How many kWh can they squeeze into the Model 3...?

[Garlan Garner]

I was conflating two points. One is that this trip will be impossible in a 300-mile range Tesla without a supercharger being added, and as you've stated, that will hopefully be addressed at some point.

But more important to me, I don't want to stop for 20-30 minutes during this round-trip to supercharge. I want to drive 2.5 hours to get there, unload my kid & his stuff, maybe stop somewhere for a bite to eat (no destination chargers in the area either), and then get my ass back home. I wouldn't be very happy to have to extend my trip, but that's the type of tradeoff I would have to end up making. Would I rather drive those 310 miles on electricity, or have an extra 30 minutes of my day?

You won't have to stop during the route. You said it was 300 miles "round trip". Any Telsa can get you there without charging. Charge overnight then. You don't have to use a Tesla SC. You can charge up right before you come home.

EV Trip Planner

 

[Jayc]

300 miles EPA is NOT the same as 300 miles real world driving. I wish that it is. Electric car is still at least 10 years away from matching ICE cars in real world range. You need at least 400 miles EPA at absolutely bare minimum to even have a chance. A reasonable expectation is 500 miles EPA to have a real world range of 300 miles plus, which would match ICE cars.

I will charge my M3 at home overnight and by morning it will have more than enough range for our daily commute. We also have a Toyota hybrid which we will use for long journeys especially if SC access is not practical on that route. My point is, comparing with ICE purely on EPA range is a pointless exercise depending on how you use your EV. You also have to understand that charging at home is never going to be possible with an ICE or FCV so in that sense, the comparison with ICE already favours EVs.

On the other hand, if you do long journeys regularly and cannot afford to wait at a SC for half an hour then perhaps an EV is not a good match for your requirement.

 

[Garlan Garner]

A 75D with SC for life, for $42,000!? Yes, please!!
​

I love it - $42K super charging for life.

I hope there is a pre packaged "Everything" version that encompasses all options. Maybe an additional $13K ( instead of 15K ) because Its pre-packaged. Total $55K.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I have tested a couple of ICE cars before in long road trips that consistently get over 300 miles (real world) per tank even after very aggressive driving and at very high speed (aggressive acceleration throughout and 85 mph for most part of the trip). And my cars are not even those big SUV and pickup where it typical has even more real world range. If the longest range Tesla (90D Model S) is driven the same way, you would be lucky to get 180 miles in real world range.

I have never seen EPA range in an ICE being advertised, but if there is really such thing as ICE EPA range. I wondering why ICE vs Electric EPA range would yield consistently very different results in the real world range. 180 miles real world vs 300 miles real world is very different result if both are claiming the same 300 miles EPA range.

Who is trying to match EV range with ICE range?

ICE does not have a range. Its range is based on the size of the gas tank and how much gas is in the tank ( and the engine consumption ). But who cares? The range of ICE cars far exceeded the needed range of everyone or else they would buy a plane ticket. Well, I'll take that back because there are people out there that for some reason "run out of gas".

My question still remains - Who said that there is an objective for EV cars to match the range of ICE cars? That's like saying that ICE cars have to match the acceleration of EV cars. That's Ludicrous. ( see what I did there?).

 

[cronosx]

I was conflating two points. One is that this trip will be impossible in a 300-mile range Tesla without a supercharger being added, and as you've stated, that will hopefully be addressed at some point.

But more important to me, I don't want to stop for 20-30 minutes during this round-trip to supercharge. I want to drive 2.5 hours to get there, unload my kid & his stuff, maybe stop somewhere for a bite to eat (no destination chargers in the area either), and then get my ass back home. I wouldn't be very happy to have to extend my trip, but that's the type of tradeoff I would have to end up making. Would I rather drive those 310 miles on electricity, or have an extra 30 minutes of my day?

but then, you don't need to.. you can charge 15min, and then during the return another 15min, just te time to get a snack and break the trip

this is the good thing of many supercharger or fast charger, you can make multiple 'low time' stop instead of a big 'high time' stop, wich is really not a bad thing

 

[Garlan Garner]

but then, you don't need to.. you can charge 15min, and then during the return another 15min, just te time to get a snack and break the trip

I believe he is saying that he does not want to charge AT ALL - either coming or going.

I suppose he could rent an ICE.

 

[jbcarioca]

What is the appeal of 48v?

Adding to my brief explanation, the link here is from today's Automotive News, discussing Delphi's 48v one-off example. In sum, 48v provides the capacity to advance hybrid, stop-start and advanced electronic aids while improving economy in the process. As the article states, 48v will be more expensive than current production 12v, however the article ignores the potential impact of scale economies, improved electrical stability and more efficient electrical processes overall. That is understandable; there are no production systems at the moment.
Automotive News - Traverse City - August 4, 2016 - 20

 

[jbcarioca]

This is true as long as one only looks at one part at a time, but the whole drive train consists of many ~90% efficient parts, connected in series:
- extraction of energy out of the battery: 10% goes into heating the battery, 90% to the controler
- inverter: 10% goes into heating the inverter, 90% to the motor
- motor: 10% goes into heating the stator and rotor, 90% goes into rotation
- reduction gears and differential: 2% goes into heat, 98% into torque on the output shafts
- half-shaft and wheel bearings: 2% goes into heat, 98% goes "through"
- brake-drag: 2% goes into heat, 98% goes "through"
- tire-drag: 10% goes into heat, 90% goes "through"
- auxiliary systems: 10% goes into heat, 90% goes into useful work

Feel free to replace efficiencies of parts with more accurate numbers.
Above chain of very efficient parts results in 55% overall efficiency. Replace all parts with others that have only half the losses and overall efficiency rises to 75% - one third improvement of range with same battery capacity, say 300 miles instead of just 220.
Efficiency is "system metrics".

Regardless of the actual numbers for each component we do know that substantial materials improvements is rapidly reducing electrical resistance in a wide variety of energy-transmission applications. Each such advance reduces heat, thus wastage, and reduces the amount of power required to do work. In this respect mobile phones, laptop computers and other devices are all becoming much more efficient.

The problem from a consumer perspective is that energy demand to operate a plethora of new features tends to consume the energy faster than advances in efficiency. Think, for example, about "location services" in mobile phones. They did not exist 15 years ago and now typically can consumer more than half the total energy available.

BEV's differ only because propulsion itself is by far the largest load. Still, passive loads in an S today typically consume more than 1% per day of available energy. Reducing those loads by, say, 40%, will be a very major advance.

Not only are all those drivetrain components improvable by 40% or more in the next few years (maybe even in the next year) but aerodynamic improvements are a huge factor. There is a real reason why a BMW i3 at highway speeds consume more energy than does a P85D at highway speeds. Tesla works hard on aerodynamics, so the Model 3 should be a significant advance over the Model S.

In aggregate I will be quite surprised if we will not see 10% pa aggregate efficiency improvements in BEV's during the next five years. I have no longer-term guess because I fully expect some major discontinuities before the next decade is out. We should remember that the massive investments in electrical efficiency, from batteries through transmission and consumption, date pretty much from less than five years ago. Who can predict what all that investment may bring?

 

[MiamiNole]

Model ☰ 55
$35,000 base price
215 to 225 miles range
Get Dual Motor AWD as a separate option to be Model ☰ 55D (230 to 255 miles range)
Get software unlock of battery pack to get Model ☰ 75 (270 to 300 miles range) with Free for Life Supercharger access
Up to $15,000 of other options available beyond base configuration
Model ☰ 75D
$42,000 base price
280 to 310 miles range
Free for Life Supercharger access included
Up to $15,000 of other options available beyond base configuration
Model ☰ P100D
$50,000 base price
320 to 360 miles range
Free for Life Supercharger access included
Up to $15,000 of other options available beyond base configuration

Wait, so if I want the 75kWh battery and FREE for LIFE Supercharger access, but DON'T want Dual Motor AWD, the only option is to drive around with a vehicle badged as a Model ☰ 55, even though it really is a Model ☰ 75? That is simply UNACCEPTABLE! I would rightfully demand that my car be properly badged!

 

[cronosx]

if you upgrade they said that you can go to a service center and they'll rebadge your car

 

[MiamiNole]

if you upgrade they said that you can go to a service center and they'll rebadge your car

Drats, now I have to put my faux rage on hold...

 

[JeffK]

I have no doubt that it is possible to engineer the Model 3 to fit a 100 kWh battery, the question is if they should.

Of course they should, a 100 kWh pack with 21700 isn't terribly heavy and as the cost drives towards $100/kWh you'd be looking at $10,000 plus margins.

We don't know the future cost of the 21700 cells just yet but let's say they aren't at $100/kWh until 2020 but are cheaper than $190/kWh with today's 18650 based batteries. Let's say $150 / kWh then with a base model of say 55 kWh ($8250) vs 100 kWh ($15000). A difference of $6750 let's tack on 30% margins and you'd be talking under $10,000 for a premium option of a 100 kWh Model 3 if Tesla is willing to do it.

Imagine a 100 kWh Model 3 which is lighter and has a better drag coefficient than an equivalent Model S. Imagine the range, imagine the power, imagine how fast you could charge that thing!

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is true as long as one only looks at one part at a time, but the whole drive train consists of many ~90% efficient parts, connected in series:
- extraction of energy out of the battery: 10% goes into heating the battery, 90% to the controler
- inverter: 10% goes into heating the inverter, 90% to the motor
- motor: 10% goes into heating the stator and rotor, 90% goes into rotation
- reduction gears and differential: 2% goes into heat, 98% into torque on the output shafts
- half-shaft and wheel bearings: 2% goes into heat, 98% goes "through"
- brake-drag: 2% goes into heat, 98% goes "through"
- tire-drag: 10% goes into heat, 90% goes "through"
- auxiliary systems: 10% goes into heat, 90% goes into useful work

Feel free to replace efficiencies of parts with more accurate numbers.
Above chain of very efficient parts results in 55% overall efficiency. Replace all parts with others that have only half the losses and overall efficiency rises to 75% - one third improvement of range with same battery capacity, say 300 miles instead of just 220.
Efficiency is "system metrics".

The only problem I have with numbers such as these is that you don't know when they were created or if they are current.

Even if they are correct "today".... ( in the words of Elon Musk...) The average improvement of technology on a daily basis is .5%.

 

[ScepticMatt]

Tesla Motors currently owns something like 99.999995% of the long range fully electric vehicle market. Once the Chevrolet BOLT arrives, that might drop to 'only' 99.95% instead. I think a lot of the speculation as to TSLA is based upon the notion that the long range fully electric vehicle market will continue to grow, and that Tesla Motors will maintain more than 90% of it for a very long time.

Your numbers are way off, even if you include "dramatic emphasization".

There is more than 1 long range fully electric vehicle for ever 20 Million Tesla cars. Just look at electric buses with longer range. Tesla cars aren't going to outsell the Chevy Bolt 2000:1. Is Chevy going to sell less than 250 cars in 2018? Now I feel 10:1 is possible for a while until the Chinese start making more "long range fully electric vehicles".

 

[Garlan Garner]

Your numbers are way off, even if you include "dramatic emphasization".

There is more than 1 long range fully electric vehicle for ever 20 Million Tesla cars. Just look at electric buses with longer range. Tesla cars aren't going to outsell the Chevy Bolt 2000:1. Is Chevy going to sell less than 250 cars in 2018? Now I feel 10:1 is possible for a while until the Chinese start making more "long range fully electric vehicles".

Long range? What do you define as long range?

Hybrids are excluded.

 

[jbcarioca]

...Now I feel 10:1 is possible for a while until the Chinese start making more "long range fully electric vehicles".

Oops, they already do. BYD makes a taxi with 250 mile range today. That's not to mention the busses and coaches or the JV electrics.
BYD Auto

 

[Red Sage]

Wait, so if I want the 75kWh battery and FREE for LIFE Supercharger access, but DON'T want Dual Motor AWD, the only option is to drive around with a vehicle badged as a Model ☰ 55, even though it really is a Model ☰ 75? That is simply UNACCEPTABLE! I would rightfully demand that my car be properly badged!

Uhm... No. If you ordered the Model ☰ 55 with the battery upgrade, you would receive a car marked Model ☰ 75. If you ordered a regular Model ☰ 55, then decided to request the battery upgrade after taking delivery, the Service Center would change the badging on the car to Model ☰ 75 when you brought it in to have the upgrade done. They would also change the firmware in the car to display the correct designation on the center screen at the page where your VIN # is show. Easy.

 

[Red Sage]

Your numbers are way off, even if you include "dramatic emphasization".

There is more than 1 long range fully electric vehicle for ever 20 Million Tesla cars. Just look at electric buses with longer range. Tesla cars aren't going to outsell the Chevy Bolt 2000:1. Is Chevy going to sell less than 250 cars in 2018? Now I feel 10:1 is possible for a while until the Chinese start making more "long range fully electric vehicles".

I am not aware of any battery operated buses with a range greater than 50 miles. And buses are not passenger cars. For the sake of comparison, 'long range' starts at 200 miles in my analysis. I'm also not talking so much about sales ratios, so much as I am installed user bases. To my knowledge, only the 93 kWh version of the Rimac Concept One claims to offer 300+ miles of range as a street legal fully electric vehicle, and they've sold maybe two dozen of them in the past three or four years... All the others I am aware of only offer 150 miles or less of range. But yes, there is some hyperbole in my writing for emphatic effect.

 

[jbcarioca]

I am not aware of any battery operated buses with a range greater than 50 miles. And buses are not passenger cars. For the sake of comparison, 'long range' starts at 200 miles in my analysis. I'm also not talking so much about sales ratios, so much as I am installed user bases. To my knowledge, only the 93 kWh version of the Rimac Concept One claims to offer 300+ miles of range as a street legal fully electric vehicle, and they've sold maybe two dozen of them in the past three or four years... All the others I am aware of only offer 150 miles or less of range. But yes, there is some hyperbole in my writing for emphatic effect.

I repeat BYD Auto
They are mostly in China but the y are the world's largest producer of electric vehicles and have a 250 mile car plus busses and coaches.

 

[Red Sage]

I repeat BYD Auto
They are mostly in China but the y are the world's largest producer of electric vehicles and have a 250 mile car plus busses and coaches.

I was responding to a post above the one you just repeated. I have only just read your subsequent replies. I'll investigate the link. I'm on my way to pick up someone from the airport now. C'ya!