The all new 2014 S Class is doing quite well all over the world.
OT!
? I thought it was introduced in 2013?
Or are you confusing american model years with actual years?
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The all new 2014 S Class is doing quite well all over the world.
In EU, only production dates are relevant. If it is produced in 2013, it is officially a 2013 model. Just like Tesla.It was and is the 2014 S Class. I did not confuse anything.
Re-posting an updated version of my chart. It seems that Tesla is going to deliver around 3400 cars to Europe in this quarter. I also project that Tesla will deliver around 14,200 Model S to Europe this year with a quarterly break down of: 3056 cars in Q1, 3400 cars in Q2, 3800 cars in Q3, and 4000 cars in Q4. Tesla is expanding rapidly in Europe as they have 15 stores coming soon as well as 20 service centers coming soon. Also, the supercharger map for Europe shows 120+ locations for Winter 2014-2015. I suspect that European deliveries will continue to grow as there is expansion in the number of stores, service centers, and superchargers. Europe could grow to be the same deliveries as the US had in 2013, which would be about 18,000 deliveries. Also, in Europe, deliveries seem to be more reflective of demand than in the US. Currently, the wait time in all European countries is 4-5 months, which translates to a backlog of at least 4000 cars (potentially all the way up to 6000+).
Please inform me of any mistakes in the spreadsheet. I use http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ as the source for my numbers, and the rest of the numbers come from this thread.
Re-posting an updated version of my chart. It seems that Tesla is going to deliver around 3400 cars to Europe in this quarter. I also project that Tesla will deliver around 14,200 Model S to Europe this year with a quarterly break down of: 3056 cars in Q1, 3400 cars in Q2, 3800 cars in Q3, and 4000 cars in Q4. Tesla is expanding rapidly in Europe as they have 15 stores coming soon as well as 20 service centers coming soon. Also, the supercharger map for Europe shows 120+ locations for Winter 2014-2015. I suspect that European deliveries will continue to grow as there is expansion in the number of stores, service centers, and superchargers. Europe could grow to be the same deliveries as the US had in 2013, which would be about 18,000 deliveries. Also, in Europe, deliveries seem to be more reflective of demand than in the US. In addition the current wait time in all European countries is 4-5 months, which translates to a backlog of at least 4000 cars (potentially all the way up to 6000+).
With Norway, Netherlands and Germany number is out, it sounds TM only delivered 1K or slightly more in April and May to EU. So to meet 3400 forcast, a 2400 to go in June? Which is more than 2193 in March. Will see frantic delivery again by end of quarter? Really can't understand this delivery pattern especially 1K cars supposed to be in the pipe by end of Q1.
I like your table, and your forecasts. Given the recent deliveries of RHD in UK, what are the UK numbers in your forecast for Q2, Q3 and Q4? Also, how many deliveries do you forecast for Norway?
I doubt the current data would be of much use. In March, they had 2 weeks at the end of the month with about 100 deliveries per day. The cars might not have arrived yet.I suspect that the total for April and May in Europe will be close to 1100, leaving 2300 for March. I'm not sure whether March was an anomaly, or something that we will be seeing again. I saw your post about China having a frenzy-like delivery rate, which makes me less sure that Europe will be the same as in March. If there are 1000 deliveries in China in Q2, and 3400 for Europe, that leaves 3100+ for the US (which seems about right). I don't see 2000 cars in China given the information that you provided, but 1500 is certainly possible. It seems that there are about 500 cars that are either going to China (to make the total 1500) or to Europe (to make the total 3400). I PM'ed the guy who initially mentioned the delivery frenzy in Norway (towards the end of March) to ask whether he has anything about this month yet.
Please inform me of any mistakes in the spreadsheet. I use http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ as the source for my numbers, and the rest of the numbers come from this thread.
"aggressive build out in Germany"... yeah, the numbers are indeed truly impressive.
57 Model S were registered in May (48 April, 143 March)
Compared to
171 BMW 7 series
173 VW Phaeton (seriously? 3:1 outsold by the Phaeton? that hurts)
211 Porsche Panerama
252 BMW 6 series
274 Audi A8/S8
355 Audi A7/S7/RS7
395 Mercedes CLS
905 Mercedes S (!!!!!)
It did outsell the Maserati Quatroporte (19) and the Bentley Continental (33)
I continue to be absolutely puzzled by the people talking up the success in Germany and the amazing market this will be.
I guess the one silver lining is that Model S is up ~20% while the "Upperclass" (Oberklasse) of cars overall was up only 2%
I'm too lazy to go back but I remember the posts after the 143 in March talking about the doubling month over month. Which gets us to 570 cars in Mai, right? Hey, only off by a factor of ten.
But who's counting. Clearly not the people who keep talking about what a great market Germany is for the Model S.
Sorry if I sound snarky. But clearly the data don't support the hype.
Yeah it's also underperforming in china and England. Very few cars delivered. Hong Kong a disaster no cars delivered. Depends on your time frame doesn't itI don't think I'm missing your point at all. I just disagree with it. The investment in Germany is admirable and a necessary requirement for success, but it is not creating a commensurate return. The Portland store delivered more Model S last month than all of Germany. There is a long long long thread elsewhere about all the reasons why Tesla is underperforming in Germany. Opening more stores is not going to address those.
I do find it interesting that, no so many months ago, Elon was touting Germany as a high priority market for Tesla. China now seems to be the darling, although Tesla does continue to invest in building out the SC network in Germany. Has Tesla shifted focus away from Europe to Asia (the "pivot to Asia"?)Yeah it's also underperforming in china and England. Very few cars delivered. Hong Kong a disaster no cars delivered. Depends on your time frame doesn't it
He did state a priority and is still treating it as such. Perhaps German pride underestimated but still staying the course. There is need to build out superchargers there for the rest of Europe anyway. I believe they will have success but will take time. There is risk of not concentrating on single area but I do not believe inconsistent with treating both Asia and Europe as prioritiesI do find it interesting that, no so many months ago, Elon was touting Germany as a high priority market for Tesla. China now seems to be the darling, although Tesla does continue to invest in building out the SC network in Germany. Has Tesla shifted focus away from Europe to Asia (the "pivot to Asia"?)
I do find it interesting that, no so many months ago, Elon was touting Germany as a high priority market for Tesla. China now seems to be the darling, although Tesla does continue to invest in building out the SC network in Germany. Has Tesla shifted focus away from Europe to Asia (the "pivot to Asia"?)
I don't think I'm missing your point at all. I just disagree with it. The investment in Germany is admirable and a necessary requirement for success, but it is not creating a commensurate return. The Portland store delivered more Model S last month than all of Germany. There is a long long long thread elsewhere about all the reasons why Tesla is underperforming in Germany. Opening more stores is not going to address those.
There is another point. Most of the Model S bought in the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland (plus from all the other countries) and Norway will drive on the German Autobahn quite frequently. A dense SC coverage in Germany is a big plus for those markets! Borders here are quite open these days....Are you telling me Tesla is wasting money opening new stores? They are opening more stores, service centers, and supercharging stations just to sell the same amount of cars? Elon did tell his team to spend money as fast as they could, but he also said not to waste it. In my books, opening more stores without creating more demand is a waste of money. Also, I stress again that a key component in Germany is time; buyers must be completely convinced that a foreign product is worthy because of national pride, and that takes time. Germany is currently the 4th largest market for Tesla in the world, and although that will change as the UK and China come online, Germany deliveries will continue to grow.