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when do everyone think TSLA will have a net income of $5 billion/quarter? and how many vehicles they would have to sell per quarter to achieve this?

Why is autopilot below par? It autosteer and keeps car in center of the lane pretty well. I know there are some phantom braking; but overall, it is fairly decent.

For all the debate whether waymo or tesla is better; I am not sure who will win. I know for sure Waymo has some level 4 geofence in Chandler, AZ: not perfect but they offer rides to public WITHOUT anyone in the driver seat. Is it financially profitable for Waymo?? probably not (because they...

People will buy it because they just can. Most people won't pay an extra $55K for 1 second faster 0-60; but some will. I think Tesla could charge an extra $75K and people will still buy it.

Correction: Model Y AWD (non performance)0-60 time is 4.8 sec .

worth it? it depends: 1) like quick acceleration: 0-60 in 4.1 seconds? 2) like autopilot (minus some phantom braking)? 3) like the supercharger network? 4) like the center infotainment? 5) like the long range? 6) similar alternative will be ID4 AWD: it is $12K cheaper (in the USA) : less...

I noticed in UK the EV6 Long range is about the same price as Model 3 SR plus.

I think in a moment like that: it would be difficult to think about climbing into the trunk to get out. Unless you do a drill on it or play it in your head multiple times, it might be difficult to even think about it during time of distress. A better option would be having something like a...

I don't think Tesla should worry much, especially in the USA. What other are lacking is the reliable supercharger network. Other automakers do make some compelling vehicles. But without reliable charging network, it makes those vehicles less competitive.

I think those that shop for value for ID4 will probably won't get the "statement" package. ID4 AWD including tax and all incentives in B.C. ($50K), Ontario ($54K), and Quebec ($47K) vs. Model Y ($80K). Model Y is certainly better in many respects: better charging network, tech ie. autopilot...

1) Troy: 165.1K 2) Fact set: 162K (from Troy's twitter above via Barron's) 3) "Analyst Consensus": 173.8K Tesla is about to reveal how many cars it sold in the first quarter of 2021 — here's what to expect 4) Others: Tesla is approaching Q1 2021's end: Here’s what TSLA bulls and bears are...

this is RBC estimate: 170K; so not wall street consensus. I think wall street consensus is going to be around that. Troy's is at 172K as of 3-16-2021. https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TESLA-INC-6344549/news/Tesla-nbsp-Should-Deliver-170-000-Automobiles-in-Q1-RBC-Capital-Says-32796386/

But it states that the model Y was done at 75 degrees? so weather was fairly good. I think 220 miles at 75 mph isn’t terrible.

You make a good point about the EV-CPO and lack of demand. I think Tesla made some financial calculations that they would be more profitable by lowering the price of LR AWD by $1K to sell more of them then to sell more of the SR RWD.

I would think Model Y ride quality would be better than the Prius Prime.

You have a good point...15 real world miles in the overall scheme of things isn't much. The Model Y SR RWD is a great value after the price drop. "only" $3K more than Model 3 SR Plus. Still get the premium interior and more cargo space. So certainly can cannibalize the Model 3. The margins...

I don't know what the take rate for FSD in Europe is; but from what I read: in China it was around 1 to 2% in Q4. So $5K may entice more; I don't how much more, but anything more than 1 or 2% is better (unless it cannibalizes that 1-2%...and remain 1 to 2%). I understand why folks in China...

I should've clarified: the deal struck with Honda: I meant the only deal I knew as far as the pools are concern. The Chinese NEV credits: I don't know much about. So far I have only seen Dan Levy who thinks Tesla will get $2 billion in reg. credits.

Dan Levy from Credit Suisse ask about regulatory credits: he thinks it is $2 billion in 2020? I can't find that from the transcript below. I am unsure if that will be true. The FCA deal was estimated at $2.2 billion (from the link below) TOTAL. From the earnings call, Zack didn't give a...

Oh geez. I hope they fix your friend's car soon.

Why your co-worker have to self-pay the rental? Doesn't Tesla give uber credits or rental if something is fixed under warranty? (unless it wasn't??)

When you say the BMW "makes automatic lane changes", all you have to do is signal and it does it (ie. you don't need to look in mirror/blindspot yourself)?

I agree with this. If folks can make $400/day then we all will quit our jobs and just buy Tesla robotaxi; there will be so many robotaxi on the roads. Will lead to no one using it ; bc we all own robotaxi . I mean even if robotaxi cost $130k to buy: at all time low interest : people can just...

Thanks for the clarification. I suppose we will see what will be said in the earnings call next week.

how much do you think Tesla can get in 2021 as far as regulatory credits goes? $0.3 billion, $0.5 billion, $1 billion???

Thank you for the info.

I didn't realize that Tesla can't just sell regulatory credits to whomever. When I look at the pools as far as EU is concern: the "Pools" look fairly set. I don't see any big manufacturer that would join Tesla's Pool. Honda is fairly small: they don't sell much in the EU, and I think the deal...

Besides that Honda deal, I just haven't seen any other deal. I suppose it is not public yet??? When you say "Gets stronger & stronger. 2020 will be used as a 'base year' -", do you meanTSLA can claim/realize $500 million or more per quarter?

Yes, I am aware that the 500K capacity was by the end of 2020. Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear: what I meant was if they did have 400K capacity and if they only produced 298K model 3/Y over 46 weeks (6 weeks shutdown for covid): it would be about 6478/week....and if covid didn't happen and...

I just hope it is not b/c the demand for model Y LR AWD for North American market is not as brisk as Tesla hoped for. I mean over the summer Elon Musk stated there won't be Model Y SR. For Tesla to reverse the course just kinda' makes me question that. If profit margins were similar (I don't...

I know that TSLA had the regulatory credits deal with FCA (between $1.4 to $1.8 billion) and recently Honda (~$100 million). In 2020, through Q3 TSLA has realized about $1.1 billion already, and I anticipate they will realize another $400 million in Q4. Does this mean they won't have much...

I didn't realize there was a battery shortage. Didn't think it was an issue in 2021.

I think the reason to NOT have the LR RWD right now is that tesla wants folks who want more range to still buy the AWD: higher profit margins. Depends on where one lives, many really don’t need AWD. But I am scratching my head a little bit with this logic also: bc SR RWD is probably less...

Thanks for all you do. Wall Street has the same numbers that you do, especially now that the total number of deliveries are out. I just don't know how their expected Non-GAAP EPS is only $0.93. Your calculation looks solid. The following link (I am unsure how accurate it is): The expected...

Do you think once Giga Berlin Model Y ramps up and fully released, it won't sell as well in Norway vs. let's say the VAG trio (Enyaq, ID4,and Q4 Etron)? My opinion only: the VAG trio might be cheaper, but the performance and brand recognition is better with the Model Y. -I didn't know Tesla...

In Norway: is it a possibility that the there is not enough model 3 this past quarter? ie. Demand exceeds supply?

Correction: I previously stated Rob's GAAP net income was: $358 million. I looked again, and it's only $274 million: so not as close as I first thought. Earnings: just release: GAAP Net income: $331 million. So you were closer. And Troy's Revenue: is on the spot!

I think Troy's total revenue numbers are too high. Rob's total revenue numbers are doable. Caveat: Rob's: GAAP net income is: $358 million and yours is: $370.8 million. pretty close.

I think non-gaap EPS will be closer to the accountant’s ($0.78/share) and rob mauer’s ($0.76/share).

very impressive. the first ride was $12.41. I put in the same addresses on uber x it is $15.71. 2nd ride was $10.24 with Waymo and Uber x is $10.55.

I am unsure of Waymo's business model and how much money they can make from this if at all (ie. can this be cheaper/better experience than uber/lyft??), but I think this is some progress. It's only 1 city now: starts with 50 sq. mile then later to 100 sq. mile. Again, I haven't seen Tesla...

Thanks for all the analysis. Maybe too good to be true: this article below the CRFA analyst states the regulatory credit estimate will be $560 million for Q3. If it is, Tesla will have a blowout quarter. Where Elon Musk and Tesla earn real credit 'eating the lunch' of auto competitors

he did write: "(no cred)" next to the rev/car so it was automotive revenue without regulatory credit so I assumed it is ASP. I didn't think of sales and leases. If it is non-gaap, then I don't think Tesla wouldn't have any problem achieving this (or at least i hope so).

Galileo Russell is estimating > $0.5 billion earnings for Q3. At 3:12 mark spreadsheet, he did estimate the ASP per vehicle to be $52.2K/vehicle. A little on the high side. The Accountant did explain to me earlier as to why the ASP would be lower this quarter. I looked on Yahoo Finance...

I think when Tesla starts to sell the Model Y RWD the demand will increase a lot more and those factories will be pretty busy. Also Giga Berlin will help with demand due to probable price drop (no tariffs).

Probably won't sell well: 1) already mentioned: 2 doors CUV?? 2) design: looks like drag coefficient will be higher than Model Y (but I don't think any CUV has drag coefficient as low as Model Y): so range will be lower per kwh

From what I read so far, it seems like Mobileye is ahead of Tesla. After all it was Mobileye that initially supplied Tesla with the camera and software until they split. Mobileye just didn't sit and do nothing. There is a reason Intel bought Mobileye for $15 billion. I am not surprised that...

Like many have said: I don’t think Tesla can increase price with the ID.4 (and it’s low price) coming over.

I think I have to agree with this...

Thanks for the link. FactSet analysts expects 144K delivery which is consistent with the expected EPS for Q3. The email is vague, but yeah I can see how it can be interpreted as just greater than 112K vehicles delivered.