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I think it depends on how likely you think that your HW4 will turn into a proper robotaxi style FSD by the time you are selling your car so the next owner may be able to monetize it. If it doesn't then I doubt it will be worth much to them because Teslas come with a decent enough basic...

Agree completely. The most useful thing on a car I ever had was a fisheye camera in the nose. Where I live it's more useful than an autopilot.

If you are serious about something then why would you box yourself into solving a much harder problem (Vision only FSD) than your competition? And then what happens to the current Tesla line up and all those claims about the HW4? If the robotaxis are running on HW4 then why can't existing HW4...

This is exactly what he promised years ago, no? Leather, rinse, repeat..

I wonder how many lawsuits they get if their robotaxis employ tech different from the regular M3s that were promised to turn into, well, robotaxis

But still, to make it to the end user, the taxi needs to be an L5 or at least a geofenced L4, no? If not taxi operators then who owns those robotaxis and is ultimately responsible when they get into accidents?

It's an investment for them, but considering that they already have the technology that works and keep expanding, I suppose they expect this to be profitable. The only reason FSD is profitable for Tesla is that there are still enough people to buy into the FOMO that Tesla so masterfully...

I wonder if there will be any market left for Tesla by 2030. Waymo is already making 50,000 paid trips per week.

Exaclty, this is how Tesla operates. I am announcing today that in five months there will be a major announcement that something huge is going to happen very-very soon.

Pretty sure this is how they will sell this ;-)

If you use 8 lidars - do you then ditch Vision completely? You probably need fewer than that if you leverage the existing Vision technology. Wikipedia says that Waymo's lidars cost $7,500 per vehicle in 2017.

A different article quotes $1000 for a lidar kit with software so I think we are talking about thousands of cars' worth of lidars. And this is only in the first quarter of this year. Let's see what Luminar reports for Q2.

Let's see what Luminar reports for the second quarter.

And that was only in the first three months of this year.

Somebody commented in a different thread that the cost of a lidar kit is between $100 and $500, which means Tesla bought thousands of them in the first three months of this year. We don't know what the total order is.

Yep. We just know that the long awaited Vision only FSD (not beta) turned out to be Supervised FSD. Which is an oxymoron. We cannot really be sure about anything beyond that. But we can have a pretty good guess about where this has been heading for the last 8 years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-surprisingly-becomes-luminars-largest-182808321.html I think this news belongs in this thread

There goes all this Vision only nonsense. Q.E.D.

Let's say for argument's sake that Tesla guys eventually manage to get to 70% fewer crashes than a human. But if the competition that doesn't limit themselves to vision only manages to get to 90% fewer crashes, then selling those vision only robotaxis won't be easy, the other guys will be...

20 crashes since December. I wonder how it compares with human driving (seems like NHTSA are curious as well, hence they are requesting Tesla to explain how their data is collected). https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/7/24151077/tesla-autopilot-nhtsa-recall-crash-data-request

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-byd-unveils-new-dolphin-ev-with-lower-starting-price-2024-02-23/#:~:text=The%20new%20Dolphin%20EV%20goes,priced%20plug%2Din%20hybrid%20sedan. How about this news from not so distant future. Even with a 60% tariff, this car is still...

Unrelated to the thread, but I think roughly 98% of news concerning Tesla are formulated in the future tense. FSD will drive better, the car will be able to park, optimus will also be able... :)

Robotaxis won't need more superchargers across the country?

Ah, so Tesla will be able to offer the same supervised self driving in China as it does in the US, this is what this news is all about? I thought at first it was about gaining access to their robotaxi technology, because that one already exists (in part because it's not Vision only)...

Meaning?..

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2024/04/29/tesla-partners-with-baidu-closer-to-offering-self-driving-in-china/ So I guess it's going to be mapping in the end? Throwing in the towel on this whole Vision only nonsense? I doubt Tesla will use different technologies in different markets.

Human brain requires far fewer examples to learn and is better suited to processing video information than current generation of computers. And it does it at a fraction of the energy. It's been nearly two years since USS have been ditched and the car still cannot park itself, something that...

I wonder how many of them knew they were only buying a "door to door" L2.

So if we were drunk then police would still write us up, right? How much more would people then pay for such an L4 that is legally an L2? And again, who will license such a solution from Tesla?

I wonder what they do after another two-three years down the road they throw in the towel on their Vision only attempt to get them to an L4/L5 (probably even an L3)? Do they ditch the robotaxi stuff and will be overtaken by the Merks and Bimmers as premium EVs with L3 or L4/L5? And won't be...

Well, they tell which humans are and are not allowed to drive, set speed limits etc. Cruise couldn't test before they convinced the regulators that it's safe enough to do so. And they are not allowed to operate them as robotaxis as a result of what happened. Which is why this whole SAE system...

As was discussed earlier in this forum, all this S4-S5 stuff is a bit beyond the point, it's subjective manufacturer's opinion of what their car can do. What really matters is what the regulators allow. Waymo is allowed to operate in fog. Tesla, as long as they continue to double down on...

So Tesla can identify as an L5 but it won't mean much in reality because as long as the CA DMV is unhappy with the technology it won't be able to deploy robotaxis in California. In this case I think the bet between spacecoin and Joey D needs to be modified. It's not what Tesla calls itself...

I suppose 2) will not arrive before 1) in any case. And L3 will have to arrive before that. Also, I am not sure it's for Tesla to declare itself an L4 or L5, it will be up to the regulators. So I think my original point is correct then. Tesla needs to be an L5 for its version of robotaxi...

Quoting from diplomat's post: L4 is designed to perform all driving tasks and fallback on its own but only in an artificially limited ODD. L5 is designed to perform all driving tasks and the fallback on its own in a wide ODD of a typical human driver (ie everywhere, day, night, all drivable...

This is precisely what I thought, and this is why I think a Tesla robotaxi needs to be an L5 while Waymo only needs to achieve an L4 in a geofenced area. Waymo is basically there already while Tesla is, well, an L2...

London is 25% of all taxis in England and Wales. So my guess is large cities are probably around 70% of all demand for this kind of technology. Maybe this will be just enough for Waymo? Why are you focusing on Tesla reaching the L4 level? L4 is enough for Waymo because they are happy to stay...

It should all be fixed in the next four months. Or there will be no robotaxis in SF, only in little suburb towns like yours.

So I am not missing anything then. This is crazy..

Does anybody here understand the logic? One would think an L4 robotaxi is a natural bet if your existing cars are already L3 and there's reasonable expectation that you have the technology to get to an L4 in the near future. But this is not where Tesla is right now, not even in the ballpark...

And.. Waymo has cameras at the front of the car, something that in my opinion is crucial but gets continuously voted down by the fanboys in the F12 forum. LIke, can't keep them clean or some other nonsense like this. And it's Tesla, not Waymo, that relies exclusively on cameras. Go figure..

Agree, and I think some of those other bits are important for the reason that doesn't get mentioned enough. Humans are vastly superior at processing video information than the best computers, for now. Both better and requiring much less energy. Which is why if you can offload some of the...

Waymo uses radar and lidars, Tesla only vision. Maybe this is the answer.

It will be a Robotaxi (Supervised) car rental service. Just another brand name, just like the FSD (Supervised) autopilot.

Mercedes used headlamp wipers years ago.. Doesn't feel like its the kind of problem that Tesla guys wouldn't be able to solve if they wanted to. It's just that it feels like 1/3 of complaints in this forum are about front visibility, and there's only one solution really, and that's to have...

Has there been definitive conclusion why a car that relies solely on vision does not have camera(s) at the front? Other than not to piss off the HW3 guys? Is it somehow easier to make the vision technology more portable (and so easier to license out) if the cameras are relatively close to each...

Oh mate, it's tough to argue when the other side's goalposts are constantly shifting. So this thread is basically just about an autopilot? If you admit that all those L4 and L5 claims are no longer in the picture then it means that all those who doubted that vision only L4 and L5 will not be...

Mostly because robotaxis are not touted anymore, and instead it's now this Supervised Full Self Driving, which is a word soup. If Elon still believed he can pull off FSD with just vision he'd continue making those claims. It was discussed a million times how humans have stereo vision, and can...

Supervised Full Self Driving is an oxymoron, like, for example, "organized chaos" :)

Then what does "F" in FSD stand for? Supervised Full Self Driving is an oxymoron, isn't it? That's the point I was making. It looks like with vision only you are achieving a glorified autopilot. For Full Self Driving, you probably need more than just vision. And that is what the discussion...