losses from all the start up activity for a few years to come. I doubt under the existing tax code Tesla would own much in federal income tax before 2020.

Trump is also capricious and may try to hurt states that didn't vote for him, so he may not do much that would help a California company.

Clinton proposals would be major benefits to Tesla because of proposals for renewable energy and anything that promotes that. However, her proposals on corporate taxation are unlikely to otherwise benefit Tesla, compensated by probable increases and extensions for EV incentives.

My personal guess is that both of them would side with the FTC on manfacturer direct sales. For different reasons I think they both would fight for that. Despite some speculation otherwise none of the prohibiting States have had strong support of Trump despite most of them being Establishment Republicans (nexcept for Rick Snyder, of course)

On balance the only major risk to either candidate probably would come from trade retaliation. China and the EU might be major impediments to increased US motor vehicle imports if he managed to implement his trade proposals. That could cost something approaching 40% of Tesla sales.

At absolute worst, I would say Hillary would be net neutral for Tesla. She would nominate someone to replace Scalia who is at least a little left leaning (if Garland isn't voted in first) and if any case regarding the states blocking Tesla sales reached the supremes it would probably turn out better for Tesla.

If she gets a friendlier congress, she might be able to push through some legislation that would help green energy and alternatives in general, which would help Tesla. But it all depends on how many seats in congress the Democrats can pick up for that to happen. It looks likely we will have a Republican congress (at least one house) which means we could see another 4-8 years of obstruction like we've seen.

I think Tesla will get around any potential blocks to sales overseas by building factories in China and Europe. There is a lot of interest in Tesla opening plants overseas.

When the US forced Japan to start making cars in the US, everyone discovered that it's a lot cheaper to make cars nearer where they are sold than to ship them over seas and most car makers built plants in countries where a lot of their cars were sold. Not only was it cheaper, but it bought goodwill from those county's customers too. Tesla will eventually do this, but right now they aren't quite big enough to do that.

 

[McRat]

Who is in office doesn't matter near as much as who paid to put them there, and who continues to wet their beaks once in place.

The majority of elected government officials vote on laws based on who gives them the most money. This is a documented fact. Many are over 90% for sale.

Ignore campaign promises and rhetoric. Watch what they actually DO, not what they say they do or want to do.

That's what I like about our governor in California. Sure, he is for sale, but he doesn't pretend he's not for sale. He's a hypocrite who admits he's one, unlike our Calif US Senators to try to pretend they aren't for sale when in fact, they seldom even remember who they actually represent, the citizens of California, not their donors and "friends".

 

[MissAutobahn]

... most car makers built plants in countries where a lot of their cars were sold. Not only was it cheaper, but it bought goodwill from those county's customers too. Tesla will eventually do this, but right now they aren't quite big enough to do that.

from 2019 on it would be the best option for Tesla, after production of M3 in Fremont runs perfect.
from 2020 on Tesla builds machines to build the M3-machine and put them worldwide where sales are splendid

 

[jbcarioca]

...
I think Tesla will get around any potential blocks to sales overseas by building factories in China and Europe. There is a lot of interest in Tesla opening plants overseas.

When the US forced Japan to start making cars in the US, everyone discovered that it's a lot cheaper to make cars nearer where they are sold than to ship them over seas and most car makers built plants in countries where a lot of their cars were sold. Not only was it cheaper, but it bought goodwill from those county's customers too. Tesla will eventually do this, but right now they aren't quite big enough to do that.

I hope the following will not be too political. It is intended to describe Tesla risks today, and explain why capital-raising right now for tesla just might be harder than it was a year ago. On the other hand, what do the investors have to lose by supporting Tesla that they might not lose anyway if things go in a certain direction in the US and worldwide?:
I was trying to be simple, but was, of course, simplistic instead. You're correct by definition. Nissan and Toyota beat the US tax on pickup trucks decades ago by putting the beds on in the US. Tesla now has an assembly plant in the Netherlands; I like the Bloomberg gushing article:
Check Out Tesla's Hot New European Factory
Tesla also will certainly make more investments in lithium production with adjacent factories to build cells.
China assembly/building seems highly likely once Model 3 is up and running, with others around also.
All of that will insulate Tesla locally, at lease, to some degree.

Still, as almost everyone with an advanced degree and/or a literate outlook knows, a President Trump probably cannot do most of what he has promised. Even so, we already see the Mexican Peso and the Canadian Loonie wildly fluctuating with campaign ebbs and flows. Living as I do in Brazil and working globally I am constantly asked to explain how his candidacy is possible. My typical response is that in a world with growing influence of Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, Frauke Petry...all in Europe in countries that have prized their progressive legacy post World War II. All those and many more in Europe and elsewhere are discovering a rich vein of racism, jingoism, ethnic purity and rigid nationalistic anti-globa,l anti-immigrant, anti-Moslem in the less successful, less-well-educated among them. They all share admiration for Mr. Putin and other strongmen and aspire to join their ranks.

So, I tell them that Trump is nothing more nor less than all those others. Every one is appealing to people who feel left behind, who are sufficiently ignorant that they will not question loudly proclaimed nationalistic rhetoric. I also say the world has no seen such extreme polarisation since the early 1930's, and we are flirting with that global disaster once again, but this time with nuclear weapons and extremism rampant in many major countries, not to mention less-major ones.

The primary risk to Tesla is that even the factory workers there deal with high technology. Even the mining is not the backbreaking labor of West Virginia strip-mining. Tesla can grow as 100% American with or without official government support, but they cannot change that the CEO is an immigrant. Were there to be a Trump presidency it is unlikely that the Musk vision will be well received. What effect the possible disdain might take is another question, and I doubt that anything specific would directly harm Tesla. That said, if economic analysis is any guide, a rapid and substantial worldwide recession would be highly likely. That would probably be enough to wipe out Tesla. I would not worry much about taht outcome because our problems would be far worse than just losing Tesla.

The foregoing sounds apocalyptic. I am hearing these sentiments from major business leaders everywhere I go. Almost all of them are trying not to make anyone panic but they are worried. That is enough to cause deferral of capital investments with a consequent effort to increase liquidity and reduce leverage. That is happening in countries as disparate as Japan, the UK, Brazil and could easily spread. If the US avoids this potential crisis there will still be a stronger tendency to form global alliances of the like minds. That will not be good for Tesla.

 

[Intl Professor]

This is unclear to me about any direct impact on Tesla, but there is another less widely reported problem with a Trump presidency.

Donald Trump and the Return of Seditious Libel

It does get to the generic problem we have with politicians who tell lies and seem to get away with it, at least short term. ProPublica is surely a muck raking organization but it is highly regarded. (Has received a Pulitzer Prize and other press awards.)

In Russia, with no equivalent to the First Amendment, Putin has achieved almost complete control over the broadcast media.

 

[jbcarioca]

...
In Russia, with no equivalent to the First Amendment, Putin has achieved almost complete control over the broadcast media.

I have some experience in that country, and have two clients there. It is unquestionably true that free enterprise is inhibited directly by the lack of transparency and fear of 'unofficial' censure. I shall relate no specifics, after all the people are still there. Tesla is a fairly free-wheeling enterprise, so to speak, that does not hide from controversy. Were there to be any official chilling of press freedom of freedom of speech tesla would surely suffer. Would that happen? I do not pretend to know. We are told to be fearful of threats to our freedoms.

 

[Intl Professor]

Ignore campaign promises and rhetoric. Watch what they actually DO, not what they say they do or want to do.

Always good advice. I'm not quite a cynic yet, a skeptic, yes, in the sense of Ortega y Gasset: "People are wrong about skeptics. It's not that they believe in nothing. On the contrary, they believe in practically everything." Or some such.

I voted for Bernie and his fund raising from little guys like me was historic. There is room for that kind of politician, up to a limit, but wait until Elizabeth Warren runs; then we shall see.

 

[Chopr147]

Pocahontas? God forbid!

 

[wdolson]

I hope the following will not be too political. It is intended to describe Tesla risks today, and explain why capital-raising right now for tesla just might be harder than it was a year ago. On the other hand, what do the investors have to lose by supporting Tesla that they might not lose anyway if things go in a certain direction in the US and worldwide?:
I was trying to be simple, but was, of course, simplistic instead. You're correct by definition. Nissan and Toyota beat the US tax on pickup trucks decades ago by putting the beds on in the US. Tesla now has an assembly plant in the Netherlands; I like the Bloomberg gushing article:
Check Out Tesla's Hot New European Factory

I'm not exactly sure what the factory in the Netherlands does, but I think it's just final assembly of cars mostly built in California. I would think Tesla could get faster turn around on European orders by shipping cars that have not been ordered yet to Europe with all the options left off along with sets of parts for options. Then the factory in the Netherlands could complete cars to orders as they come in.

Tesla also will certainly make more investments in lithium production with adjacent factories to build cells.
China assembly/building seems highly likely once Model 3 is up and running, with others around also.
All of that will insulate Tesla locally, at lease, to some degree.

Investing in nickel and cobalt production is more important. Their cells have more nickel and cobalt than lithium. Though they are working to reduce the cobalt and replace it with more nickel.

Still, as almost everyone with an advanced degree and/or a literate outlook knows, a President Trump probably cannot do most of what he has promised. Even so, we already see the Mexican Peso and the Canadian Loonie wildly fluctuating with campaign ebbs and flows. Living as I do in Brazil and working globally I am constantly asked to explain how his candidacy is possible. My typical response is that in a world with growing influence of Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, Frauke Petry...all in Europe in countries that have prized their progressive legacy post World War II. All those and many more in Europe and elsewhere are discovering a rich vein of racism, jingoism, ethnic purity and rigid nationalistic anti-globa,l anti-immigrant, anti-Moslem in the less successful, less-well-educated among them. They all share admiration for Mr. Putin and other strongmen and aspire to join their ranks.

My SO is a lawyer and taught legal writing. She is quick to point out when Trump makes illegal and unconstitutional claims. She speaks up often. Spitballing it, I would say over half his proposals violate US statute, if not the constitution. The problem is he would try a lot of these things. He really has no idea what the US constitution says and doesn't really seem to want to learn.

So, I tell them that Trump is nothing more nor less than all those others. Every one is appealing to people who feel left behind, who are sufficiently ignorant that they will not question loudly proclaimed nationalistic rhetoric. I also say the world has no seen such extreme polarisation since the early 1930's, and we are flirting with that global disaster once again, but this time with nuclear weapons and extremism rampant in many major countries, not to mention less-major ones.

I've read a lot of history all my life and the political parallels f the world today with the 1930s with the 1930s is chilling. Both extreme liberals as well as extreme authoritarians are popping up all over the world. Even if Trump loses this election, we need to take a collective look at ourselves.

The primary risk to Tesla is that even the factory workers there deal with high technology. Even the mining is not the backbreaking labor of West Virginia strip-mining. Tesla can grow as 100% American with or without official government support, but they cannot change that the CEO is an immigrant. Were there to be a Trump presidency it is unlikely that the Musk vision will be well received. What effect the possible disdain might take is another question, and I doubt that anything specific would directly harm Tesla. That said, if economic analysis is any guide, a rapid and substantial worldwide recession would be highly likely. That would probably be enough to wipe out Tesla. I would not worry much about taht outcome because our problems would be far worse than just losing Tesla.

A worldwide economic collapse like 2008 is possible again. The Great Depression started with economic problems in the early 1920s that were patched up. Those problems came back to roost 8-10 years later. That could happen again.

The foregoing sounds apocalyptic. I am hearing these sentiments from major business leaders everywhere I go. Almost all of them are trying not to make anyone panic but they are worried. That is enough to cause deferral of capital investments with a consequent effort to increase liquidity and reduce leverage. That is happening in countries as disparate as Japan, the UK, Brazil and could easily spread. If the US avoids this potential crisis there will still be a stronger tendency to form global alliances of the like minds. That will not be good for Tesla.

For most of the last century the US has been considered the world's most stable economy. That's why people tend to buy US bonds when things get bad. However, the US's politics have become volatile and the world is nervous. Whatever either presidential candidate does, a Clinton election would broadcast more stable vibes through the world economic markets. Whether people agree with her policies or not, she's predictable.

Always good advice. I'm not quite a cynic yet, a skeptic, yes, in the sense of Ortega y Gasset: "People are wrong about skeptics. It's not that they believe in nothing. On the contrary, they believe in practically everything." Or some such.

I voted for Bernie and his fund raising from little guys like me was historic. There is room for that kind of politician, up to a limit, but wait until Elizabeth Warren runs; then we shall see.

I strongly doubt she will ever run. She has made it clear the Senate is as high in government she ever wants to go. It may not be an issue to some, but she's 67 now. In 2020 she will be 71 and I doubt any serious Democrats are going to run in 2020 if Hillary wins and decides to run for re-election. That would make her 75 in 2024.

I suspect Bernie Sanders is going to be out there beating the bushes recruiting like minded politicians. His organization has already planned to run a Bernie supporting candidate in every congressional district in 2018. I think the newly formed liberal wing of the Democratic party will bring up some younger liberals to run in future presidential elections. Considering how liberal the millennials are, the interest will be strong for the next 30 years.

 

[kort677]

Pocahontas? God forbid!

fauxcohantas
Moderator input: That's it. You're done. You are welcome to continue your activity on the internet in sites that specialize in smarmy one-liners with no redeeming value.

 

[bh1783]

U.S. regulators accuse Palantir of bias against Asians
Peter Thiel . . .