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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/

More info on the new case.

A 65-year-old resident of Santa Clara County, Calif., who has no known history of travel to countries hit hard by the outbreak, has tested positive for coronavirus, people familiar with the case said Friday.

There is no known connection between the new patient and anyone else diagnosed with the disease, known as covid-19. On Wednesday, health authorities revealed the nation’s first case of community transmission, a woman in Solano County, about 90 miles away.

Two separate clusters possibly of community spread in Cali now.
 
Question about the N95 masks - they've become awfully difficult to find, at least around where I'm at. I'm wondering about efficacy for this purpose of the N100 masks. I found 1 of those at a local hardware store - the packaging sounds to me (as a non-medical professional) like it's the same as an N95 mask, only finer particulates (N95's looking like something carpenters use for wood dust and similar, while N100's are something you use for lead paint, mold, etc.. remediation).

So I grabbed one of the N100's in case I need something like this later (or I wasted $20 -I'm ok either way, with N95's getting WAY, WAY more expensive or non-existent).
IIRC the number refers to the pore size. If that is correct than an N100 is a lot better choice than the regular surgical masks I see people wearing. To be clear: the regular surgical masks are fine for people who are infected and trying to avoid spreading infectious aerosols when they cough or sneeze. The masks with filters are meant to be used by healthy people trying to avoid getting infected when they are in close contact to sick people.
 
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Why is it only the left leaning people here who don't have enough self control to stop posting political rants? I really would like to use this forum to learn about coronavirus but you guys are making it impossible.

??? How is that a 'political rant' Those are just facts on the ground. The people that are serving food and working retail (people that have A LOT of exposure to other people) are unlikely to be able to take time off OR see a doctor if they're sick. How do you expect that to influence the spread of COVID-19?

I propose we work to fix that so maybe we're ready for the next one... probably too late this time. Why is it people on the right so often conflate problem solving with 'political rants'?

This is an interesting idea;
As Mainland China Coronavirus Cases Continue To Climb, One City Offers $1,400 Reward For Patients Who Self-Report
 
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I'm saving my mask for things that matter:

beer-masks.jpg
 
Why is it only the left leaning people here who don't have enough self control to stop posting political rants? I really would like to use this forum to learn about coronavirus but you guys are making it impossible.

The short answer is that trumper scientists or physicians are distinctly uncommon, and when they pop up you probably do not want to read them.

Let me rephrase your comment though:
"I only accept free expertise if it passes my ideological sniff test."
 
I'm not ready to say China is lying, but:

1. Locking 3500 people on a cruise ship caused rampant spread. Reports indicate rapid spread in prisons. But locking 57 million people in high rise apartment buildings stopped COVID-19 dead in it's tracks? Maybe, but...

2. Locking down 4% of the population for a month is a direct 0.3% hit to annual GDP. A minor blip for a 6% (officially) grower like China. But the ripple effect was far more severe. They can't expand this lockdown. So maybe it's better to turn Hubei into a giant Diamond Princess while other provinces play whack-a-mole like the rest of the world?

3. Even if the national government wants good numbers, are they getting them? Or did cities get the memo that honest reporting will lead to a crippling lockdown?

4. There was a mass pre-lockdown exodus from the Wuhan area. My gut feel is the relatively few who escaped overseas seem to have a much higher infection rate than the million or so who escaped to other places in China.

5. Lockdowns slow the spread of seasonal flu and other illnesses in addition to COVID-19. The overall flow into hospitals (and morgues) might actually decline even if COVID-19 cases were still spiking.

6. Outside of China the prevailing opinion among non-politician epidemiologist types is that we've moved from containment to mitigation. Absent Trump's 'miracle', we're just buying time. Why would they feel this way if China has achieved containment?

None of these arguments convince me China is lying, but I'm starting to lean that way.

I always find it incredible that people believe in things that CCP says. Whereas most people start off their interaction with CCP with the basis of trust and later slowly shed their trust. I start off any sort of interaction with CCP with full distrust and they have not managed to build any semblance of trust for me to discard this stance.

In any case, I am biased against CCP due to many personal experiences so take it with a grain of salt.
 
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/

More info on the new case.

Two separate clusters possibly of community spread in Cali now.

1 case in Oregon involving an elementary school staff and 2 more separate cases of possible community acquired cases in the state of Washington. One of the two Washington cases involve a high school student, and so the school decided they will shut it down for 3 days to do a complete scrub down. Oh btw, the kid has a sibling and so the middle is notifying families now as well.

As most parents should know, it’s going to get worse if someone at a school is infected.


Can we please stop with the infatuation with masks? I’ve already laid it out here before, but it’s the sick that need to be wearing masks. Just like any other viral infection, the nasal and saliva droplets are not going to just be suspended in the air after someone sneezes or coughs. All the germs quickly land somewhere on surfaces. Since I assume >= 90% of the population either does not wash at all or does not properly wash hands long enough, one should be wearing gloves if even bothering to wear a mask for more effective prevention.
 
Can we please stop with the infatuation with masks? I’ve already laid it out here before, but it’s the sick that need to be wearing masks. Just like any other viral infection, the nasal and saliva droplets are not going to just be suspended in the air after someone sneezes or coughs. All the germs quickly land somewhere on surfaces. Since I assume >= 90% of the population either does not wash at all or does not properly wash hands long enough, one should be wearing gloves if even bothering to wear a mask for more effective prevention.

There's a difference between surgical masks and properly fitted N95 or better masks. Surgical Masks don't provide much if any protection but N95 or better can if worn correctly (At least according to OSHA, NIH and NIOSH). Yes... hand washing is more important.

The growing threat of an influenza pandemic presents a unique challenge to healthcare workers, emergency responders, and the civilian population. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) recommends National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-approved respirators to provide protection against infectious airborne viruses in various workplace settings. The filtration efficiency of selected NIOSH-approved particulate N95 and P100 filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs) and filter cartridges was investigated against the viable MS2 virus, a non-pathogenic bacteriophage, aerosolized from a liquid suspension. Tests were performed under two cyclic flow conditions (minute volumes of 85 and 135 L/min) and two constant flow rates (85 and 270 L/min). The mean penetrations of viable MS2 through the N95 and P100 FFRs/cartridges were typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions. All N95 and P100 FFR and cartridge models assessed in this study, therefore, met or exceeded their respective efficiency ratings of 95 and 99.97% against the viable MS2 test aerosol, even under the very high flow conditions. These NIOSH-approved FFRs and particulate respirators equipped with these cartridges can be anticipated to achieve expected levels of protection (consistent with their assigned protection factor) against airborne viral agents, provided that they are properly selected, fitted, worn, and maintained.
 
Some news from Italy.
The italian strain has been isolated and studied. First findings suggest that the strain has been around since... october!
In Piacenza in november they had a spike in pneumonia cases not linked to any specific cause (like low air quality). Piacenza is very close to Codogno, one of the villages that are being quarantined.
Ricostruiti i primi mesi di vita dell’epidemia Covid-19 | La Statale News
Link is in italian but there is a study published on the journal of medical virology Early Phylogenetic Estimate Of The Effective Reproduction Number Of 2019-nCoV
 
This is a situation where it is not about the numbers. Last week it was about the numbers because there was a single large pool of infection near Wuhan that was in the process of being contained. Almost all international cases were traced directly to China and most often a single province. The risk of a worldwide outbreak depended directly on the numbers in China.

This week the state of affairs shifted dramatically. Other pools of infection have shown up that will make global containment and eradication difficult if not impossible. South Korea and Italy will likely make progress in containment but the effects won’t be visible in the numbers immediately. There are cases that are already infected but not identified yet - these are locked in and many times more than the daily number that’s published. And Iran seems determined to ignore this virus enough to be a long term and large reservoir of this disease.

So right now the decreasing numbers you cite don’t match up with worldwide pandemic risk which is increasing. That’s not to say everyone should worry too much. This is not Ebola - a similarly contagious disease with a 50% mortality rate. It’s in the same ballpark as flu. As an individual take normal flu season precautions. Government efforts to slow the spread are still worthwhile even if containment is impossible because the more it can be slowed the less saturated the healthcare system will be at the peak.

I have to politely disagree to your post.

In fact the outbreaks we are seeing in other places outside of China although increasing are not anywhere near what we have seen in China and with the lessons learned and the authorities learn every day more how to isolate and restrict the spread its unlikely that the situation get out of control.

Even in South Korea where numbers are high is very clear to everybody what the source is and how it happened. If thats clear you can stop the spread. Other places like Middle East worry me more than developed regions like Europe and North America and they may have a longer time issues to reduce new infections but the WHO will help and its a time race we are in to find appropriate medication and latter a vaccine so its all about this early days and since China did a great job to bring numbers down I am quite positive that we won't see the worse case scenarios painted from many to happen.
 
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Think about why KarenRei posts trends

The mortality(death rate) being represented by TV physicians to the public for COVID-19 in the US tends to be aproximately 2% as they now understand it. This compares with the mortality of flu being presented of about 0.1%. This seems to suggest COVID-19 is 20x more lethal than flu as I understand it in this very early experience data.

Edit: How that 0.1 vs 2.0 land as an impact in the community has many variables so I look at the mortality numbers and how they are applied to populations as pivotal data. It will change over time and experience of course.

Trends of infection are interesting and important but mortality is also a strong player in overall impact.

What I am hearing is that the time for quarantine has largely passed. This seems counter-intuitive to me but so be it. Now it is about preparations of the healthcare systems. Improving testing and treatment and minimizing obvious sources of spreading.

The economic impact is quite different from Sept 11 or war. War is stimulative as government orders baloon but disease not so much. The question will be evident in the flow of purchase orders. No purchase orders then fewer jobs and then more impact on the markets as consumers pull back. If businesses continue strong purchasing it will be a great signal but that won't be know for a period of time beyond days IMO.
 
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